The Rundown: 2023 John Deere Classic
It wasn't quite the greenside scene from the 2019 Masters, but Rickie Fowler's 'Return to Glory' was every bit as awesome for those who've stuck by the orange-clad Californian during his four long years in the wilderness. It's worth noting last week's Rocket Mortgage didn't exactly feature the strongest field, but for a guy who had dropped all the way to No. 185 in the world just last year, he'll take whatever he can get. The same will be true of the 156-man field this week at the lovable John Deere Classic. Only nine of the top 50 in the OWGR are making the trip to the Quad Cities, but $1.3 million and a Masters invite are up for grabs whoever can take advantage of the weak field. Here's everything you need to know to earn some money yourself betting on the 2023 John Deere Classic.
course notes & quotes
The John Deere Classic has been played at TPC Deere Run near the Illinois-Iowa border since 2000. Over that span, the tournament has gained a reputation for fantastic finishes and tightly-bunched leaderboards, even if the names on those boards haven't been the biggest.
The 7,289-yard par-71 produces a yearly birdie fest with the winning score typically in the low twenties to high teens. TPC Deere run features bentgrass fairways and greens, both of which are easier than average to hit. Last year's field hit over 70% of fairways and greens in regulation, so it comes as no surprise that 11 holes played under par for the week.
A look a recent leaderboards shows there's more than one way to go low at TPC Deere Run, but it's also a course that sets up well for the shorter, more accurate hitters. Much like Detroit Golf Club last week, it's important to hit fairways just to keep up with the scoring barrage. The blend of Kentucky Bluegrass and fescue rough will be grown up to four inches and is really the main defense of the course. According to DataGolf, the rough at TPC Deere Run ranks among the most penal on TOUR with players averaging an extra .41 strokes when playing from the long stuff.
"The golf course has enough angles, and the holes that you can force it down there a little bit farther, they’re pretty difficult tee shots," said 2016 John Deere Classic champion Ryan Moore. "So guys that hit it significantly farther than me don’t have a huge advantage on a golf course like this.”
Even with a limited field, it will take a phenomenal ball-striking week paired with some fortune on the greens to win what will likely become a putting contest at TPC Deere Run. Performance on the par-5s will be especially key as all three can be reached relatively easily, and it will also be important not to lose ground on the par-3s which rank as the easiest on TOUR.
Short Kings
“The golf course has enough angles, and the holes that you can force it down there a little bit farther, they’re pretty difficult tee shots, so guys that hit it significantly farther than me don’t have a huge advantage on a golf course like this.”
— 2016 John Deere Classic Champion Ryan Moore
Course history
The John Deere Classic has an eclectic list of previous winners, several of which are easy to forget until you see their names highlighted on the Wikipedia page. Names like J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover and Ryan Moore are proof that distance off the tee is certainly not a requirement, but experienced golf bettors know it never hurts. TPC Deere Run is a classic low-scoring track that requires fairways and GIR for consistent birdie looks to keep up with the pace. Here are few notes and numbers to keep in mind when making your picks.
Off the Tee
With fairways as wide as these, you damn well better hit them. Accuracy off the tee will be easier to come by, but it will be a necessity. While the rough around TPC Deere Run won't force too many bogeys, it does make birdies significantly harder to come by, and this week, if you're not making birdies, you're falling behind. Of the 59 players to finish T10 or better since 2017, 42.3% of them ranked T15 or better in driving accuracy that week.
Tee to Green
With a short number on the scorecard, players can expect a lot of short-mid iron approaches this week. At last year's event, almost 44% of approaches came from inside 150 yards. Like most of the easier courses on TOUR, TPC Deere Run is a second-shot course that will require tight approaches to keep up with the low scoring. Once again looking at T10 finishers from the last five years, 52.5% ranked T15 or better in SG: APP for the week.
Around the Green
These bentgrass greens won't give the players too much trouble, especially since we should see more putts from mid-to-close range as a result of shorter approach shots. While DataGolf ranks TPC Deere Run as the 30th most-predictive course on TOUR, it could be worth looking at putting numbers from TPC Craig Ranch earlier this year, as both tracks feature bent greens and low scores. Putting leaders from that week in this field include Adam Long, Mike Gligic, David Lipsky, Dylan Frittelli, Jonas Blixt, Austin Cook and Greyson Murray.
Betting picks & plays
Easy scoring conditions + weak field = VARIANCE. So we are taking a look at some names you maybe haven't considered all year long because they've been too far down the odds sheet. As always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang, including DB's Big Balls Betting Card, which always comes in hot with the long bomb plays. With that said, here are some names and numbers I like at the John Deere Classic.
Adam Schenk (+2800, T10: +320)
Other than having the best last name in the game, there's a lot to like about Adam Schenk. He ranks 11th on TOUR in total birdies, so he has the gunslinger mentality and skill to reach that -20 number that will likely be required to win. But like gunslingers tend to be, Schenk is very much boom or bust. In his last 11 starts, Schenk has four top 10s, six missed cuts and a T31. Here's hoping he can keep it going after a solid seventh-place finish in Detroit last week where his 20-under total wasn't quite enough.
Chris Kirk (+3500, T10: +360)
Yes, I was on him last week, but while he wasn't much of a factor on Sunday, the Bulldog did cash in a nice +230 top 20. Perhaps I was a little early on Chris Kirk, but I can't help but feel that if Ieave him off the card, he's absolutely going to win. On a very similar scoring setup to last week, I think Kirk's game is also a good fit for TPC Deere Run. He's automatic with the short clubs on approach, ranking inside the top 10 on TOUR in approach proximity from 50-125 yards and 125-150 yards, and his above-average putting should see him capitalize when he sticks it in tight.
Carson Young (+8000, T10: +750)
Yes, you read that right. While Cameron Young may be the highest-ranked player in the field, I'm more interested in Carson. He's surprisingly been the better of the two as of late, finishing T22 or better in five of his last 10 starts. His putter also seems to be heating up at the right time as he gained strokes on the greens in eight of those 10 events, and his approach has been solid as well, also gaining strokes in eight of his last 10 starts.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.