Betting Long Shots for The Memorial 2021
The Betting Approach for The Memorial 2021
Congrats to all those on "Kackrak" last week. Well, not really...screw you. We had Charlie Hoffman place, but the cold streak continues. We arrive to Muirfield Village this week for The Memorial in Columbus, Ohio fresh off a serious renovation project in the last year. I'm not going to get into all the changes here, but you can check out the Weekly Preview article link below or you can just skip all the research and know this: the changes make it more of an accuracy off the tee track and less about bomb and gouge, the greens are going to be firm AF making approach play even more important, and it's a little easier around the greens when you miss than it was previously. Oh and Jack added the Sub Air system so he can firm this biyatch up however he likes! There ya go. You're welcome.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Muirfield Village will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
The sportsbooks have the winning score at -14.5 this week. The rain Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning will soften this place up a bit for the first 2 days at least, making for better scoring conditions. Last year played about as difficult as it could have and Rahm still finished -9 for the week. I think -14.5 is a pretty solid line.
Thursday looks to have quite the dump of rain for basically the entire day as of current predictions on Wednesday afternoon as I'm writing this. I'm sure lift, clean and place will be deployed for the entire day, and there's a chance we see delays that could push round 1 tee times into Friday or just jack up the waves altogether. The rest of the week look pretty perfect and rather mild in terms of wind. As of now, I don't think it makes sense to give either tee time wave a bump given the potential for delays jacking the entire thing up.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for the Charles Schwab 2021
Historically, winners at The Memorial have mainly come from the top third of the betting board. There are a few outliers (McGirt & Lingmerth at 200 & 300/1), but given the Invitational status, strength of field and level of difficulty...it's more likely that the winner comes from the 60/1 or shorter. Therefore, going light in the triple digit range this week and picking my spots carefully.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article, alone, is now down 13 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
If Kokrak (barely Canadian) can win, then maybe fully Corey Conners can pull out his 2nd PGA TOUR victory this week to keep the Canadian Train rollin. The ball striking is just too damn good to pass up on a pure ball strikers course. Thanks for the 30/1 number, PointsBet.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (6th)
- Since his last MC in February...four top 8's & positive in SG: OTT & Approach in every event
- SG: OTT Last 24 Rounds (4th)
I've been on Matt Fitzpatrick all year like Bryson on all those high school graduates he hangs out with. Top ball striker with a world class short game that's recently added distance...sign me up!
- SG: OTT Last 24 Rounds (3rd)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Muirfield only (25th)
- SG: ATG Last 24 Rounds (32nd)
I guess if I were Bryson and had my PGA TOUR guys that I hung around all the time in terms of betting...Fitzpatrick and Keegan Bradley would be in my crew along with an Englishman just below on the card. Just bless Keegan's putter, Lord...bless it!
- Good Drives Gained Last 24 Rounds (33rd)
- SG: APP Last 24 Rounds (15th)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Muirfield only (31st)
- SG: OTT Last 24 Rounds (20th)
Charlie Hoffman is 60th in the OWGR. He's also not currently in the field for the US Open at a track he grew up playing. He needs to keep this hot streak going. He's playing some of the best golf of his career at the moment.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (2nd) + Trending better and better from 24 rounds to the last 8 or 4 rounds
- SG: OTT Last 24 Rounds (32nd)
- 47 SG: Total in his last 5 events...WHOA!
Shane Lowry is quietly having a nice 2021 with three top 10s in 8 events. He's a grindy, veteran that can stay patient and plod his way around newly renovated track in near major championship conditions. I really like the Open Champion in all formats this week.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (31st)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (35th)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Muirfield only (12th)
- SG: ATG Last 24 Rounds (15th)
Gary Woodland is a late addition for me. Maybe Pat talked me into him on the Fantasy Golf Sommelier video. I never get him right, but I try my best. Maybe you should fade him now. He's just a strong player on longer courses that require precision off the tee where you need to stay patient and grind a little bit. The form is coming around for the former US Open champion.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (25th)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (30th)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Muirfield only (17th)
- SG: OTT Last 24 Rounds (40th)
Matthew Wallace is the final member of my "Bryson crew". I've been riding for weeks, and I'm too afraid to jump off. He's as confident as ever, and the game is in great shape. He's slipped a little the last couple of weeks, but I'm going to ride it one more week at Jack's place for the battle tested Brit!
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (33rd)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (14th)
- Good Drives Gained Last 24 Rounds (10th)
- Two top 6 finishes in his last 6 starts
I'll make this quick for the longshot triple digit guys. Varner is playing well, claims to have found something with the putter since Wells Fargo, and finished runner up at Hilton Head just a few weeks ago. He battled at the Schwab after barely making the cut to a T32 after a strong weekend. He's checking a lot of boxes at the moment. Aaron Wise is just a weakness for me...despite his wretched putting. The ball striking and proven track record on tougher tracks are all there. The recent form isn't too shabby either with solid finishes at the PGA and Wells Fargo. Finally, Patton Kizzire's languid self is unavoidable coming off back to back T3's to a place where course history is somewhat diminished and hot form is mission critical. Kizzire's irons have been incredible, and they're trending. 50 rounds ago, he was ranked 56th in SG: Approach, but ranked 7th 12 rounds ago and 1st in his last 8 rounds. He's accurate enough off the tee if he's having an average week with the driver and he's been one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR since he came out.
C. Conners 30/1 PB $10
M. Fitzpatrick 33/1 PB $7
K. Bradley 50/1 PB $6
C. Hoffman 50/1 PB $6
S. Lowry 50/1 DK $6
G. Woodland 60/1 PB $5
M. Wallace 80/1 DK $4
Wise 125/1 PB $2
Varner III 150/1 PB $2
Kizzire 150/1 PB $2