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3M Open

DraftKings Picks for The 3M Open Championship 2021

Quite the week in golf as Collin Morikawa put on a ball striking clinic to take down the Open Championship at Royal St George’s in his debut while Seamus Power and Tour Junkies favorite JT Poston dueled it out in another extended playoff for the Barbasol Championship in Kentucky. The golf season is starting to wind down but we do have a few treats left with the FedEx Cup Playoffs ramping up. The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota is on deck. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week. 

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Morikawa is two for four in winning major championships in his first start and of course already has two pieces of the grand slam before the age of 25. We just missed out on Jordan Spieth claiming another Open and one bad round from Brooks Koepka hurt his chances as well. The PGA Tour had some drama of its own with the third extended playoff in a row required to crown the winner of the Barbasol Championship. Power took it down after six extra holes to score his first PGA Tour win and secure his card after battling the last few months to climb the FedEx Cup rankings.

Coming off of a major, having the Olympic golf tournament next week, and a World Golf Championship (WGC) event in two weeks -- the field for the 3M Open is well what you would kind of expect. Defending champion Michael Thompson and 2019 champion Matthew Wollf are in the field joined by the likes of world #2 Dustin Johnson who tops the DK salaries at $11,300. Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Davis, Bubba Watson, and Robert Macintyre round out the $9ks and above though WDs are very common for weeks like this. The field has been capped at 156 with the low 65 and ties making the cut.

TPC Twin Cities Course Breakdown

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The legendary Arnold Palmer is the brain behind TPC Twin Cities, designing the 7,400 yard par 71 in 2000 with Steve Wenzloff renovating in 2018 before the PGA Tour brought the 3M Championship to Blaine, Minnesota. The course features Bentgrass from tee to green with a Bluegrass/fescue mix in the rough which is cut at 3”. 

The greens are on the larger side rolling at 12-12.5 on the stimp meter but additionally to that, Blaine and the surrounding areas have only received about two inches of water in the last two months so the course may play a bit firm and fast. Water however, will be everywhere else as the course has 27 hazards with water in play on 15 holes including nine of the 14 driving holes. The renovations did include narrowing the fairways which are still easily hittable but will be lined by 72 bunkers around the course.

For key stats this week, fire up all the scoring potential. Fantasy National’s Opps gained, birdie or better %, eagles, DK scoring, strokes gained approach, and putting on Bentgrass. Distance off the tee can be a big bonus with short and easy rough and good drives gained will give a good look as well. A lot of the courses over the last month or so have been similar so recent form is something we will all look at especially over course history as this is just the third time the 3M Open has been played at Twin Cities. 

The previous two top scores were -19 in 2020 and -21 from Wolff in 2019. There are three par 5s, all ranging from 550-600 yards which will be super important to score on. Par 3s over 200 yards which will also account for a lot of the shots into greens according to Fantasy national’s course breakdown. Long irons will play a huge part as Justin Ray has also reported that this course has the second-most approach shots from 175-200 yards on any course over the last two seasons.

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The Picks & Fades

Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.

$9k+:

DB: Play - Tony Finau | Fade - Matthew Wolff

Pat: Play - Matthew Wolff | Fade - Louis Oosthuzien

AC: Play - Tony Finau, Cameron Tringale, Cameron Davis | Fade - Dustin Johnson

It feels like forever ago when I made my statement about Tony Finau winning twice in 2021. Though there have been some chances it has been quite a disappointing season. I faded last week at The Open but maybe Tony found something and in a week like this, could be just what Finau needs to score his first real win. Tringale is comfortably sitting 39th FedEx Cup rankings and performs well in birdie fests coming in 4th in strokes gained total on easy scoring, bentgrass rounds and 4th in overall putting. The last three months he’s 6th in par 4 scoring, 11th in 550-600 par 5 scoring, and 14th in birdie or better (BoB) %. Earlier in the season I was all over him, he has 7 top 20s or better and coming off a career best major performance and a 14th in Detroit the week before. T3 and a T42 course in his two 3M starts. Back on the Davis train. An easy forgivable performance after his first PGA Tour win and now he’s back in business on a course that accommodates length.

