AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2021 Betting Card
Betting the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am
The traveling PGA TOUR circus heads to Carmel, CA for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am (but sans Am's). However, the likes of Bill Murray and Carlton from Fresh Prince aren't the only notable names missing. There have been a slew of WD's and just no shows this week, led by the #1 player in the world, Dustin Johnson. The last time DJ wasn't at this event, some of ya'll weren't far removed from swimming in your daddy's nutsack.
The field is weak, and DJ's WD has thrown the betting markets into a frenzy with lines moving overnight Monday and heaps of early Monday bettors likely getting some solid value. We're getting a standard 36 hole cut after playing one round each at Pebble and Spyglass. Both of these 7K yard par 72's feature poa greens that are smaller and tough to hit than most on the PGA TOUR rotation. While on paper it doesn't look like length is really required, our friend Colt Knost, shared on the podcast this week that the course is going to play much longer due to colder temps, wet conditions and wind.
The weather at Pebble Beach historically plays a factor and can change quickly. We'll be studying the potential tee time advantages and discussing in the Nut Hut all day on Wednesday and Thursday morning. For now, there does appear to be some rain moving in Thursday to soften things up, followed by a couple of potentially windy days with gusts in the mid 20s.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Waste Management 2021 Picks
It was a tough week for DB's betting card as Matthew NeSmith at 300/1 was our best finisher (T7). However...if you're not in the Nut Hut or following on Twitter, then you're missing "Pat's Not That Anyone Really Cares Betting Card" each week where he successfully hit Brooks at 55/1 last week (and Hovland at the OHL in November). So all in all, team TJ has picked 2 winners in the first 5 events of 2021. Get amongst it (nod to Colt Knost)! The Big Balls Betting Card is now down 8 units since the beginning of this season.
I'll write up reasons and lock in bets with dollar amounts on Wednesday after tee times/weather wave stuff shakes out. But, here are the names grabbing my attention early on and lines I'm paying attention to. There has been a ton of line shake up with DJ WD'ing among others. This looks to be one of those Pebble Beach years where a long shot can come up and win. Keep in mind the defending champ Nick Taylor, won at 160/1, Ted Potter Jr. has won here at 500/1 and Vaughn Taylor won at 300/1.
***ADDED WEDNESDAY*** - So, there is for sure a weather/course advantage as of Wednesday at 3pmET. I won't go into detail here, but we'll be talking about it a lot in the Nut Hut today and tomorrow morning as well an extensive write up about it in today's Chalk Bomb email. I eliminated the 3 names due to their draw, value and overall approach to the card. You'll notice this week's card is smaller and tighter than last week. I do think there's a ton of variance at Pebble this week, but I still think conditions are going to be tougher than usual. Therefore, I give an edge to grinders, proven contenders and high performers in the wind.
I don't feel as good about Davis as I usually do, but it's a FOMO bet. He's got the worse side of the draw in my opinion and he hasn't done much at Pebble in 3 attempts.
I don't love Homa's draw either, but he loves poa and gains strokes in windy conditions. He's coming of a T14 and T10 in his last 2 tries at Pebble. He's confident and trending. He's got real win equity.
Henrik Norlander is probably my favorite bet on the board. He's got the right weather draw, he's playing great, his game suits Pebble. Don't overthink it.
I came on to Matt Jones today after seeing his weather draw is favorable, he putts well on poa and plays well in the wind. His form is trending nicely.
Alex Noren is a gut feeling at a good number. He's on the wrong side of the draw, but I like the Euro, grinder, hit it well in the wind vibe he brings.
It's finally Joel Dahmen week. We're pulling the trigger. He likes Pebble and he's swinging it well. Ignore the recent performances. He hates those courses.
Mark Hubbard got engaged on the 18th green at Pebble. He's played these 2 courses "40 to 50 times" according to an interview. He's playing well coming off a T30 at WMPO where he shot -8 in round 1. Plus he's got the good draw.
Rafa Cabrera Bello is Alex Noren, but with a good weather draw and a huge triple digit number in a shitty field.
JB Holmes loves poa like Macklemore loves carbs (see recent PGA TOUR interview with him). He gains strokes in the wind. He has five top 15s here since 2010. It's just such a big number considering this field and the importance of course knowledge/history at Pebble.
C. Davis 40/1 PointsBet $6
M. Homa 40/1 PointsBet $7
H. Norlander 50/1 PointsBet $8
M. Jones 66/1 DraftKings $6
A. Noren 66/1 DraftKings $6
J. Dahmen 90/1 DraftKings $6
M. Hubbard 100/1 PointsBet $4
R. Cabrera Bello 125/1 DraftKings $4
JB Holmes 250/1 DraftKings $3
B. Steele 60/1 PointsBet
P. Malnati 80/1 PointsBet
Chris Kirk 90/1 DraftKings