Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 DraftKings Preview
DB looks to go three in a row as Longshot szn moves to Pebble Beach
Golf fans were spoiled last week at Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open. We had a solid field, extra holes needed, and a LongShot SZN victory by DFS community favorite, Luke List. DB goes back-to-back on the Big Balls Betting Card! This week, the PGA Tour continues the multi-course west coast swing. We head to Pebble Beach for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.Â
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.Â
It was an unfortunate week for Will Zalatoris. Not only was he poised to pick up his first PGA Tour win, but to do at Torrey would have been extra special for the kid. Alas, a first-time winner we still did get. Luke List made a couple of clutch birdies on 16 and 18 after missing so many close ones to force a playoff when Zalatoris lipped out a tournament-winning put on the 72nd hole. Fortunately, it seemed most of the community had outright tickets on both players so joy was had all around. Especially, for those following the DB's BBBC. DB touted List at 75/1 after nailing Hudson Swafford at The AmEx at 250/1. On to Pebble!
All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!
The Field and Tournament Details for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Well, maybe lower your expectations for this week if you were looking for a high-profile event. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has a solid list of former champions but always seems to suffer in the strength of the field. It's a pro-am. It's a three-course rotation. Those ingredients combined make for some long rounds. Imagine if this event was set on just Pebble Beach and threw out the amateurs. Glorious. However, that is not the case so let's get into it.
Daniel Berger struggled over the weekend at Torrey and looked as if he would withdraw at any time (He did WD). Luckily, golf is played with caddies who can bend over and pick up your ball for you. Berger stuck it out and is currently still listed in the field to defend his title from 2021. One thing to note from last year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the event was played without the amateurs and reduced to just two courses; Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course.
Berger shot -18 to win which sits about average. The last few years have been around there with a high of -22 and a low of -11. Here's a list of the recent champions at Pebble and their scores: Nick Taylor (-19,2020); Phil Mickelson (-19,2019); Ted Potter Jr. (-17,2018); Jordan Spieth (-19,2017); Vaughn Taylor (-17,2016); Brandt Snedeker (-22,2015); Jimmy Walker (-11,2014). All but Mickelson are back to try again.
Joining them on the tee on Thursday are the likes of top-ranked, Patrick Cantlay, who is the only top 10 player in the world in the field. Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Zalatoris (*WD), Kevin Kisner, Cameron Tringale, Seamus Power, Justin Rose, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Palmer, Mito Pereira, Jason Day, and last year's runner-up, Maverick McNealy, round out the top of the board.
The field has been set at 156. Each player will be paired with a celebrity. The players will rotate through the three courses -- Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Monterey Peninsula Country Club -- before returning to Pebble Beach GL for the final round. The top 60 and ties make the cut.
**Daniel Berger has WD due to hid back injury and Willy Z has WD due to covid
Winning Trends for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Each of the last 15 winners was already a winner on Tour
- Each of the last 15 winners had a Top 25 or better at Pebble
- Only three of the last 50 winners were non-American
- The last 12 champions played the Pebble Beach Pro-Am at least twice
- The last 11 champions had played at least 120 events on Tour
Trends courtesy of @PGASplits101
Pebble Beach Golf Links Course Breakdown
- Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Monterey Peninsula Country Club
- Location: Pebble Beach, CA, USA
- Yardage: PB = 6,972 yards; SH = 7,041 yards; MP = 6,957 yards
- Par: PB = 72; SH = 72; MP = 71
- Grass: Poa annua greens on all three
- Architect: PB = Jack Nevill and Douglas Grant (1919); SH = Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1966);
- Comp Courses: Silverado Resort; TPC River Highlands, La Quinta CC, TPC Craig Ranch
The spectacle that is Pebble Beach will be on display this week for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. One of the most sought-after golf destinations in the world. Hell, Clint effing Eastwood was the mayor of the local town. Expect easy scoring, coastal conditions on Pebble Beach GL and Monterey Peninsula. Spyglass is a bit more inland and typically plays as the harder of the three.
Being it is a pro-am, the tees, pins, and layouts are a bit softer than normal. The rough is also pretty tame and cut to 2" or less on all three courses. Pebble has some of the smallest greens on Tour and the most bunkers on a course as well with 118. Players will have to navigate the slopes and fall-offs leading straight down towards the Pacific ocean. Monterrey is the easiest of the three with large greens and a few creeks to deal with.
There doesn't appear to be much in the forecast that could affect scoring. It won't be very warm but I'd trade it over where I'm sitting.
