The Power Fade: Mexico Open 2023

The Approach to fading big names in the mexico open 2023

What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts (a.k.a. AK) here with a new addition to the Tour Junkies family. I present to you "The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your GPP's."

The Mexico Open field is weak to say the very least. In this field we see players in the 8k and above range on DraftKings that we would usually never see priced this high. In field's like this, it becomes critical to pinpoint who our Power Fades will be, giving us leverage in GPP's which can lead us to green screens!

Tony Finau ($10,700)

Overall, I could argue to you that the Mexico Open is a two man race for first place this week. It is my full belief that the Mexico Open comes down to Tony Finau versus Jon Rahm. I will be taking Rahm, especially this iteration of the world's number one player. Fire up Rahmbo 100% and full fade T-25 Tony with confidence this week.

Why The Fade Works:

Jon Rahm has a price tag of $12,000 on DraftKings and frankly this a bargain. With Tony Finau coming it at $10,700, a choice needs to be made on who to start your DraftKings lineups with. Now you could play both in a lineup, but having an average remaining salary of $6,825 for your next four players is a dangerous proposition.

As I delve into the stats for this week, Tony Finau will pop as a good DraftKings play on your optimizers. Look folks, we all love Tony Finau. Tony is an upstanding citizen, easy to root for, and has a great inspiring story. Since I have to nitpick at some point with the best of the best in this field, in the case of Tony Finau, it isn't the stats that will be the damning case against him. This comes down to current form.

It is important to realize that over his last two events (RBC Heritage, The Masters), Tony has finished T31 and T26 respectively. Furthermore, he has scored 72.5 and 62.5 DraftKings points in this timeframe.

Clearly Finau isn't firing on all cylinders, and is getting credit (rightfully so) as the second best player in the field. I just cannot pay $10,700 for a guy who hasn't had a Top 10 since the Farmer's in January.

It is definitely my belief that Finau could be a contender for the weekly chalk bomb. I would make sure to sign up for this valuable piece of intel that hits your inbox on Wednesday's. Additionally the chalk bomb is free of charge! If you haven't subscribed already you can find a sign up box in the chalk bomb section below.

Anything under 90 DraftKings points will not meet value this week. I am not saying he misses the cut, but the fade on Tony is more so a price versus expected result.

Alex Noren ($9,000)

“ It is my full belief that the Mexico Open comes down to Tony Finau versus Jon Rahm. I will be taking Rahm, especially this iteration of the world's number one player. Fire up Rahmbo 100% and full fade T-25 Tony with confidence this week."

— AK

I will be the first to say that I am a true Team Never Alex Noren member.

At $9,000 on DraftKings this week, Noren is the textbook example of a guy receiving name value credit versus actual ability.

Why The Fade Works:

As you look into the stats this week on Noren, two major flaws come to light. My first case toward a full fade is that Noren ranks 73rd in this field Strokes Gained Ball Striking. Ideally to compete this week in the Mexico Open, you will need solid ball striking numbers, and this red flag is alarming.

I am very confident that this next statistic will not get enough talk this week, which leads to another damning reason to fade Noren.

When it comes to Strokes Gained Off the Tee this week (SG OTT), Noren is BRUTAL. Alex ranks 105th in the field this week for SG OTT. Certainly I understand the fairways are wide this week on a resort course like Vidanta, but my goodness this is troubling. In any event, getting off the tee, even with fairways you could land a Boeing 747 on is still an important aspect of the game.

Henceforth, I could easily see the touts and "sharps" discounting that statistic this week. In contrast I will be leveraging this situation to make key fades such as Alex Noren.

Interestingly enough, early projections show Noren coming in low owned (sub 5%). Consequently, The game theory folks are going to see this, and tout the "low owned pivot" of the week Alex Noren. I will be taking the stance of Alex Noren at 9k this week is the biggest trap of the year. If he burns me, he burns me. I will take my chances.

That's it folks on the maiden voyage of the Power Fade! I will return to you next week for an elevated event... The Wells Fargo Championship where DB will be on site! Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's ride the Power Fade!

Meet the Author:

Allen Klutts

A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.

Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.