Ownership Review | Charles SChwab Challenge 2022
Ah, the old saying "hindsight is 20/20" has now been turned into an official series. The Ownership Review pieces will come out every Monday by yours truly, and will simply be a recap of the overowned vs. underowned of the week's event. I'll also touch a little on the difference in ownership between the lower stakes contests vs. the higher stakes (DFS sharps) contests. Hopefully in turn, over time, we'll get a better feel on what defines good chalk, and what chalk the DFS pros are running away from.
The Good
Jordan Spieth ($10,400) | 33.79%
This was another quirky week for ownership. The highest owned players were very mediocre. The highest scoring players in the event were very mediocre-ly owned. On top of that, Scottie Scheffler was in control of the tournament before going birdie-less on Sunday, eventually losing to Sam Burns in a playoff. Strange week.
Jordan Spieth was a bright spot from a chalky perspective. He was the highest owned player across all contests, and played consistently well, posting a T7 finish. He was five-under at the halfway point, four back of the leaders. He would go on to finish at five-under for the event, four back of the leaders.
It was a lackluster weekend for Spieth, but overall, a good week. Another good week in a string that he's been putting together, eventually leading to a victory at St. Andrews later this summer? We shall see.
The Bad
Brian Harman ($7,800) | 31.89%
Ah, the chalk bomb of all chalk bombs this week. Brian Harman was the slam dunk, easy value, free square, all of the above. Until he wasn't. On the bright side, he jammed in the knife quickly, climbing to seven-over in his first 15 holes, eventually shooting an opening 77 (+7). He finished with four birdies on his back nine on Friday, but the damage was done early. No sweat involved.
Harman was an even bigger bomb for the high-stakes players, as he was just over 47% owned in the $3,180 19th Hole contest, 8.5% higher than the next highest owned player, Jordan Spieth. I created five different lineups this week, and Harman was in one. A little FOMO in the event that he actually did live up to expectations; but generally speaking, a chalky Brian Harman is never a good sign.
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Us VS The High Rollers
Difficult to even identify the "good" chalk from the "bad chalk" this week. This was a week to find value in the 10%-12% range, and avoid the chalk on both ends of the spectrum.
The Review
This is the event that personifies "golf DFS is hard". Everyone we thought would excel this week generally played well, but didn't do enough. The guys we thought would be solid lineup fillers, excelled this week. It's the slimmest of margins, but that's what makes all the difference in DFS.
Scottie Scheffler had a chance to do something that hasn't been done since 1980. We finally found a stat that *wasn't* completed by Tiger Woods. Scheffler was trying to become the first player since Tom Watson to win 5 times, including a major, before June 1st. In shocking fashion, Sam Burns fired a final-round 65, to Scheffler's final-round 72 (birdie-less) to force a playoff. Burns would go on to birdie the first hole to win.
It was a mind-boggling finish to a mind-boggling DFS week. It just goes to show: we know nothing. Golf is the hardest sport to play, and it's the hardest sport to predict on a week-in, week-out basis. But, we must go on. Let's "chalk" this one up as a "hmm, interesting" week, and get ready for the Memorial.
Here is a little breakdown of the ownership differences between the $5 Drive the Green and the $3,180 19th Hole contests (data provided by Fantasy Labs):
[Player ($5 / $3,180)]
Brian Harman (21.6% / 47.0%)
Harold Varner III (19.7% / 29.9%)
Jordan Spieth (29.4% / 38.8%)
Kevin Na (17.5% / 24.6% )
Webb Simpson (10.0% / 17.2%)
Justin Thomas (16.9% / 11.9%)
Scottie Scheffler (13.5% / 8.2%)
Abraham Ancer (13.4% / 6.0%)
Will Zalatoris (10.9% / 6.0%)
Don't forget to check out my Pivot Point series every Wednesday to see how to *properly* avoid the chalk each week! After you read that, or before, check out the Tour Junkies Youtube page, as they're producing video content like you wouldn't believe!