Key Stats for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Good Drives
- Greens in Regulation %
- Par 5 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Opps Gained
- Birdie or Better %
Events that are played on multiple courses are always weird to nail down. Fortunately, these courses all play so similarly. We also know from years of course history that anyone can win here. From DJ to Ted Potter Jr., who also beat DJ in a final-round duel. Length really isn't going to do you any favors here. Your short irons and wedges better be crispy though. Beyond that, it's a putting week. Whoever has the hottest flatstick is likely to take it down.
I like Good Drives gained and GIR% with the rough not being penal and greens being tiny. This is why I like Scrambling as well. There's a lot of Par 5s on the property so scoring on those is a must. Two more scoring stats that I'm always drawn towards when the winning score will be high are Birdie or better % and Opps Gained.
Here's a tidbit from our Nut Hut in-house caddie: "Fairways are generously soft and greens are smaller than average. It’s a pro-am. It’s a slog to the finish. Minimize bogeys, hit greens, keep three-putts off the card, build a score."
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The Picks & Fades
Each week we will give you some plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks make sure to check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast.
To Play or Not to Play Brooks Koepka
BK is not in the field.
$9K & AboveÂ
- DB: Play - Kevin Streelman | Fade - Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Pat: Play - Jason Day | Fade - Matthew Fitzpatrick
- AC: Play - Justin Rose, Cameron Tringale, Kevin Kisner | Fade - Matthew Fitzpatrick
I am prepared to play Patrick Cantlay this week. Will ultimately come down to ownership. Rose had my eye last week. He helped me take down some decent showdowns and sets up well this week again. 1st ins opps gained and top 15 in course-suited par 4s, par 5s, and DK scoring. Tringale is also a scorer and was a regular play for me last season. Back on the Tringale train. Kisner popped off for us at Sony and Pebble sets up well for him as well. Solid flatstick and knows how to score.
Easy fade on Fitz. He's the 25th ranked golfer in the world but hasn't played since the Hero and hasn't played well at Pebble.
$8K Range
- DB: Play - Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Fade - Brian Harman
- Pat: Play - Denny McCarthy | Fade - Brian Harman
- AC: Play - Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Matt Jones | Fade - Denny McCarthy
This will be CBez's first start at Pebble but I like how his game sets up. Killer short game and no need for length. Jones definitely caught my eye. Was great at the US Open three years ago and is 9th in my tournament history model. This will be his 13th trip to the Pro-Am with five top 15s.
The fades are a toss-up in this range but I landed on Denny which pat will hate. He's a great putter but Poa is his worst surface. He's played Pebble twice with a MC and a T66. Fade is more based on the price than anything else.
$7K Ranges
- DB: Play - Michael Thompson | Fade - Keith Mitchell
- Pat: Play - Lucas Glover | Fade - Cameron Champ
- AC: Play - Michael Thompson, Nick Taylor, Matthew NeSmith | Fade - Aaron Rai
Thompson checks a lot of boxes including Strokes Gained: Beard. It's a great look and it shows in his game recently. History is up and down but has a T10 in 2019. Canadian!, Nick Taylor, is a former champ here and loves this place. Taylor showed some form the last two weeks and was a few missed putts away from a solid finish last week. Same with NeSmith. The form is great coming off a T34 last week which he lost some strokes on approach. In the last six months, he's 16th in the field in approach so easy candidate for a bounceback. The putter was hot though. He knows how to make birdies.
I don't see this course suiting Rai, especially as a debutant. I think ppl will have seen his name last week and want to hop on.
$6K Range
- DB: Play - Ryan Armour, Mark Hubbard, Ben Kohles
- Pat: Play - Austin Smotherman, Chesson Hadley, Satoshi Kodaira
- AC: Play - Adam Svensson, Kevin Chappell, Brunson Burgoon
It's pretty slim pickens down here this week. Svensson had a terrible weekend at Torrey and I expect he'll want some quickly put that aside. Chappell and Burgoon aren't going to pop in stat models -- most $6k guys aren't -- but both rank very high in the tournament history model. Chappell has a T25 and a T8 in two of his last three tries. Burgoon hasn't missed the cut in three tries with nothing worse than a T47. Both should be super low owned.
There ya go. Another 54-hole cut. Can be a bit more aggressive with your picks. Be different. Beware of ownership. Course history is a factor this week. Save some bankroll. Good luck!
THE INS & OUTS
*The field is 156