Outright Bets for The Mexico Open 2023
The Betting Approach for The Mexico Open 2023
With another star-studded elevated event on the horizon next week, we get a dud-studded field this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open 2023. If you're not betting Rahm at sub 3/1 this week (and you shouldn't), then consider parlaying his thick ass with maybe an NBA playoff game or a MLB game. I'll be tailing whatever new TJ Blog writer, Vince Margiotta (said with heavy Italian mob accent) tells me to be in his debut piece, "Let's Go Juicin" dropping later this week.
But as always here on the BBBC, we're talking potential bombs at 25/1 or longer that can show up and win this week. I am grateful that the weather looks to play an absolute zero factor with very little wind and zero rain. I can't imagine there being any sort of wave advantage (like we saw at the Masters & Heritage), and the scoring should be even lower than Rahm's -17 victory in this event's debut in 2022.
The thing about the scoring threatening the -20 range is that it adds more variance and allows the duds to steal one from the likes of Rahm & Finau up top. Everyone rips driver here, and the GIR% is higher than average. Could this simply turn into a paspalum "putting contest?" I'm excited about the possibility even knowing the books are giving Rahm or Finau implied odds to win between 35-40% (makes gagging noises).
More Intel on Vidanta Vallarta
Vidanta Vallarta isn't all that hard to figure out (despite just 1 year of history), but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important AND you can watch 11 minute course breakdown video I did. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Mexico Open 2023
I'm now up 15 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
I'm clearly relying on the middle of the odds board this week in hopes one of these boys is strong enough to fight off Rahm & Finau. Tough to find too many serious potential winners in the triple digit range outside of the ever potent Akshay (and his caked up thotty GF), or the flusher Novak with his T15 here in 2022, and coming off a T9 at Valero.
Distance and/or long iron attributes were weighted the heaviest for me, and ultimately helped me eliminate names in the mid range. I do wish Wyndham Clark were at 25/1, but to no avail. We talked about him a fair bit on today's 1st Look Live Show w/ the NUT HUT.
Hojgaard looks quite comfy on the big boy TOUR and he's less disadvantaged coming in this week on a course only hosting it's 2nd PGA TOUR event.
You'll notice a few "Team No Putt" guys on the card, with Ben An most notable. But, the putting thing doesn't scare me too much on these flat, slow paspalum greens. Typically we see bad putters handle paspalum here and other places better than they handle most weeks.
The rest of these guys will get plenty of discussion between the podcasts, articles, DISCORD, emails and more. But, if you'd like to pick my brain on these names or others, then feel free to hit me up in the DISCORD.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
