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valero texas open 2022

Valero texas open 2022 DraftKings Preview

Players gear up for one last shot at a Masters tee time

We are ONE week away from The Masters and a new world #1 has been crowned. Scottie Scheffler scorched the field at the Match Play to win his third event in six weeks and claim the top spot in the world rankings. Masters prep has begun and the final tuneup will send any remaining hopefuls to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend. 

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week. 

The WGC Match Play produced five days of some entertaining drama with 49-year old Richard Bland taking his group, Brooks Koepka taking down the former world #1, and Kevin Kisner making another final. Us Canadians were also treated to Corey Conners making a deep run, eventually beating Dustin Johnson in the consolation match to take third. While all of this was going on, another battle was waging in the Caribbean. Chad Ramey became the sixth player to earn their first PGA Tour victory in 2022 winning the Corales Puntacana Championship.

All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!

The Field and Tournament Details for the valero texas open

The top 50 OWGR cutoff for The Masters is locked. The final spot at Augusta National will be awarded to the would-be champ of the Valero Texas Open (VTO) provided they are not already qualified. Fortunately, for golf fans, some pretty top names have decided to try and find some form before next week.

This is the 100th anniversary of the Texas Open with the last 13 being played at TPC San Antonio. Jordan Spieth, who is the reigning VTO champion, is in the field, as is Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, the current Masters champion, Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, Abraham Ancer, Rickie Fowler, and the 2019 VTO champ, Corey Conners. Past winners also include Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Steven Bowditch (2014), Martin Laird (2013), Ben Curtis (2012), Brendan Steele (2011), and Adam Scott (2010).

The field will also be joined by some late qualifiers. Rasmus Hojgaard, Ben Martin, and Cameron Percy all played their way in via top 10s in Punta Cana. There are four spots available for Monday qualifiers. Conners was the last player to qualify via a Monday Q and went on to win this very event in 2019. Sponsor Exemptions include Richard Bland, Michael Gligic, Dawie van der Walt, Beau Hossler, University of Oklahoma's Logan McAllister, and Texas Tech’s Ludvig Aberg.

This event has bounced around the schedule over the last dozen years. The last two stops were before The Masters, following three years post Masters. A couple more back and forth but has been played in April since 2011. The average winning score is 275 (-13) over the last 10 years with Conners' -20 the best and Bowditch/Steele at -8, the worst.

valero texas open Course Breakdown

  • Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
  • Location: San Antonio, TX USA
  • Yardage: 7,438
  • Par: 72
  • Architect: Greg Norman (2010)
  • Grass: Champion bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis
  • Comp Courses: TPC Summerlin, Riviera CC, PGA National, TPC Craig Ranch, Quail Hollow, Bay Hill

Though many players use this week to prep for The Masters, TPC San Antonio is not a generous course to guys trying to find form. The weather isn't very generous either. Wind can always be a problem. The course was designed by Greg Norman with help from Sergio Garcia. Strategically, the course is set up to play downhill into the wind and uphill downwind. The scorecard says almost 7,500 but rarely plays at max distance.

It hasn't quite warmed up fully locally so the Bermudagrass surfaces have been overseeded. Poa Trivialis on the greens, which we have seen for the last few weeks, and ryegrass elsewhere. TPC San Antonio doesn't rank high in terms of course history relevance but Strokes Gained: Texas is a narrative that will be talked up and worth a look. In fact, the course doesn't rate too high or low in most categories.

Diving into FNGC's Past Course Conditions and Course Breakdown tools we can see that TPC San Antonio has average scoring, medium-firm greens, and relatively slow greens. Driving accuracy and greens in regulation % are below average but driving distance is above average. You can miss these fairways but go too wayward and the surrounding forests will eat you up.

Key Stats for the Valero texas open

  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Around the Green
  • Good Drives
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par 5 Scoring (550+yds)

These greens are tricky and guys that excel at putting or are at least capable of putting it together for four rounds, have an edge here. Conners at +2.2, yes, Conners, yes positive Stroke Gained: Putting, was the worst of the last six years. It never needs to be stressed but Approach is the key to good golf and with the toughness heading into the greens, dialed irons become even more important. Hoffman did all of his damage on the greens, only gaining 3.3 strokes on approach. The rest of the winners were more than double including Conners who gained over 11 strokes.

Because of the trouble with approaches and the tricky greens, there is a big emphasis on Around the Green play. Guys gotta be good at getting up and down. That's also why I added Bogey Avoidance. The elements will likely be a factor but you also don't want guys who struggle in the sand, chipping off the green (or on the green here!), or are prone to the dreaded three-putt. Good Drives will tell us who hits greens and in most cases, keeps their ball out of the shit.

