Outright Bets for The PGA Championship 2023
The Betting Approach for The PGA Championship 2023
The PGA Championship hosted at Oak Hill Country Club looks to be a real treat for golf fans. I'm starting to hear plenty from folks on the course that the setup is fair enough that it may indeed NOT just be all about the bombers. The fairways are quite firm, so the short knockers can still have mid irons in hand with good drives in the fairway. Now...that still means the guys that are long, but also straight, could have short irons into these D. Ross pushed up green complexes.
We're also hearing more and more players talk about the winning score being UNDER the Vegas line of -10.5 as the cold air and wind conditions will make Oak Hill an even tougher test. Now, if we also get the rain on Saturday to soften this place up a tad, then the bombers will get the extra bump on the weekend with cold air and wet fairways.
I'm not really seeing much of a weather advantage for the first 2 rounds, and there are already rumors about a delay for the Thursday morning guys so these "pampered fu$#s" don't have to swing in 40 degree temps.
More Intel on Oak Hill Country Club
There's no shortage of chatter on Oak Hill out there, but if you'd like a little more insight, check out The Rundown by our friend Nate Moore.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The PGA Championship 2023
I'm now at dead ass even on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
After starting the year hot, I've been cooled right back down to dead even on the season. This certainly has NOT been the year for the boys at 25/1 or longer.
I started narrowing down my players with guys who hit it long AND straight first. Then, I went to the mid iron approach buckets, and finally strokes gained around the green. As you can see with Gary Woodland on the card, I disregarded putting.
I've talked over the last few weeks about a lesson I've been learning the hard way with guys like Wyndham Clark and Jason Day winning. The lesson is to stick to the guys you really believe in, and that's what I'm doing here. I have been bullish on Finau, Homa, Fleetwood, and Fowler all season and last year. I know none of them have won a major yet, but I believe they can. I believe with Finau and Homa, it's actually a more a matter of when and not if.
Patrick Reed has also always been a guy I've bet on or played in DFS when he was on the PGA TOUR. He's just a killer when he's in contention. He's not terrible at really anything. He's elite around the greens. He's not long, but he's not short. I'm convinced all the LIV guys want to be the 1st one to snatch a major from the clutches of the contingent of PGA TOUR golden boys. But, I'm even more convinced P Reed wants it more than anyone.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!