Outright Bets for The US Open 2023
The Betting Approach for The US Open 2023
Ice cold DB poppin in here to write the article you should probably fade as the season's 3rd major arrives at Los Angeles Country Club for the US Open. I'm in a tough position. I'm down units on the season after a hot start. I'm lacking confidence. I haven't hit a winner since Burns at Match Play. And now...we come to a tournament where long shots rarely win.
If you add up the implied odds to win of the guys shorter than 25/1 from the sharpest book in the world, you get a 50.9% chance my card is dead on arrival. With my self imposed 25/1 or longer restriction (henceforth the "Big Balls...), I'm swimming upstream at a US Open where the cream tends to rise to the top.
However, that don't mean DADDY ain't LETTIN EM HANG! My bitching has come to an end. Let's get into this.
Vegas has the winning score at O/U -8.5. The weather will be perfect all week. Los Angeles Country Club comes in with a lot of excitement and unknown as it's a new course on the USO rotation for everyone. I don't give a golden SHIT about how it played at The Walker Cup or the Pac - Whatever Championship when these guys were still poppin pimples off their face.
I've consumed a TON of LA CC course content from both internet sources and our contacts on site this week. I believe LA CC will NOT lead to a leaderboard of only bombers. I think it's going to test these guys through the bag. I think there are some par 4's out here where guys will NOT hit driver, regardless of how far they hit it. I do believe #FairwaysMatter. I REALLY want guys with short game. Finally, I want guys coming in clickin! I don't care what they're major record is or has been to this point. Don't come up in the backyard of the Playboy Mansion searching for anything but a BLUECHEW (no free ads...but...hit us up BLUECHEW).
More Intel on Los Angeles Country Club
We're still learning what to expect from Los Angeles Country Club, but it's starting to take shape. If you'd like more intel on the course, check out Nate's Rundown article here on the TJ blog when you get a minute. Also, you can watch my course breakdown video in just 15 minutes. Finally...you can watch our interview with US Open hopeful, Hank Lebioda, on our DFS preview. Hank had played the course the last 2 days before speaking with us and he dished the goods!
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The US Open 2023
I've decided to count the live Si Woo outright call from The Amex. Why? Because it was the only call I made live for that week, and because I'm IN CHARGE! I make the rules. I'm like the Greg Norman of this article -- I make shit up as I go along. If I want us all to wear shorts starting tomorrow...so be it! Si Woo call counts!
I'm down 6.5 units on the season, and I'm pissed about it! The half unit is irritating me so I'm spending 5.5 units to win between 29-31 units with a hit. Given we've only had 3 winners out of the last 10 years at 40/1 or longer for the US Open -- I'm pounding the middle of the board!
Ultimately, I landed on a lot of these guys for the same reason; gritty / tough scoring guys, guys that arrive in solid ball striking form, guys with top tier around the green talent, and guys that will avoid 3 putting.
The putting and 3 putt avoidance thing bounced a handful of guys in the final cuts to make this Ballsy card. I'm thinking these extremely sloped greens will make for some stressful par saves all week. I want guys that lean on their short game to keep their baseline up...but arrive with the ball striking in tact as well.
5 selections would be 1st time major champions with Tommy, Mito, and Sahith all looking for their first "PGA TOUR" win. I realize that's uncommon. But...it happened last year with Fitz, so call me inspired. Tommy Lad's a 75 foot putt away from not being called a "choke artist" on the internet. Taylor lags that putt up there on Sunday, and Tommy's looking at a ten foot putt he'd just seen to win the RBC Canadian. Tommy's time is coming.
Mito's a bonehead driver swing away from being a PGA Champion at Southern Hills last year. He's played great at LIV this season and done just fine at The Masters and the PGA Championship.
Sahith...he's just a heart pick with plenty of experience around LA CC. He said he's probably played the course 30 times. He loves the spotlight. LA CC gives him room to work off the tee, and allows his nasty short game to thrive. I do worry about him putting 4 rounds together and closing on some big names if given the chance. However, he's been in big moments already, and he's better for it.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