For scoring stats, I'll keep it simple this week; Opps Gained and Par 5 Scoring. I want to know who's sticking it close on approach. par won't be a bad score on the majority of holes. That brings us to Par 5s. There are four of them and they aren't shorties. All over 550 and two of them over 600. Need birdies on those.

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Valero texas Open Picks & Fades

Each week we will give you some plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks make sure to check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast.

**Picks will be updated Monday night**

To Play or Not to Play Brooks Koepka

BK is not in the field this week. Let's F@$King Go, Masters cupcakes in 2023!

$9K & Above 

  • DB: Play - Chris Kirk | Fade - Jordan Speith
  • Pat: Play - Corey Conners | Fade - Rory McIlroy
  • AC: Play - Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland | Fade - Hideki Matsuyama

Conners put on an awesome show at the WGC. The form is rounding out quite nicely as he returns to the home of his lone PGA Tour win. One where he had to postpone his honeymoon due to a date with Augusta National. Conners is top five in tee to green, good drives, and 6th in bogey avoidance over the last three months. Kirk and Woody each finished T6 at last year's VTO and also finished T5 at the API a few weeks back. They both rate out top 10 in my model, excelling in ball striking, Par 5 scoring, and DK scoring.

Deki has been a WD due to a neck injury the last few weeks. His history here isn't special and the price is quite high for somebody likely getting in some reps before he defends his Masters title next week.

$8K Range

  • DB: Play - Luke List | Fade - Ryan Palmer
  • Pat: Play - Adam Hadwin | Fade - Charlie Hoffman
  • AC: Play - Adam Hadwin, Patton Kizzire | Fade - Charlie Hoffman

Not a chance I'm ignoring Hadwin here. Back to back top 10s. Top five in my model. The approach game is super strong, bogey avoidance is elite, and a T23 here in 2021. Patton hasn't put up anything too impressive lately but the stats are there. It's only a matter of time. He's #1 in my model over the last three months. Super strong approach and opps gained. He also has a solid putter and it keeps him from putting up any big numbers. T9 here in 2021.

The appeal will be there for Hoffman. His ownership will climb due to his history here. It is incredible. His recent play, however, is far, far from that. He ranks 137th in my model and really hasn't had a speck of excellence since he called out the Tour and hopped on the Saudi bandwagon.

$7K Range

  • DB: Play - Matthew NeSmith | Fade - Chad Ramey
  • Pat: Play - Rickie Fowler | Fade - Lanto Griffin
  • AC: Play - Rasmus Hojgaard, Martin Laird, Anirban Lahiri | Fade - CT Pan

Anybody who reads this regularly knows how much I love the 7ks. Fields like these are always a bit weird down here but there are some gems. This week I offer up a few that should go a bit overlooked. Rasmus played awesomely in Punta Cana in his first PGA Tour start of 2022. The kid has game and we're just starting to see the beginning. Party Marty rates out really well including #1 in good drives and 10th tee to green. He's also 3rd in total strokes gained at TPC San Antonio. Baan made a huge run at The PLAYERS and should be feeling really good heading into an event where he finished 5th last year and has the potential to book a tee time at ANGC.

It always feels dirty picking a fade in the 7ks. Especially without ownership projections. Pan has missed three straight cuts here, didn't play last year, and doesn't pop in anything I'm looking at. Except around the green. Pretty good there.

$6K Range

  • DB: Play - David Lipsky, Greyson Sigg, Doc Redman
  • Pat: Play - Adam Svensson, Kevin Chappell, Hayden Buckley
  • AC: Play - Adam Svensson, Austin Smotherman, Ben Martin

Svensson hurt me a bit last week. His MC cost me quite a bit but one bad week won't deter me. The ball striking can just be so good. These greens shouldn't kill him either and he did finish T42 here in 2019. Smotherman and Martin have some history at TPC San Antonio. Both finished in the top 10 during a Korn Ferry Tour event played at the Oaks course in 2020. Martin is coming off a runner-up finish at Corales where he led from the start till the back nine. That taste should have him wanting more. Smotherman has just been hitting it really well the last few months. T25 at the Valspar and the irons have been dialed.


OUT: None to report


Open qualifiers: 66 [-6] Aaron Baddeley (1 eagle, 5 birdies, 1 bogey); 67 [-5]Shawn Stefani (5 birdies); 68 [-4] Jake Kevorkian (6 birdies, 2 bogeys), Samuel Saunders (5 birdies, 1 bogey)

*The field is 144