Waste Management Phoenix Open 2021 Betting Card
Betting the Waste Management
It's time for the Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale as the biggest shit show on the PGA TOUR gets a year off with only 5K fans present. Covid really killin the vibe for the bros on #16 in 2021...
TPC Scottsdale is a cupcake, typical TPC layout built for the longball with bunker positioning and very little rough. Sure there have been a couple of shorter hitters win here (Webb last year), but if you peruse the top 10 for the last 5 years, you'll find a ton of long ball hitters. The large, primarily bermuda, greens run at slightly faster speeds than usual. Basically, this is about hitting bombs, hitting a ton of GIRs (preferably closer than most), and make putts. Pretty straight forward...
As of Tuesday afternoon, the weather this week in Scottsdale looks absolutely perfect for scoring with zero rain, zero wind, and temps in the 60-70s. The winning score here over the last few years has been between -15 to -18. I could easily see this birdie fest getting up to possibly -20.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Waste Management 2021 Picks
Alright, well after Adam Scott completely pulled a "putt like shaky Pat at a member guest sans Bloody Mary" on Saturday and Sunday, our hopes of back to back winners was dashed. We're now down 3 units since September. But every week of 2021, we've had an outright in the final 2 groups on Sunday and that means the process is going better than ok!
***ADDED WEDNESDAY*** - No additions (I'd have half the field) and no subtractions from yesterday. I just have a hunch that we're going to have some LONG SHOT's contend here, despite recent winners. Don't forget Brooks Koepka and Kyle Stanley won their first PGA TOUR event here and nobody thought they were worth a damn then. I just want plenty of options come Sunday. By the way...if you fancy yourself a gamble on the European Tour event in Saudi Arabia, I really like Rob MacIntyre at 35/1 and Adri Arnaus at 70/1. Our boy Ash Morrisson has his write up HERE, but those are 2 names I like.
Sungjae back on bermuda at a track where he's gained 14 strokes total in 2 tries...I think I'll have some at 34/1.
Will Zalatoris is the real deal. The win is coming for one of the best young iron players in golf. He's coming off a T7 last week in his first event of 2021. Bombs away. Get him now at 50 as his numbers will be in the Wolff, Hovland, Morikawa territory soon.
Sam Burns could've won the Farmers if not for a total bed shitting session on Sunday. He hits it a mile, loves putting on bermuda, and has been in the last few groups on Sunday a few times now on his way to learning how to win. I don't care about the 2 missed cuts here. He's become a better player over the last 12 months.
Brendan Steele loves this place. Prior to his 2 missed cuts here the last 2 years...he has 4 top 6 finishes and 6 top 25 finishes. He's a bomber that can win in a birdie fest, and he's coming off a strong showing so far in 2021 after a T21 at the AMEX in addition to a near win T4 at the Sony.
Dylan Frittelli is a PGA TOUR winner that's gained a ton of distance since the summer. He putts best on bermuda. He shook the rust off last week at the Farmers with a T53 finish where he gained 3.1 strokes T2G.
Gawd I love Sepp Straka tall, thick, Austrian ass! The University of Georgia has proven to produce winners! Sepp is the next one out of UGA. He hits it a ton, feasts on Par 5 and probably biscuits, and he's a solid putter.
Aaron Wise is shockingly long in this field at 175/1 and I just can't ignore it on a course that rewards his length and affinity for West Coast (ish) events. He putts best on bermuda. He shook the rust off at the AMEX with a MC following his near win T2 at the OHL.
Not sure if you've noticed a theme yet...but I like bombers that can crush these par 5s and hit a ton of GIRs with very little rough off the fairways. Enter Clark, NeSmith, Higgs and Holmes. Clark shot a -10 on Thursday here last year. Higgs finished T25 here in his debut in 2020. NeSmith's hits it a ton, gains strokes on bermuda, and gained nearly 7 shots with his irons at Torrey last week! Do you remember when JB Holmes won on the PGA TOUR at Riviera about 50 weeks ago...Bome! He loves this place! In his 11 attempts here, he's got 2 MCs, 2 top 6s, and 5 top 30s. 400/1 is just dumb.
Sungjae Im 34/1 DK Sportsbook $8
Willy Zalatoris 50/1 DK Sportsbook $7
Max Homa 80/1 PointsBet $5
Sam Burns 85/1 DK Sportsbook $4
Brendan Steele 125/1 DK Sportsbook $4
Dylan Frittelli 175/1 DK Sportsbook $3
Sepp Straka 175/1 DK Sportsbook $4
Aaron Wise 175/1 DK Sportsbook $3
Wyndham Clark 200/1 PointsBet $3
Matt NeSmith 300/1 DK Sportsbook $3
Harry Higgs 400/1 PointsBet $3
JB Holmes 400/1 PointsBet $3