Betting Long Shots for THE PLAYERS Championship 2021
The Betting Approach for The Players Championship
One year ago today, something happened that none of us ever saw coming...Pat wore flat front, tight pants as we strolled the fairways of TPC Sawgrass inside the ropes as credentialed media. Damn that boy got that DUMP TRUCK in the back daddy!
Anyway, a bunch of other stuff happened over the last year and here we are at THE PLAYERS Championship from TPC Sawgrass! It's the strongest field we get all year with 154 players on display at the PGA TOUR's flagship event.
THE PLAYERS being moved up to March is a big deal when you consider how it will play, but let me drop a couple of names on you real quick...Jim Furyk, Jhonny Vegas, and Eddie Pepperell...Those were the names that finished just 1 or 2 shots behind 2019 winner, Rory Mcllroy (played in March). I give you those names to inject a little hope in us all that the long shots can win here, despite the strongest field and the biggest names in golf. Not to mention Webb winning in 2018 at 100/1 and Si Woo Kim in 2017 at 500/1. Guess what...those were the strongest fields those years too. Take heart long shot lovers!
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Bay Hill will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
The weather in Ponte Vedra this week looks as perfect as Kelly Kapowski in that green one piece when they worked at the resort for the summer in Saved by the Bell. Zero rain. Temps in the 70s. And, the wind looks as mild as it could get topping out around 12mph for the week. Our Nut Hut Caddie, John Rathouz, has more weather and wind thoughts in the Nut Hut as we sit today, and we'll be sharing more inside thoughts from our other caddie friends in the chat tonight. But for now, this looks place should play a little softer in the fairways (due to rain over the last month and the overseed), but the already fast greens should be nice and glassy by Saturday. The course plays longer in March due to the overseed and cooler temps.
Rory won in 2019 at -16, and I could see it getting there again this year and maybe even up to -17 or -18. I doubt the PGA TOUR wants it to get much better than that, so pin positions and sub air on the greens could be a factor come Sunday.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long shot picks for THE PLAYERS Championship 2021
You're never going to find me celebrating a winner at 12/1 like what we had last week as Bryson bludgeoned Bay Hill because I don't bet golf like a baby back biyatch! So, that puts the Big Balls Betting Card up 7 units since the new season started in September!
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 6 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
I'm swinging for the fences this week as everyone on the card is 50/1 or longer. No first round leader choices either as there's very little weather wave advantage. Let's get to the picks!
The trio at 50/1 just seem too scrumptious to pass up on at that number given their recent form and course fit. Casey and Fitz pound fairways and greens and Jason Day's total driving and short game can make up for his at times lackluster iron play. Day has the greatest win equity given his pedigree and past champ status here at TPC.
I'm sticking my neck out on the first timer with massive avocados between his legs...Joaquin Niemann. The kid is on a meteoric rise since last summer and he hits it long, low and straight. He can close the door late on Sunday if he's in it (as long as it doesn't go to a playoff and he's got time to grab a smoothie with his girlfriend).
I didn't want to, but I'm gonna Adam Scott myself and be a masochist this week as I watch him pound GIRs and 2 putt all week. But damnnnn is his record here as fine as that chiseled Aussie jaw of his! He leads this field in strokes gained total at Sawgrass since 2015 at 39 (and he won here in 2004)!
You need to arrive at this Pete Dye track that demands all the shots in total control of your golf ball to play well this week. Well, insert Corey Conners. He's a man that can control his golf ball with the best on the PGA TOUR. He had a chance to win late on Sunday, and he will be PGA TOUR winner once again. It could happen on any given week when his putter just gets warm.
Lanto is a major gut call for me this week. He mentioned a potential hip/thumb issue after Thursday's round at API, but he played through it just find to finish Top 25. His iron play has been stronger than a priest's pullout game. He's averaging over 2 shots gained on approach in his last 20 tournaments. Plus, little known fact...he lives in Ponte Vedra (as do many players), but he practices on the reg at Sawgrass with his good pal...Vijay Singh. Which...may be the weirdest relationship since Kim & Kanye (RIP)
My quartet of super bombs in Keegan, Kirk, Palmer and Steele are all PGA TOUR winners (Palmer at Zurich is debatable) and all arrive in very solid form. Kirk is the only one of the bunch that really doesn't hit it a long way, but his record at Sawgrass is rather tasty having gained over 16 strokes total in his last 4 attempts here, including two top 15s. I think there's win equity in this bunch. Add the win equity, experience at Sawgrass, solid incoming form and ball striking skill sets of these guys together...and I'll gladly throw a fractional unit on each as I hearken back to my opening paragraph and reference the names that have won or been within 2 measly little golf shots of winning this tournament in the last few years...
Paul Casey 50/1 PointsBet $8
Matt Fitzpatrick 50/1 DraftKings $7
Jason Day 50/1 DraftKings $8
Joaquin Niemann 66/1 PointsBet $5
Adam Scott 80/1 DraftKings $4
Corey Conners 80/1 DraftKings $5
Lanto Griffin 125/1 PointsBet $3
Keegan Bradley 150/1 PointsBet $3
Chris Kirk 150/1 PointsBet $3
Ryan Palmer 200/1 PointsBet $2
Brendan Steele 250/1 PointsBet $2