WGC Workday 2021 Betting Card
Betting the WGC Workday
The PGA TOUR was forced to pivot from Mexico this week and take the traveling circus to Bradenton, FL. for the WGC Workday from Concession Golf Club. It's a beefy par 72 playing over 7400 yards. The Nicklaus / Jacklin design should play difficult with the sportsbooks winning score projections at O/U -14.5.
The fairways are generous, but missing them could be very costly with water in play on most holes as well as tree lined woods. The biggest defense on this course will be the greens from what we hear. The greens are extremely undulating with traditional grainy, tifeagle bermuda. The landing areas will be small on approach and misses will be carried away with closely mown runoffs.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My WGC Workday 2021 Picks
Bome! We nailed Max Homa last week at 70/1 on this very card! That puts the Big Balls Betting Card up 17 units since the new season started in September!
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 6 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
We've received some very helpful insight from a pair of boots on the ground at Concession and it's somewhat changed my outright approach since my early thoughts on Monday night for the podcast. All the salacious details can be found in the NUT HUT.
Brooks & Reed are my 2 "shorter" plays given the quality of the field, likely winning score, and the fact that Jack wants to produce elite winners here I'm sure. Brooks is best on bermuda, a Florida boy through and through and coming off a win (that we nailed btw). Plus, it's a big time event and Brooks is big time. The Reed play applies when it's going to be a grinder type event. If it requires precision iron play, elite scrambling and putting while staying patient...gimme Reed.
Sungae coming off a 2 week break (finally), loving bermuda and having such elite irons is too tempting to pass up. The form is trending nicely and he's proven he can compete in strong fields with a runner up at The Masters and a win last year at another tough Florida track for the Honda.
Cam Smith's elite short game around the greens, 4th place finish last week at another tough track with an elite field and his record in big events is all I need to jump on at 60/1.
Guess who's number 1 over the last 75 rounds on bermuda putting surfaces and finished 5th last week at the Genesis? Matthew Fitzpatrick! He loves tough, grinder type tracks...6th WGC St Jude, 3rd at Memorial (Jack's place), 9th at API all in 2020. His WGC record overall is strong to quite strong.
Jason Day is scary AF in a no cut event where you get paid as long as you hit your first tee shot. However, the weather is warm and coming off the T7 at Pebble Beach. Short game around the greens and a putting contest...he's worth a shot at 66/1.
I love the value on Leishman at triple digits. This guy is a big time winner worldwide and this event is not too big for him if he finds himself in the mix on Sunday. Plus, he's back in his normal form of late. He plays well in Florida and his best putting surface is bermuda. Too long a number for Leish...
Finally, another WD risk, but I'm rolling the dice with another grinder in Kevin Na. He's already won this year, and he's another guy that's proven to be pretty fearless when in contention in big fields. His best putting surface is bermuda and he's one of the best scramblers on the PGA TOUR. He doesn't have much to right home about in terms of high finishes at WGC events, but his record at Memorial is fantastic. He finished runner up at Jack's place in 2014 and 9th in 2020.
Koepka 25/1 DK Sportsbook $10
Reed 30/1 PointsBet $10
Im 40/1 DK Sportsbook $8
Smith 60/1 DK Sportsbook $5
Fitzpatrick 66/1 PointsBet $5
Day 66/1 PointsBet $5
Leishman 125/1 DK Sportsbook $4
Na 125/1 PointsBet $3