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Betting Long Shots for The ZOZO Championship 2021

The Betting Approach for The ZOZO Championship 2021

Another sub 25/1 winner last week means another loss for the card. We're off to a decent start though as we've had a runner up, a T3, and 2 more in the top 5 on the card in the last 4 events. We've been close. Let's keep it moving as the PGA TOUR heads to Tokyo for the ZOZO Championship.

Yet again, it's a 78 man, no cut event where we last saw Tiger Woods take it down in 2019. The field is hot fecal matter with travel and COVID disincentivizing many players from coming over.

The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -18.5. Tiger won at -19, but only 9 players finished at -10 or better, and that was with a MUCH stronger field. I think the winning score falls under that projection and we see Accordia play a little tougher given the speed and undulation of these greens. Plus, the scrambling on this zoysia grass won't be easy.

More Intel on Accordia Golf Narashino CC

If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Accordia Golf Narashino will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.

If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.

This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!

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Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).

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Long Shot Outright Bets for The ZOZO Championship 2021

I considered putting Rickie or Mav or Keegan on here, but it meant less players on the card. I just think in terms of betting the outrights this week, if you fade the very top with Kawa, X, Deki, Willy Z...you may as well fade the next tier as well. The numbers from 25/1 to 50/1 are filled with players that have played a lot of golf already this season and are traveling from Vegas.

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It made names like EVR, CT Pan, Schenk, List and Norlander a little more appealing to me. This may be one of the ugliest betting cards I've ever put out. This could be a great week to consider live betting if one of the big names up top gets off to a slow start after round 1 or 2. I'll be watching for Willy Z and Hideki specifically. If those 2 just don't see any putts drop early, but hit it well and their odds slip to the 30/1 range or longer, then I'm pouncing.

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Outright Winner

E. Van Rooyan 40/1 PointsBet $9

CT Pan 45/1 DraftKings $9

KH Lee 50/1 PointsBet $8

Schenk 60/1 PointsBet $6

List 60/1 DraftKings $6

Norlander 65/1 DraftKings $6

Hoge 100/1 DraftKings $3

Streb 100/1 DraftKings $3

First Round Leader