Sony Open 2021 Betting Card
Betting The Sony Open
The PGA TOUR finishes the Hawaii swing at Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. The Sony features 144 players with T65 and ties making the weekend. Past champs include Cam Smith (last year), Kuchar, Kizzire, JT, Gomez, Henley and even Ryan Palmer back in 2010. It's a plethora of skill sets with past champs and success here can come in a variety of ways.
Hitting fairways at Waialae tends to be more difficult than a typical PGA TOUR event, but from there it's all about hitting it close onto these smaller, grainy, bermuda greens. Of the last 5 winners, the outright pre tournament winner has been at 58/1 on average. Long shots can be in play at the Sony. Make sure and reference this week's 10 Key Stats & Podcast Recap articles for a further breakdown of the course and key stats.
As of Tuesday afternoon, conditions at Waialae look to be optimal for scoring and I don't see the winning score being less than -20. Wind doesn't look to top 12-15mph hardly at all for the week, and the threat of rain is minimal across all four days. This is shaping up to look a lot different than last year when Cam Smith battled in extremely windy conditions. This is a birdie and eagle fest where guys will need to stay aggressive. As with any low scoring affair...it brings more players into the fold and opens the door for a long shot to breakthrough.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Sony Open 2021 Picks
Welp...my favorite bet all week was Niemann at the Sentry and if not for his damn picnic between regulation and a playoff, we likely would've nailed that one at 40/1 here on the card. Thanks Jaoco! Guess he's not a reader of the article...We're continuing to track our Big Balls units for the PGA TOUR 2020-2021 season that started back in September.
I'm currently down 15 units strictly betting long shot outrights and first round leaders. Be sure and check back Wednesday afternoon for the final card. I usually eliminate some plays, add some others and sometimes sprinkle in some first round leader bets if I see an edge. Ok...let's let em hang!
***ADDED WEDNESDAY*** - No adds this week. I trimmed out Piercy due to budget. I like Piercy as a pivot in DFS, but I'll sacrifice him here. I'd prefer to have Cink who played last week and Straka in the scoring fest. I came close to adding a couple of first round leaders, but held off. There appears to be a very slight wind advantage on Thursday morning. The afternoon wave may see slightly lower wind gusts than the morning wave. I had Straka and Cink pegged as potential 100/1 first round leaders going off in the afternoon, but the advantage is very minimal so I'm not pulling the trigger.
My early looks have 5 guys that played Kapalua last week for the Sentry and I don't care too much how they played at the Sentry. Kiz, Palmer, Munoz, Todd and Cink all shook the rust off, got familiar with the elevation, bermuda grass and Hawaii in general last week as they prepare for the Sony. Obviously, Palmer played the best and had a chance to win late on Sunday before a couple costly bogeys.
I'm also not betting any outrights that haven't played Waialae before. Having some semblance of experience here has shown to matter as 14 of the last 15 winners have played here prior.
Kevin Kisner loves playing Waialae and especially after he's had a chance to play Kapalua. The greens are very similar to what he grew up on and he's got to take advantage of courses where length isn't required. 2010's Sony Open champion, Ryan Palmer arrives coming off a 4th place finish last week, and his tournament prior to that, and a 4th here last year. I'm riding the hot form and converging trends at 33/1.
Sebastian Munoz had a rough start in round 1 at Kapalua, but pulled out a T17 in his first attempt at the Sentry. The PGA TOUR winner is coming off three top 10s since August and riding some fantastic iron play. Historically, he's about 4 times better putting on bermuda than any other surface. His partner at 50/1, Brendon Todd, had a quietly decent performance last week at a "bombers course". He finished T13 thanks to his flatstick and scrambling. Waialae is much better suited for him as he doesn't have to hit it as long, and finding fairways comes at a premium.
Keegan Bradley and Russell Knox are the hold your nose and hit the button bets of the week at 80/1. Both showing some top level (for this field) ball striking numbers in the fall, whilst staying on brand and shitting the bed with the putter. They arrive having rattled off some decent finishes at the end of 2020 and neither having a bad record here over the years. Keegan's record at Waialae has been trending nicely in his last 3 attempts to a T12 in 2020.
Scott Piercy at a triple digit number, on a course that requires precision with the irons over distance with the driver, will always appeal to me given he's won on the PGA Tour multiple times. He has real win equity...even if he's an asshole.
Sepp Straka and Stewart (Stiffler's Mom) Cink are the bombers on the card that I can't wait to splurge my unit all over! They're bombers that can dial it back and score when they're on. Cink is probably having a Sex on the Beach whilst having actual sex in the evenings as he relaxes from the Sentry, but he's in such a good mental spot right now after his victory in the fall. Sepp is my guy this year that I believe can break out and shock some people with a win. The way Georgia Bulldogs win on the PGA TOUR means the product is solid, and Sepp is a #DGD for sure. He's exceptional with his irons and can feast on the two par 5's out here.
Finally, Peter Malnati...2021 is off to a weird start writing about this guy, but damnit if he doesn't hit his irons pretty ok and putt and chip on bermuda like his last name is bermuda! "Peter Bermuda..." He was in the hunt in back to back events in October with a T3 & T5 at the Sanderson and Shriners. He had his best finish ever at the Sony last year with a T12. At 150/1...I think we could do worse.
Best Odds for Every Play on PointsBet
Kisner at 30/1 $10
Palmer at 33/1 $10
Munoz at 50/1 $7
Todd at 50/1 $6
Bradley at 80/1 $4
Knox at 80/1 $4
Straka at 125/1 $3
Cink at 125/1 $4
Malnati at 150/1 $2
Piercy at 100/1