Betting Outrights for The RBC Heritage 2022
The Betting Approach for The RBC Heritage 2022
The favorite to win The Masters won and that sucks balls for the BBBC. I love Scottie though. But here we are searching for a juicy outright bomb to win the RBC Heritage as the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town. I've played this course a couple of times (including from the tips), and I can attest to the angles, shot making, and "Dye-abolical" trouble you can find yourself in when out of place.
The books are projecting the winning score at around -14.5. The last few tournaments we've seen in April for this event have been -19, -12, -12, & -13. Cink did win by 4 strokes at -19 so the 14.5 is probably pretty spot on. Harbour Town should play firm and fast this week with very little rain and consistent winds in the forecast. It does appear the wind will play a minor factor this year. It's not a typhoon, but it's not negligible.
More Intel on Harbour Town Golf Links
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Harbour Town will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The RBC Heritage 2022
Well crap. I'm now down into negative units for the PGA TOUR season as we approach the outright market for the RBC Heritage. We're at -3 units after losing all we won off of Hudson Swafford and Luke List hits. I'm starting to get real antsy. I've done a ton of research this week...like more than average...and this could be a bad thing.
I'm still weighing iron play so much more than I even normally do. I'm looking at SG: APP, Opps Gained and long term iron play at 175-200 yards more than anything. I'm also taking a look at SG:ATG as even the best iron players will miss these small greens. From a putting standpoint, I'm still weighing very recent SG: P in addition to SG: P on bermuda surfaces.
I care about their track record around Harbour Town as I do think Pete Dye designs in general take a few loops around to truly understand how to get around. I'm not taking 2020 into account all that much though given it was played in June as the 2nd event back from the COVID break.
As you can see, I'm continuing to operate in full on assault of my nuts to the face of the sportsbooks out there as I've listed my shortest play at 40/1 with Russell Henley. I'm banking on this mid range to pull through hard, despite the very strong top end of this field. If it beats me...then so be it. I'd be inclined to bet Conners, Lowry, or Fitzpatrick if I could get them at the 25/1 or longer number, but it's just not in the cards at this point.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!