Betting Long Shots for the RBC Heritage 2021
The Betting Approach for the RBC Heritage 2021
A lot like comparing a November Masters to an April Masters, the RBC Heritage of 2020 played in June isn't quite indicative of the way the course is setup to play in it's normal April slot.
We've spoken with a number of PGA TOUR caddies on the grounds at Harbour Town Golf Links, and the big takeaway is how firm the golf course is already running. The fairways are running out and driving the ball on the proper side of the fairway will be critical.
One can't ignore scrambling around these peckish Pete Dye green complexes as even the best ball strikers in the world will be hitting less GIRs than an average PGA TOUR event.
When it comes to betting on the RBC Heritage for 2021 or playing daily fantasy golf on DraftKings for the RBC Heritage, I'm strongly weighting driving accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. I do love a little experience around this place too as there are many nuances to Harbour Town that it takes playing a couple of times to figure out.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Harbour Town Golf Links will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
The winning score totals across most sportsbooks right now have -12.5 winning on this Par 71 layout. There does appear to potentially be a slight wave advantage as well with the AM/PM guys dealing with less wind on Friday. Thursday looks like the same conditions for all the players, and therefore won't bring any first round leader bets into the mix for yours truly.
I don't think the AM/PM advantage is strong enough as of now to make me change my strategy, but it is enough to be a tiebreaker with two players equally checking the stat boxes that I can't decide between.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for the RBC Heritage 2021
What a week we had at The Masters as Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" Betting Card (found only on Twitter & the Nut Hut) hit Hideki at 55-1! That's 9 outright winners this season! Bome! We had Leishman at T5, Reed at T8 and Si Woo at T12 on this card.
This is a much stronger field than we've seen in years past at the RBC Heritage, but I still believe a long shot can take it down as we've seen in years past. If I were advising against a shorter number, I'd go Morikawa at 20/1 on DraftKings and Fitzpatrick at 22/1 on PointsBet.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 17 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
It's a plethora of accuracy types and ball strikers on the card this week as I've thrown the strength of "hits the shit out of it" out the window. I also don't have any 1st timers at Harbour Town as I do think some knowledge around this place, the angles to attack and the places you absolutely can't miss around the greens will be crucial.
Conners, Hoffman & Kisner are my accuracy types destined to pound fairways and hit a ton of greens. Really the question with all of them is short game. Shockingly, Kisner's short game has been sus (as the kids say) and Conners putter has been warming up. This trio has ample experience around Harbour Town, and plenty of win equity.
Kevin Na is my "Risky Biscuit" play of the week as he can be perplexing sometimes as to how much he actually gives a shit. However, I'm sure this event is one he circles on the calendar every year that's really built for his strengths. He's a multiple winner on the PGA TOUR and even coming off a win this season. It's just a decent number for a guy who fits the Harbour Town mold.
Chris Kirk is doing everything well. He'll be a staple on this card for events that reward precision, short game and bermuda greens prowess. His form is hot. He's a PGA TOUR winner, and the value is there at 60/1. Auto bet.
Patton Kizzire leads off the triple digit bombs largely due to his recent form, bermuda expertise and win equity. Patton comes in striping his irons after gaining over 8 SG: Approach at Valero. His short game has been as rocksteady as anyone on the PGA TOUR over the last few years. He's got the goods for Harbour Town.
Hoge, Piercy and Hubbard are massive dart throws that I just can't pass up. Piercy is a multiple time PGA TOUR winner known for his iron play. He's not got the best record with the flatstick, but if he can hit enough of these small greens...he at least won't have to contend with lengthy putts and risk the 3 jack. Hoge just feels close. He's had some stupid good rounds in the last year on the PGA TOUR, but he just hasn't put 4 rounds together. He's 23rd in SG: Approach in this field over the last 24 rounds and the only surface he putts well on is bermuda. He's boom or bust, but this place suits him.
Finally, Mark Hubbard caught my eye early this week, and I can confirm from a birdie on the ground that he's playing well, he's confident and he loves Harbour Town. Bermuda's not his best surface, but he's such a good putter anyway and very solid around the greens. He's a short knocking, fairway finding kind of guy that just needs the irons to click.
C. Conners 30/1 PointsBet $10
C. Hoffman 40/1 PointsBet $10
K. Na 40/1 PointsBet $8
K. Kisner 55/1 DraftKings $8
C. Kirk 60/1 PointsBet $7
P. Kizzire 150/1 PointsBet $3
T. Hoge 250/1 PointsBet $1.50
S. Piercy 300/1 PointsBet $1.50
M. Hubbard 400/1 PointsBet $1