The Masters 2020 Betting Card
Betting The Masters
It's Masters week! Augusta National Golf Club is literally 4 miles from my ass cheeks as I sit and write my thoughts. Augusta is a balmy 80 degrees at the moment with a slight breeze and my middle is in route to full erect as I think of the opportunity before us in making some cash off the best golf tournament in the world. Sure...this is a weird Masters and a weird week...but it beats the dick out of The Sanderson Farms or the Zozo.
Before you do anything else in terms of research for gambling this week, you need to listen to our interview with Charles Howell III. You can find it at the beginning of both podcasts we dropped or on our YouTube channel. Charles gave some incredible insight on how ANGC is likely to play this week.
As of Monday late afternoon, the weather here is shaping up to play a factor. Augusta is notorious for weather changing on a dime, so be sure and double check everything as late Wednesday as you can. For now, we're getting a fair amount of rain but the temps will remain up for November. Charles already discussed how the fairways would play soft even without the rain, but the National should be able to suck some moisture out with the SubAir system.
We're now down to 92 golfers in the field as Garcia and Niemann both tested positive for the Rona, and the Augusta National announced this morning that the cut line rule regarding 10 shots behind the leader has been dropped. So, top 50 and ties play the weekend and that's all she wrote.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Masters 2020 Picks
We had some triple digit outrights very live on the back 9 Sunday at Houston as Sam Burns and Sepp Straka each held the lead at some point, but Ortiz held on and we move on. I'm not going to cover all the line movement and numbers you likely missed out on here. We can't live in the past people. It's time to move on. I've got a ton of names on my card already as I've been betting the Masters futures market since December of 2019.
However, I'm just going to attack this write up as if I didn't have a single bet on the bet slip as of right now and only had $50 to blow. I'm officially at break even status since the season restarted back in early September. I'm strictly putting long outrights and first round leaders on this card, and Pat's Not That Anybody Really Cares Betting Card (live on Twitter each week) is up like 50 units. #Bome
***ADDED WEDNESDAY - Not much changing for me other than adding Cantlay and removing the 2 first timers. I still like Kokrak and Scheffler overall, but keeping to the $50 budget just doesn't allow for them after adding Cantlay. Cantlay's press conference yesterday stuck with me. He's extremely confident and when asked about the part of his game he feels the best about at the moment, he said it was his distance control with his irons and wedges. I absolutely love that for the guy that had the lead late on Sunday before stepping up to the 16th tee. He seems to be somewhat overlooked in the betting markets this week, but he belongs in the conversation as a premier ball striker.
Tony Finau exemplifies trends converging at Augusta. Form, course record and course fit all hit at this Masters without Patrons and additional pressure that comes with roars on a Sunday at Augusta. Tony hasn't closed the door like we all thought he would, but do we really think he won't at some point. He's got too much talent not to. He finished T10 his first time around Augusta and followed that with a T5 last year. He's one of the longest players in the field, and a good man...a gentlemen...if you will, winning the Masters when all the doubters are getting louder with every passing tournament just seems fitting.
Sweet swingin Louie should already have a green jacket, but Bubba denied him from deep in the shit on number 10 a few years ago. Louie would be one of the older winners in recent history outside of Tiger last year, but he still hits it so pure and far. His form has been steady since the restart and his knowledge of Augusta National is so vast. I like the numbers for some of the sly veterans that can still strike their ball with these young guys.
Speaking of young guys, Scottie Scheffler makes his Masters debut this week after a handful of strong showings since the restart. He nearly won the PGA and he's shown real chops on some tough courses this season. His form seems a little unpredictable at times, but the talent is there. I trust he arrives this week fully prepared and swinging it great. If I'm going to bet a first timer, it's going to be this year without Patrons and it's going to be at a long number.
Casey and Rose make up my two "sly veterans" at 80/1 that tickle my fancy given their strong ball striking and resume at Augusta. Rose has two runner up finishes in the last 5 years at Augusta and Casey nearly won the PGA Championship. If Sergio can win his first major as an old fart at Augusta, then so can Paul Casey.
Jason Kokrak is the last first timer I'm willing to gamble on given his length and confidence coming off his first PGA Tour victory a few weeks back in Vegas. Kokrak isn't like a lot of the other first timers. He's older, wiser, more grizzled. He's got major championship experience. He just doesn't have Masters experience. Like our buddy Charles said, if there was ever a year where first timers could win again, it would be one without Patrons.
Corey Conners arrives in Augusta for his third Masters and improving last year from his missed cut the first time around. He also arrives back to his ball striking ways. We've had many players and caddies tell us in the last year that Conners hits it about as pure as any player on the PGA Tour. The question is always his putter. I'm thinking he's worth a long shot look given how good he hits it and that the bentgrass greens should help him being so damn pure. I bet Danny Willett to win the Masters back in November of 2015 just 6 months before he got hot one week in April (and Spieth shit the bed)...and he was 150/1.
I've been betting Si Woo Kim a lot since the restart and he nearly cashed at the Wyndham. He's been hitting the ball extremely well. He's quite long off the tee and he putts best on bentgrass surfaces. He's also coming off back to back top 25's his last two cracks at Augusta National. I'm riding the big number for a guy that won The Players Championship (a much stronger field than this) arriving in solid form with trending course history on his side.
Finally, how could we not throw a little stew on Charles Howell at 250/1! That's a huge number in a field where really only about 50 or 60 guys could really win this thing. Charles is plenty long still and makes his 12th official appearance in the Masters. Plus, he gets a little relief given Patrons aren't here and he's the hometown boy. I look to recent winners like Sergio and Danny Willett and I truly believe Charles could close the door if he had a chance. 250/1 is just too long.
Cantlay at 28/1 on PointsBet $10
Finau at 33/1 on DK Sportsbook $10
Oosthuizen at 60/1 on DK Sportsbook $7
Scheffler at 66/1 on PointsBet
Casey at 80/1 on DK Sportsbook $7
Rose at 80/1 on DK Sportsbook $6
Kokrak at 100/1 on PointsBet
Conners at 150/1 on PointsBet $4
Si Woo Kim at 200/1 on DK Sportsbook $3
Howell III at 250/1 on PointsBet $3
First Round Leader
None for me this week