Betting Long Shots for The Rocket Mortgage Classic 2021
The Betting Approach for The Rocket Mortgage Classic 2021
After both Tour Junkies talked up Harris English on the DraftKings preview and the Betting preview for the Travelers Championship...neither of us ended up putting him on our betting card. FML [insert hand over face emoticon].
This week the PGA TOUR heads to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic for just the 3rd time. We saw Nate Lashley win the first trip to DGC after Monday qualifying. Nate's odds were either not offered by sportsbooks that week or they were in the 350 to 450/1 range. Wow. In 2020, early in the Covid restart stretch, we saw Bryson bend Donald Ross over and pound golf balls up his proverbial ass by cutting corners and wedging it from the rough. Bryson was around the same odds he is this week at 8/1.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Detroit Golf Club will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
After getting a shit ton of rain last week and early into this week, the skies will be clear for the 4 rounds of the tournament. Obviously, the course will play much softer though as a result. Despite the 7,300 yard Par 72 scorecard, the course doesn't typically play as long as 7,300 yard. But this week it might being so wet. It also means that the already high scoring event will likely see more scoring with guys able to fire at pins on these softer greens. Lashley won at -25 and Bryson at -23.
The sportsbooks have the winning score projected around -23.5 and the over may be the play there with the softer conditions. I'm looking for guys arriving with a modicum of form, high birdie or better rate, and solid SG:OTT and SG:APP trends. You better hit 75% of your GIR's at this place or you're getting lapped. From there, it all comes down to who can get hot with the putter. The putting is much harder to predict.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
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Long Shot Outright Bets for The Rocket Mortgage Classic 2021
It's #LongShotSZN batches! I'm not buying that we should just go ahead and engrave the weird, dyson fan like Rocket Mortgage trophy with Bryson's name on it for 2021. An event like this just brings in a ton of variance given the conditions and scoring.
I'm banking on a bunch of lottery ticket long shots with this card. The card is mostly made up of longer hitters that will feast on par 5s. The shorter guys on the card arrive in solid form with high OTT and GIR rankings.
The real job is keeping me from doing an extensive write up this week on each player, but it took me about 90 minutes to narrow down to this bunch after much debate. So...just trust the process people!
I'm going with some bombs for first round leader this week. I don't see much of an edge, and my rule of thumb is to stay away from FRL unless there's a clear tee time edge, but I'm on tilt. F it! These guys will all get the fresh greens and slightly lower winds. Plus, they've all flashed some form lately (Lebioda the hottest of late), and they can all get stupid hot for 1 round.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 2 first round leaders at 125/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article is now down 28 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Jason Kokrak is still my favorite in the short to mid range. I know it's crazy to think he could win again after winning just a couple of weeks ago at the Schwab, but I'm riding the hot handed bomber.
Doc Redman is a young player that's itching to close the door as he's almost done here a couple of times. His SG:OTT numbers are always solid with a good combo of distance and accuracy. Plus, the irons are back as of late after a slump.
Maverick McNealy is one I've managed to get right most weeks, despite his propensity to MC. He's got a ton of top 10s and a handful of top 5s in his young career. The kid just has the chops. It's not a matter of IF, but WHEN for Mav.
Sepp Straka eats up par 5's like Pat pounds cheetos on a Rosé induced drunken night. Trust me...it's a lot. He's got a tremendous record here in just the 2 years at DGC. He's coming off a T10 at the Travelers where the irons finally clicked. If he puts it all together one week, he can easily win a tournament at -25.
Seamus Power is fighting to get his card back on the PGA TOUR as he's about 20 or 30 spots shy on the FedEx Cup standings from the magic 125 number. He's been pretty hot lately, and he's a known scorer with an aggressive style.
Cam Davis fuqs.
Chez Reavie's play has been quite solid lately, and it's largely due to tremendous iron play. He's top 10 in this field in SG:APP if you look at a rolling average over the last 24 rounds to recent. He pounds fairways religiously. If he hangs on to the good iron play, he could close the door here.
Cameron Champ is kind of a FOMO bet. When he's on...this is the type of event he can dominate given his distance, par 5 scoring and birdie or better rate. When he's off...he's DFL. At 160/1, I'm willing to gamble.
Satoshi Kodaira has been playing quite well over the last few weeks, and while the ball striking is somewhat trending in the wrong direction, I still think he has a shot here. He's a fairway finder in solid form and a win at Harbour Town (that's right...he's won before).
Danny Lee is like Asian Cam Champ. Hits it a mile. Can go stupid low when he's cooking. Misses a shit ton of cuts. 200/1...? Sure!
Tain Lee is the Monday qualifiying bad boi that I'm fired up about! Hell, if Nate Lashley can do it, then Tain Lee's swaggy ass can do it and drip sweat drops of excellence all over the damn golf course along the way. The dude is in heat right now and I want a piece.
Kokrak 30/1 on DraftKings $10
Redman 55/1 on DraftKings $6
McNealy 66/1 on PointsBet $5
Straka 80/1 on DraftKings $4
Power 90/1 on DraftKings $4
Davis 100/1 on PointsBet $3
Reavie 100/1 on DraftKings $3
Champ 160/1 on DraftKings $3
Kodaira 160/1 on DraftKings $2
D. Lee 200/1 on PointsBet $2
T. Lee 400/1 on DraftKings $1
First Round Leader
Davis 90/1 on DraftKings $2
Lebioda 100/1 on PointsBet $2
Whaley 100/1 on DraftKings $2
Hagy 150/1 on Draftkings $1