Outright Bets for The Wells Fargo Championship 2022
The Betting Approach for The Wells Fargo Championship 2022
MOTHER F! This PGA TOUR season is not very on brand for the BIG BALLS BETTING CARD as Jon Rahm wins at +350. Give me a break man! I'd rather step on a sea of legos than place an outright bet on golf at +350. I wouldn't be able to look at myself in the mirror on Monday morning. So we move on to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm for the Wells Fargo Championship. We're in quite the dry spell at the moment, but we press on and stay with the process. This is gambling people and it's golf...if you do this regularly, you clearly have something inside of you that enjoys punishment and anguish.
The books are projecting the winning score at around -11.5. I find that number lower than I anticipated given the rain coming this week and the receptive greens. TPC Potomac is setting up to play a lot more like 2018 than it did in 2017 with this weather. In 2018, Molinari won at -21, but 7 players finished at -10 or better and 3 posted better than -11.5. We're already hearing from those on site that the course is soft (and more rain is coming), and the rough isn't up as much as it's been in the past.
More Intel on TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). Or, you can watch this video on our YouTube channel where I share stats, trends, player quotes and more about the golf course in just 15 minutes. We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Wells Fargo Championship 2022
18 events into the 2022 stretch of the PGA TOUR season and only 3 have been 100/1 or longer (and we hit 2 of the 3). We've now had 9 winners in 18 events at 25/1 or shorter in the 2022 leg of the PGA TOUR season. I find my article down 13 units since September and I'd punch a nun in the face for an outright hit this week.
I'm certainly finding myself turning a little more towards the longer hitters than I anticipated I would on Sunday or early Monday given the conditions forecasted. But, as long as you're a top tier iron player, and specifically a long iron player, then I'm still interested. I think around the green play will matter some, but likely less with softer greens at hand. I'm also fully invested in disregarding putting statistics for the most part as pure bent grass is an equalizing surface to begin with, plus these small greens should limit 3 putt potential for most of the guys. We've just seen garbage putters do well here, and I don't see why that trend couldn't hold up this week.
Damnit this is a ballsy card for a guy down 13 units and hasn't hit a winner since gas prices were in the $2/gallon range in Georgia! I'm going for anywhere between 30 or 35 units with this card based on my affinity for these fellas. I was tempted to jam in Henley and/or Keegan, but I just love the value on these other guys and I couldn't make it all fit.
Lipsky and Knox are the only guys that aren't bombers. I could see these 2 hitting a couple more drivers each day than the rest of the bunch, but both are in good form with the irons, and Knox has tremendous long term numbers with his long irons.
As I said above, I'm buying more bombers given the softer conditions as it should take the bite out of the fairways. Plus we've heard the rough isn't that bad, and we know the greens are rather receptive at the moment.
You'll also notice that 8 of 9 are in the PM/AM wave. I'm not necessarily going to have 90+% of my DFS player pool in the PM/AM wave, but it's looking as of now that there could be a wind advantage to that crowd. In terms of the betting card, it honestly just fell that way primarily because those are just the guys I like the most.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!