Betting Long Shots for The Masters 2021
The Betting Approach for The Masters 2021
The greatest sporting event in the world is upon as in our backyard of Augusta, GA as The Masters takes center stage for the first time since Tiger won 2 years ago. I've listened to hours worth of press conferences, I've read all the press transcripts that aren't published on Masters.com, and there are 2 things that come out of EVERY interview.
First, the golf course is "firm and fast." Veterans have compared the current conditions to 2007 when Zach Johnson won. It's unanimous that it's playing nothing like it did in November. Countless players remarked that the speed of the golf course will impact so much, but especially around the green. Most of the players have cited things like patience, years of experience and more patience when asked what it will take to dawn the green jacket this week. For the sake of the rest of this article, we'll refer to those type of players as, "grindy."
Oh yea, the second thing you hear in every interview is the guys answering the dipshit questions from Christine Brennan about Georgia and how a new voting law would impact their thoughts and preparation at Augusta National. I won't be adding these answers into my "model" for the betting card.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Augusta National will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
I'm seeing the books put the winning score around -12.5. If you can get that number, I would POUND the under. I don't see how ANGC let's this winning score better than -10. The worst kept secret around town is that the -20 score in November did NOT sit well with members. That alone is enough reason for members to set up this course as tough as they want, but when you add in some unusually fresh wind gusts just about all 4 days with very little rain...it's a recipe for a winning score no better than -5 in my opinion.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for The Masters 2021
My committment to this card is to only give you outright numbers at 25/1 or longer. That's pretty tough for The Masters as the best in the world have a tremendous track record. If you total the implied odds to win from the guys shorter than 25/1 across most books, you get those guys winning around 42-46% of the time. Yikes! But let's be honest...you don't need some "tout" to tell you to bet Justin Thomas or Jon Rahm. Just pick the guys you like at the best numbers and pull the trigger.
If I were going to give you my favorite outright bets shorter than 25/1, I'd go Cantlay at 22/1, Rory at 18/1 and Rahm at 12/1. Ok, that's enough of that...I can feel my balls shrinking.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 7 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 22 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
I'm not sure how any bettor with a brain could leave off the "grindy" Patrick Reed given the likelihood of course conditions and his record. Reed's short game prowess, knowledge of Augusta National, and ability to win any given week makes this an auto bet for me. Oh and don't forget his putting and a win in January.
I'm very much a fan of veterans this week (see opening paragraphs about experience). And damn papa...give me a "Grindy Vet" and I'll get a little hard in the middle! Insert Paul Casey and most of the names on my card. Paul's game is in as good of form as ever, he's playing confidently and he's knocked on the door in recent majors. His record at Augusta is tremendous. If Sergio can finally break the seal in 2017, then so can Mr. Casey.
I realize Webber hasn't been as sharp as we've been used to seeing, but you gotta believe he's up for this week and fully prepared. He's played so well at Augusta recently, and not even in optimal Webb conditions. However, this week appears to be setting up perfect for Webb in terms of conditions. He's the nicest guy in professional golf, but he's a killer late on a Sunday when he's got a chance. Webb knows how to win.
I'm a firm believer in Matt Fitzpatrick after years of being against him. I think it's that he's added some distance (I don't get along with short knockers), and he's been playing so damn well. He's never missed a cut at Augusta, and while his finishes haven't been great, I do feel like his game is in a different state right now.
I saw Jason Day (or Night) on Saturday morning as I was leaving the ANWA final round. It was good to see him out there early, swinging freely, laughing it up...He's always an injury concern, but it's good to see him healthy and playing well. He knows Augusta and his combo of driving and putting can be deadly here.
Louis Oosthuizen...enter another Sergio comparison. Can he get it done this late in his career? If there's a major championship where an old guy that's never won one can get it done...it's at Augusta. I pray his back holds up, and if it does, Louis's still playing some great golf. He's got plenty of pop in the bat still and knows this golf course.
Marc Leishman came to Augusta in November in arguably the worst incoming form of his career and managed to finish T13. #Experience. He's played a little better of late coming into this year, and now the firm and fast conditions play into his hand. His presser this week indicated his excitement to see the course playing like this, and he's feeling great about his game.
Anytime Si Woo shows up to a major championship in the triple digit range to win, I'll likely be betting. Si Woo can win big events (The Players Championship), and when he gives 2 shits, he's deadly. He's one of the best scramblers in professional golf, he's 11th in SG: APP over the last 24 rounds, 16th in P5 Scoring over the last 24 rounds, and he's made 3 of 4 cuts at Augusta National with 2 Top 25s.
Finally, Francesco Molinari rounds out the card as a "Grindy Vet" that nearly won in 2019 if not for some water balls on number 12. He missed the cut in November, but the course was not well suited him. He loves Augusta, the short game is tremendous and he's added a touch of distance lately without sacrificing accuracy. In a field where he's 1 of 40 guys with a 0.5% or greater chance of winning based on the sportsbook odds...200/1 is just too long for the guy that should've won in 2019.
P. Reed 35/1 PointsBet $10
P. Casey 40/1 PointsBet $9
W. Simpson 45/1 DraftKings $8
M. Fitzpatrick 50/1 PointsBet $6
J. Day 60/1 PointsBet $5
L. Oosthuizen 80/1 PointsBet $4
M. Leishman 150/1 PointsBet $3
Si Woo 150/1 PointsBet $3
F. Molinari 200/1 PointsBet $2