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Betting Long Shots for The Open Championship 2021

The Betting Approach for The Open Championship 2021

Hell yea! The Big Ball's Betting Card is now in the positive after hitting the monstrous Cam Davis hit 2 weeks ago! It feels great when you're on a player early in their career and you finally hit big when they convert. Hope you all took advantage!

If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Royal St. George's will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.

If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this're missing out on a TON of information from our friends on the grounds and more. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut as sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.

The sportsbooks have the winning score projected around -8.5. is The Open Championship and the wind looks pretty gnarly all week with the exception of Sunday. We know the weather can also change a ton. We've only seen the winning score better than -5 once here in over a dozen attempts at Royal St. George's. I think it's going to fall in that -4 to -8 range, personally.

This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!

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Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).


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Long Shot Outright Bets for The Open Championship 2021

The Open Championship brings a ton of variance. Variance means that a lot of the chalk can bust and long shots can win. Shane Lowry won in 2019 at 70/1. Prior to that, we saw some shorter numbers. However, prior to that run...we saw three triple digit winners at The Open since 2010. All that to say, I'm really all about living in the mid range to long shots this week.

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Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 10 outright winners all over 25/1 and 2 first round leaders at 125/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article is now up 6 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.

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I still love Patrick Cantlay. I believe his 1st Major Championship is immiment and The Open Championship in windy conditions is a perfect spot for the ball striker. The form is there. The previous T12 at the 2018 Open checks that trend box. He should get off to a good start on Thursday as he tees off in the early afternoon wave getting the lightest projected winds as of Wednesday afternoon.

Similar to the tee time Cantlay will have on Thursday, sits Matthew Fitzpatrick. The playoff loss just last week at the Scottish Open is just further solidifying the exceptional year he's already had. He's added distance off the tee to go along with his precision, and he's got proven wind chops. We also heard from the Head Pro at Royal St. George's that Matt has probably spent more time there than just about any other player in preparation. The Englishman has to feel like this is his best chance yet to win a major.

I f'ing love Scottie Scheffler now in case you didn't know. He played great at The Scottish Open last week, and his major championship record is tremendous in limited starts so far in his career. Also, I've got quite the body lumber between my legs after watching him hit THIS driver stinger about forty-leven times thus far.

I also f'ing love Harris English. Coming off his 2nd victory on the PGA TOUR season just a couple of weeks ago, Harris has to be feeling supremely confident. This is his 6th Open Championship. Despite his best finish being a T15 back in 2013, he's only missed 1 cut in 5 attempts and he's playing the best of his career at the moment. He's doing everything from well right now. Form is crucial at The Open when dealing with so many variables, and tough conditions.

Robert Macintyre has heaps (very British word) of links experience growing up in Scotland. He's been a staple studmuffin on the European Tour and he's improved when he's had chances in majors. Bobby Mac played well last week at the Scottish and finished 6th at the 2019 Open Championship. He's got real stones, and the sweet swingin lefty could very well hoist this trophy come Sunday in these blustery conditions.

I have a fair amount of triple digit options due to the variance of this event and the recent history of long shots winning at RSG (Clark at 110/1 & Curtis at 300/1). The PointsBet number on Adam Scott was too good to pass up as he's 80/1 on most books and 50/1 on DK. He mentioned in his presser that he's put a new driver in the bag a few weeks ago to deal with his recent accuracy issues. I like that.

Lucas "Ear"bert just won on the European Tour and the Aussie is a stud from the sand and in the wind. Confident...wind...linksy...sand...stud arriving in great form at 100/1...? Sure.

Stewart "Stiffler's Mom" Cink seems like a perfect fit for this place and his resurgence gives me all the more confidence for the ol dusty Open Champion from days past.

Remember when Kevin Streelman was on the first page of the leaderboard at the PGA and the US Open this year...yea. Plus, this accurate shortknocker's having one of his best seasons on the PGA TOUR. 200/1 is just too juicy.

Joel Dahmen and Aaron Rai round it out as FOMO bets. Joel is feeling good, coming off a win this season, loves playing in the wind and he's super accurate off the tee. Rai is a links specialist with links course victories on the European Tour and a tremendous short game.

Outright Winner

Cantlay 33/1 PointsBet $12

Fitzpatrick 40/1 DraftKings $8

Scheffler 50/1 DraftKings $8

English 70/1 PointsBet $5

MacIntyre 80/1 PointsBet $4

Scott 100/1 PointsBet $4

L. Herbert 100/1 PointsBet $3.5

Cink 150/1 PointsBet $2

Streelman 200/1 DraftKings $1.5

Dahmen 300/1 PointsBet $1

Rai 300/1 DraftKings $1

First Round Leader