DJ did not have a great time here in 2020 making a mess of the 18th hole (his 9th), ultimately shooting a 7-over 78 en route to a first round WD. He did show some form at The Open but it is a major, this is likely the farthest thing from it and at his price and ownership he pretty much needs a win.

$8k:

DB: Play - Rickie Fowler | Fade - Dylan Frittelli

Pat: Play - Charl Schwartzel | Fade - Gary Woodland

AC: Play - Patton Kizzire, Luke List | Fade - Keegan Bradley

Kizzire sits 47th in the FedEx Cup while 2nd in SG total and 1st in short game over his last 12 rounds on easy/bent courses. The last three months he's 10th opps gained, 1st in BoB%, and 5th in putting. Had two top 3s followed by three missed cuts which he rebounded with a 25th in Detroit and 11th at JDC. Nothing crazy in course history but two top 50s. List is 89th in the FedEx Cup coming off of two top 5s in a row. Just killing it tee to green. 2nd T2G, 5th ball striking, and 3rd around the green his last 12 rounds on easy/bent courses but suffers with the putting. Over 22 strokes gained in the last two events. List is 1st in my model over the last 3 months dominating par 5s, 200+ par 3s, driving distance, opps gained.

I think the boys pretty much nailed the best fades in the $8k range with Frittelli and Woodland so I’ll throw out Keegan. Three MCs in his last four starts and coming to a course where he played just once, finishing T46 in 2019. The birdie numbers and putter have been extra bad his last few events. 

$7k:

DB: Play - Doug Ghim | Fade - Michael Thompson

Pat: Play - Patrick Rodgers | Fade - Richie Werenski

AC: Play - Doug Ghim, Mito Pereira, Troy Merritt | Fade - Matt Kuchar

Ghim is 79th in the FedEx Cup finishing 18th in his last start and a T18 at the 3M last year. Ghim is 10th good drives gained and 12th T2G in the last three months and 17th T2G on easy scoring conditions. Mito has been talked up in my last couple PGA previews. He missed the cut by a couple in a super birdie fest in his first real PGA Tour start by making two too many bogeys. Followed it up by a T34 his next time out and now a T5 last week. Gained 16 strokes T2G over those two starts. Going to play the local narrative and hop back on Merritt. He did it for us a couple weeks ago and if not for a last minute change, merritt would have won me all the money at the Rocket Mortgage. He does have a T7 here in 2019 and comes in with the hottest putter over the last three months.

Yaya, big shocker to see Kuch here. “Way to go out on a limb, AC!” Listen, I'm just counting down the days until Kuchar is on the senior tour. The MCs are piling up and he comes to a new course on his schedule with abysmal form. Play at your own risk.

$6k: 

DB: Play - Roger Sloan, Tom Hoge, Vincent Whaley

Pat: Play - Cameron Percy, Scott Brown, Kevin Tway

AC: Play - Jason Dufner, Wes Roach, Michael Gellerman

I like where we all are looking here in the 6ks this week. Hoge has the local narrative with Whaley making 11 of his last 14 cuts. My Canadian homie Roger Sloan made three straight cuts. Percy has four straight cuts with a T11 at John Deere and Tway making four of his own. 

Dufner ranks best in my model coming in at 17th. The ball striking has been so good lately and he’s #1 in opps gained over the last three months. Roach is on seven straight made cuts and sits in 201st in the FedEx Cup rankings, needing a top 200 to secure a spot in the Korn Ferry Tour finals. I had to go way down for Gellerman but if you need some relief down here I think he’s the play. Before the MC at the Barbasol, Gellerman had a T34 at John Deere and a T41 at Rocket Mortgage. He played the 3M in 2020 and finished T46 which is more than enough value.

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: Brian Harman, Seamus Power, Peter Uihlein, Jason Kokrak, Branden Grace

IN: David Lingmerth (alt), Greg Chalmers (alt), Ben Crane (Sponsor), Sangmoon Bae, Bobby Mac (Open t10), DA Points (Sponsor), Ricky Barnes

Open qualifiers:

61 (-10) Stephen Stallings, Jr. (1 eagle, 8 birdies)

62 (-9) Tom Lovelady (9 birdies)

63 (-8) Justin Quiban (1 eagle, 7 birdies, 1 bogey)

64 (-7) Norman Xiong (1 eagle, 5 birdies)

Field is set at 156