The Power Fade: 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The Approach to fading big names for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
Long-shot Season continued last week as Matthieu Pavon took down his first career PGA TOUR win at Torrey Pines. With San Diego in our rearview mirror we head up the California coastline to stunning Pebble Beach, and what we all look forward to every year, seeing shots of Ray Romano and Larry The Cable Guy.
This year's edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am looks a touch different than years past. First of all, we will see only two courses (Pebble and Spyglass) in the rotation... so long Monterrey Peninsula. We have seen this situation before in the 2020-21 COVID-19 season. (Daniel Berger won the event at -19)
The Pro-Am portion of the tournament will only be 36 holes this year, and more importantly this is now a no-cut event. Justin Rose seeks to defend his title and even thou Monterrey Peninsula is not being played, we should see low scores provided the weather does not wreck havoc. Expect to see a winning score between -17 to -20 this week as you will have to go low to hoist the trophy on Sunday.
Without further adieu, let's get into our Power Fades for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)
Scottie Scheffler makes a rare appearance this week in the Power Fade at $11,400 on DraftKings. While there is no doubt that Scottie has winning upside this week, We also cannot play everybody and need to trim our player pool.
Why The Fade Works:
Scheffler's stats even point to being successful this week, however there are a couple blips that make this fade worthwhile.
Strokes Gained Total will play a big role in a player's success this week. Scottie does come in ranked 41st this week which is well below his peers in the 10K and above range on DraftKings.
While Scheffler back-doored his way to a 17th finish at the AM EX, the eye test says he struggled overall. Iron play was off just a touch for the World's #1 player and if that continues, he may find himself in the many bunkers Pebble Beach has to offer. With a 55th ranking in Sand Save percentage, this could be the difference in Scottie being optimal even in a No-Cut Event.
Scottie also has had very limited experience with Pebble Beach. While the US Open has no true correlation, Scheffler did MC that week so maybe he just isn't comfortable with Pebble in general so that is why he hasn't returned to play the Pro-Am.
We are truly taking a bold fade by fading the World's #1. Simply put the stats just line up for better plays in the 10K range. With soft pricing many will be trying to jam studs in their lineups. This could also lead to Scottie's ownership being a touch inflated leading us to pivot to Rory McIlroy or down the board to Xander or Max Homa.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)
Another week, another historical edition of the Power Fade, as for the first time ever we have a player appearing 3 weeks in a row! Patrick Cantlay maintains his spot, this time at $9,700 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Cantlay has been struggling the last few weeks, which is shocking for the California native. When looking into the stats, Cantlay ranks 53rd in Strokes Gained Total. With his recent struggles, he certainly has been playing much worse than this stats show.
Pebble Beach and Spyglass present an interesting statistical dilemma. Bogey Avoidance is a premium stat because of the two way nature the weather can play for this event. If the weather is tame, you certainly will be left in the dust making bogey. However, if the weather is sub-optimal, those who can avoid bogey and grind out pars become a premium. Cantlay has been struggling with this compared to others in the 9k range. Ranking 55th in Bogey Avoidance this week is a recipe for a continued underwhelming performance for Cantlay and I believe we should look elsewhere in the 9K range on DraftKings this week.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade. I will return to you next week for the WM Phoenix Open where Team TJ will be onsite!
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"Scottie also has had very limited experience with Pebble Beach. While the US Open has no true correlation, Scheffler did MC that week so maybe he just isn't comfortable with Pebble in general so that is why he hasn't returned to play the Pro-Am".
Meet the Author:
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.