US Open 2020 Betting Card
Betting the US Open
As the US Open brings the collective golf world's attention to historic Winged Foot, it's ideal for long shot loving golf bettors like myself to remember a few key facts for this major championship. I'm sure you've heard me say that I love betting on longer numbers in the game of golf handicapping given golf's high level of volatility. That paid off in 2018 when I hit 5 bets through the year longer than 100/1. I guess you could say it paid off in 2019 after betting for 30 weeks and finishing up 10 units. However, early indications at Winged Foot would not lead one to believe that anyone over 100/1 will win this week.
We've all seen the videos of how nasty and T-H-I-C-C the rough is going to be. And, we've all heard that the USGA wants the winning score to be somewhere between E and +4. Here at Tour Junkies HQ, one of our caddie friends told us after seeing the course that the greens are going to be bumpy AF. Winged Foot is setting up to play very difficult, firm, fast and demanding of every players best game and focus.
Over the last few years, the average outright winning odds for our victors have been around 40/1 and most ranked within the top 30 in the world heading into the US Open. I want players in form. I don't want players that just made equipment changes (cough cough Shane Lowry). Nor do I want players that just made caddie changes (cough cough Cam Champ). I'll take the guys with a level head and strong mental game that can stay patient when blow up holes come (cough cough NOT Bryson).
I want grinders with excellent short game around the green because they will miss greens. And of course, I want true win equity and value at the number. This is my "Big Balls" betting card...I'm not going to totally wuss out just because it's Winged Foot. Nor should you. Let's get into this!
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My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
My US Open 2020 Picks
The Big Balls Betting Card Tracker is now down 5 units after Stewart MOTHER F'ING OLD ASS Cink stole a 100/1 Harry Higgs victory from me last week at the Safeway. Nice runner up for Higgs, but I never thought I'd be so mad at Cink in my life. Good for him though...and stuff...moving on.
PointsBet far and away offering the best lines for most of my first looks in the outright department with Adam Scott being the only exception. Abe, Kiz and Billy Ho are either 100/1 or 90/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook and much tastier with PointsBet for now. I feel really good about all of these numbers as most are longer than our "unnamed, very accurate sportsbook" that we don't like betting at because they're too sharp.
This is a who's who of premium ball strikers that tend to find fairways and scramble. Only 3 major champions in this group, but plenty of major champion experience and contenders with really Ancer having the least amount major championship reps.
I think Oosthuizen is far and away the best VALUE on the board at 100/1 with his win equity and record at US Opens. Oh yea...and he's playing lights out right now. The sweet spot outside of Louis that I feel the best about would be Scott, Reed and Fleetwood. I'm likely locking in those numbers now before they potentially get shorter come Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE - The long shots of Kiz, Billy and Abe didn't make my cut on the final card as I'm trying to be somewhat responsible and stay in the middle range. English and Louie ended up being easily the best values on the board as PointsBet was very generous compared to DK on their numbers. The FRL bets are just a couple of morning ball strikers at big numbers that I wouldn't mind splitting due to dead heat rules. I think a tie at the top for FRL is extremely likely on a day where nobody is likely to run out and shoot -8 like most weeks on the PGA Tour. It's very likely the low score on Thursday is a handful of guys hanging out around -1 or E. I do give a slight edge to the AM guys on Thursday as they'll put on slightly slower greens. I read that the stimp on these puppies grows at an alarming pace from morning to afternoon.
Joel and Corey both hit plenty of fairways. Neither are short and maybe even slightly above average in terms of distance on the PGA Tour. Joel's scrambling is much improved. Corey's concern has always been the putter, but he does best on poa. Plus, I think poa can bring the field closer to level ground in terms of putting due to the volatility of the grass and the inevitable weird bounce. Conners is statistically in the top 10 for GIR and SG: Approach both in the short term and over the last 12 months.
Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 on PointsBet $8
Patrick Reed 40/1 on PointsBet $10
Tyrell Hatton 50/1 on PointsBet $7
Adam Scott 55/1 on DK Sportsbook $8
Harris English 90/1 on PointsBet $5
Louis Oosthuizen 100/1 on PointsBet $4
Kevin Kisner 125/1 on PointsBet
Billy Horschel 125/1 on PointsBet
Abe Ancer 150/1 on PointsBet
First Round Leader
Joel Dahmen 125/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Corey Conners 100/1 on PointsBet $3