Betting Long Shots for The Valero Texas Open 2021
The Betting Approach for The Valero Texas Open 2021
The foreplay event leading up to The Masters is upon us as the PGA TOUR travels to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. This Greg Norman design feature tighter sight lines off the tee with trouble looming, undulating greens with small landing areas, and supposedly some fresh Texas wind in the forecast for 2021. The winning score projected by most sportsbooks is -14.5.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how TPC San Antonio will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
TPC San Antonio has some history where it can play rather difficult, but the last 2 years have been rather soft. However, given the wind forecast as of Wednesday around noon, I do think we're going to see some teeth out of this Norman course. I feel like this is not the week to come in spraying your ball a little...I want guys that come in already hitting fairways and gaining strokes with their irons. The overseeded bermuda greens also aren't likely to putt like typical grainy bermuda given the overseed this time of year.
Plenty of longshots have won this event and the last 2 winners (both at 200/1) include Corey Conners winning after getting in through Monday Qualifier. Since the tournament moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010, six of the winners have been between 100/1 and 350/1. Given the weak field, and some of the big names getting in their last minute tune up...I'm thinking it's setting up nicely for #LongShotSZN!
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for The Valero Texas Open 2021
Thank God last week is over and next week is The Masters. You'll notice for the first time in a while, that I've got a trio of first round leaders. Given the cold temps and gusts in the upper 20s tomorrow for the morning wave, I'm taking 3 long shots teeing off in the afternoon when it's warmed up and wind gusts are cut in half. As a reminder, a lot of first round leader bets get split due to ties and dead heat rules, and I don't get an erection splitting a guy 3 ways at 50/1.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 7 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 27 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Chris Kirk has continued to do everything well. He's gained nearly 26 strokes total in the last 5 years. Don't be a kumquat and over think this one.
Keegan Bradley's ball striking continues to be otherworldly, and I'm back on the train after jumping off for a breather. He's made 3 of 4 cuts here, including a T9 in 2011.
Lanto Griffin's stinger video from earlier has me with a semi as his iron play continues to stay red hot. Lanto's ability to close the door on any given PGA TOUR event, especially with a garbage field like this, is too enticing at 50/1.
Aaron Wise makes me a little nervous, but his upside is too enticing given his ball striking. Like Keegan, he just needs to have an average putting week. He's gained strokes over his career on difficult courses and in windy conditions. Make a damn putt, Aaron!
Oh Ry Mo! Oh Ry Mo! I'm going with short knocker, super accurate and ridiculous course history guy here with Ryan. He needs a little magic to jump start his game, and he's excited to get to a place where he's very comfortable. He's gained 32 strokes here total in 3 years.
I'll take the Texas Narrative for $1000, Alex. Give me Doug Ghim fresh off an epic Sunday collapse at TPC where he creamed himself on his way to potentially winning his first PGA TOUR event. I love the ball striking prowess in the windy conditions and I gotta believe he learned a ton from TPC.
My quartet of triple digit handsome fuckers are all primed to deliver the units late on Sunday! Ryder and Rodge (Sloan) are showing some major form and confidence lately, and both have been in the final couple groups on a Sunday (Ryder more recently). Wouldn't Kevin Chappell winning this event for the 2nd time while playing off a major medical be the feel good story we all need...? The answer is YES! Chappell's picking and choosing his spots these days as he's working off limited starts, and he's always been a great wind player. KH Lee's short game and off the tee game are very strong. If he can figure out how to hit an iron, he can win.
C. Kirk 45/1 PointsBet $8
K. Bradley 50/1 PointsBet $7
L. Griffin 50/1 PointsBet $6
A. Wise 80/1 PointsBet $4
R. Moore 80/1 DraftKings $4
D. Ghim 80/1 PointsBet $4
S. Ryder 100/1 DraftKings $3
K. Chappell 130/1 DraftKings $2
KH Lee 175/1 DraftKings $2
R. Sloan 200/1 PointsBet $2
First Round Leader
Ghim 80/1 PointsBet $3
NeSmith 90/1 DraftKings $3
Hadley 125/1 PointsBet $2