The Power Fade: 2023 Shriners Children's Open
The Approach to fading big names for the 2023 Shriners Children's Open
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
With Luke List's triumph in the 5 way playoff in our rearview mirror, we head to Las Vegas for the Shriners Children's Open. Tom Kim looks to repeat in a field that is similar in strength to last week.
TPC Summerlin plays as a Par 71 at about 7,400 yards. The Bobby Weed/Fuzzy Zoeller design lends itself to a birdie-fest as the winning score should find itself between 20-24 under par.
Without further adieu, let's take a look at who is drawing dead here in Vegas for the Shriners Children's Open!
Adam Hadwin ($9,300)
Our first Power Fade of the week comes to us from North of the Border. Adam Hadwin makes his Power Fade debut this week at $9,300 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
When you think of birdie-fests on the PGA TOUR, Adam Hadwin's name is not the first name that comes to mind.
Delving into the key stats for this week, Hadwin shows real struggles in a few categories. Our first concern is that Hadwin ranks 70th Greens in Regulation Gained. It is well documented that you have to hit GIR at a premium at the Shriner's. If you are scrambling for par all day, you will be left in the dust.
Secondly, Hadwin ranks a putrid 78th in Birdies for this field. With the weather forecast looking prime for scoring this week, someone who projects with low birdie upside at an over 9K price tag on DraftKings just won't get it done. I just don't see how Hadwin can get to -20 or deeper to lift the trophy on Sunday.
Lastly, Hadwin ranks 104th in Bogey Avoidance for the week. This is ALARMING to put it mildly. The dreaded bogey creeps up on even the best golfers in this field, but to be ranking this low is a recipe for disaster. Sometimes taking on more ownership and getting creative down the board is the play. I would recommend pivoting to Adam Schenk or JJ Spaun and fading Hadwin.
Tom Hoge ($8,700)
Our second Power Fade of the Week is our resident TCU Horned Frog of the PGA TOUR. Tom Hoge makes a return to Power Fade this week at $8,700 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Tom Hoge comes into the week with quite a bit of steam behind him. The DFS podcast world will always try to push Hoge in perceived "wedge-fest" but the stats just simply don't back up the love.
Coming into this week ranking 90th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 113th in Good Drives Gained is a brutal reality for Hoge.
TPC Summerlin isn't Winged Foot or Oakmont where you get off the fairway and you pray for bogey, but you still have to keep the ball in play. With a pension for hitting the foul ball, this makes Hoge a concerning play.
While yes its true that Hoge can make birdies in bunches (He ranks 2nd in this field for Birdies), he also loves himself a big number. Hoge ranks 66th in this field for Bogey Avoidance. I know it seems repetitive and I bring this up each week, but in these high variance situations, fading the chalk is the way to go.
Early ownership projections have Hoge pushing 18%. This presents a great opportunity to pivot to other 8k range names at half to a third of the ownership and gain some great leverage in our GPP's.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade. We will be returning to you next week as we head to Japan for the ZOZO Championship!
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"The dreaded bogey creeps up on even the best golfers in this field, but to be ranking this low is a recipe for disaster. Sometimes taking on more ownership and getting creative down the board is the play. I would recommend pivoting to Adam Schenk or JJ Spaun and fading Hadwin".
Meet the Author:
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.