Farmers Insurance Open 2021 Betting Card
Betting the Farmers Insurance Open
The PGA TOUR arrives at lovely Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open as many of the world's best take the stage to prep for this summer's US Open at Torrey South. The weather is starting to take shape and the South course should play rather long if we get the rain we're projected to get. It's already the longest course on the PGA TOUR and then you add the soft conditions...bombs away. The cooler temps and high of 63 the entire week will also favor the bombers. The books have the winning score total at around -14.5 right now and I do believe -12 to -15 will win this thing.
The list of recent winners here is comprised of bombers, above average putters, non Americans, grinders and Aussies. Unlike last week, we're likely to see the cream rise to the top here and the guys on the shorter end of the betting markets near the top of the leaderboard. If you're looking for a deep dive or discussion on tee time advantages and weather edge, then you should join the NUT HUT. We've got a ton of sharp takes, sharp data, and good ol' fashioned debate going on in regards to the weather wave topic.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Farmers Insurance 2021 Picks
Bome! We hit Si Woo Kim last week at 66/1 to put us in the positive for the season at +2 units. Should be up 42 units, but facking Niemann just had to picnic with his smokin hott girlfriend in Hawaii whilst waiting on a playoff...I'm still pissed at him for that.
Ok, so I chose to wait until Wednesday to throw out any bets here due to the weather taking shape and the PGA TOUR taking their precious time releasing tee times. I mentioned this on the pod, and some agreed...and some disagreed, but you could consider betting the guys playing the North course on Thursday pre tournament...and betting the Thursday South guys after round 1 based on where they stand to see if their numbers get longer before heading to the easier track on Friday. Just a thought. Don't have to, but it's a viable strategy I believe.
So I'm choosing to save $16 of the allotted $50 to use after round 1. Everyone with a dollar amount next to it, with the exception of JB Holmes, tees off on the easier North course for round 1. In the event they go out and shoot a good number on day 1, their # is likely to get shorter than it is right now. So I'm firing. Holmes is my lone exception because that number is already stupid long for a bomber that putts well on POA and loves the West coast events. He crushes it at Torrey. He's got 3 top 6 finishes in his last 6 attempts.
The rest of the guys with asterisks are names I'm kind of drawn to now, but will choose to wait and see what they do on day 1 playing the more difficult South course. That could backfire if they shoot under par, but I'll take the risk and save some units. If they go out and shoot day 1 average on the South, and their number gets longer...I may fire and take the gamble they ball out on day 2 at the North course.
Holmes and Day are the only 2 names we haven't seen play an event this year. I gave you my logic for Holmes. In terms of Day, he's a 2x winner long hitting, putting machine, Aussie. Those do well at Torrey. It's a juicy number all things considered.
I love the value on Woodland considering how well he played last coming off an injury. He discussed how good he felt after and his skillset should suit Torrey just fine. I'm a sucker for Scott at 50/1 or greater where precise iron play into small greens can pay off. I think the smaller greens help his shitty putter situation. I love Cam Davis. If there was a Cam Davis scent, I would buy it like Michael Jordan cologne that came out when I was in middle school and smelled like a locker room. I love that he bombs it, he's Australian and is familiar with kikuya grass, and he was in the mix for a win last weekend on his way to a solo 3rd.
Kokrak checks all the boxes from tee to green here and comes off his first PGA TOUR win against a strong field in the fall. Noren is a gut play that flashed some form last week and is always a look when scrambling, wind and grinder like conditions are at play. List is my Cali loving, long dong hitting guy that I will bet til he wins or loses his card.
PointsBet best odds on all
Wolff at 33/1***
Scott 50/1 $6
Woodland 60/1 $7
Davis 70/1 $5
Kokrak 80/1 $5
Noren 125/1 $5
List 150/1 $3
Holmes 200/1 $3