Betting Long Shots for The US Open 2021
The Betting Approach for The US Open 2021
Here we are at the 3rd Major Championship of the season on the heels of 51 year old (as of today), Phil Mickelson winning the PGA Championship just a few weeks ago. The USGA has set up Torrey Pines to host the US Open for the first time since 2008, and the overwhelming consensus is that Torrey will play NOTHING like it does for the Farmers in February. I'm completely ignoring Farmers Insurance records when evaluating my players.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Torrey Pines will play, then check out the 20 Key Stats and our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
I've read every word from every transcript on site at Torrey through Wednesday, and its obvious Torrey Pines has firm and fast fairways, with thick (somewhat unpredictable) rough, and firm poa greens. The winning score predictions have ranged from -1 to -5. Something else of interest...every player with the exception of Bryson, said that Torrey plays much different than Winged Foot did last year due to the straighter and less dogleg fairways. It seems as if Torrey Pines and the USGA's efforts will in fact, do all they can to make this a fair test without a massive advantage to the bomb & gouge Bryson types.
The weather looks San Diego perfect for the entire week. Zero rain this entire week will get the conditions faster and faster as the week progresses. The wind doesn't look to be a factor whatsoever with max speeds around 10-12 all week in the late afternoons.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
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Long Shot Outright Bets for The US Open 2021
With only $50 to play with and nothing shorter than 25/1 by rule of the card, this is a tough week given the top tier names tend to take down the toughest major championship year after year. 9 of the last 10 winners were in the Top 25 in OWGR, but 7 of the last 10 had never won a major before. So, I'm going with a couple of shorter favorites, some mid range studs that I love and some long shots too juicy to avoid.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article is now down 18 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
PointsBet brings a nice number to the Cali boy as Patrick Cantlay is 22/1 on DraftKings. I've loved him all week. The ball striking. The chops to take down a strong field. The recent form. The poa putting. Full send.
- SG: Ball Striking last 2 months 23.7
- T23 at the PGA & Win* at the Memorial
- Comfortable on Poa & underrated scrambler
Pat & Ben are giving me shit on my Tony Finau love this week, but that only fuels my love! 1st time Major winner incoming...
- Gained 31.7 Strokes total in 5 US Opens
- T8 at the PGA with 5 Top 10s in 11 events in 2021
- Gains strokes on Poa a Top 10 scrambler on the PGA Tour
Another tremendous scrambler arriving to Torrey Pines is your defending Champion Golfer of the Year, Shane Lowry. He's just playing so solid right now from tee to green and suits difficult scoring conditions so well.
- Gained 30 Strokes total in 7 US Opens
- 19 SG: Ball Striking in the last 2 months
- T8 at TPC, T4 at PGA, T6 at Memorial...all tough tracks and strong fields
- Gains strokes on Poa & Top 10 scrambler in this field
Willy Z is starting to feel like Brooksy when it comes to getting up for Majors. The ball striking and balls in general when it comes to performing on the toughest stages is just too good to pass up.
- T6 in last year's US Open, T2 at the Masters, T8 at the PGA
- Poa has been his best putting surface in his short career thus far
- 18 SG: Ball Striking last 2 months
Jason Kokrak is a late bloomer, but boy is he taking full advantage now with 2 PGA TOUR wins after winning the Charles Schwab just a couple of weeks ago. The long hitting, semi Canadian has been on quite the tear with 4 top 10s in his last 7 events.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (18th)
- He's 7th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds
- SG: OTT last 24 rounds (8th)
As for the stable of triple digit long shots, all are proven winners either on the PGA TOUR or European Tour with the exception of Wyndham Clark. I've got 3 Cali boys in Homa, Steele and Clark. Bernd just won on the European Tour maybe 3 weeks ago, and his Majors record is rather impressive for a guy that spends most of his time beating up on European Tour fields. My love for Matt Wallace has been well documented, but he's played some tremendous golf this year in tough tournaments even though he's trending in the wrong direction as of very recent history. Homa and Si Woo both won in California in 2021 and arrive in solid form. Brendan Steele is a long hitting, poa putting, 3x PGA TOUR winner with 2 of his wins coming in California.
It's not very likely we get a triple digit winner at a US Open obviously, but if we did...I like the chances of Homa, Si Woo and Wallace the most. All three would be worth a good look in the Top 20 markets as well. Homa is +275 on DK, Si Woo is +400 on DK, and Wallace is +500 on PointsBet.
P. Cantlay 28/1 PointsBet $12
T. Finau 28/1 PointsBet $10
S. Lowry 50/1 PointsBet $6
W. Zalatoris 50/1 PointsBet $6
J. Kokrak 66/1 PointsBet $6
M. Homa 100/1 DraftKings $3
Si Woo 160/1 DraftKings $2
M. Wallace 200/1 PointsBet $2
Wiesberger 300/1 PointsBet $1
B. Steele 300/1 DraftKings $1
W. Clark 450/1 DraftKings $1