Betting Long Shots for WGC Match Play & Corales 2021
The Betting Approach for the WGC Match Play & Corales Puntacana 2021
We've got 5 days of PGA TOUR action this week as the WGC Dell Match Play starts on Wednesday from Austin, CC and the Corales Puntacana starts Thursday as an opposite field event.
Given the quick start for the WGC, I'm going light on the written preview, but you can check it out on the podcast or the Nut Hut. There's a ton of variance to this golf tournament given it's format. As a result, prepare your heart and consider your bankroll exposure. I much prefer betting groups and outrights or doing brackets than I do playing DraftKings DFS.
Check back Wednesday afternoon for the Corales Puntacana picks making up the rest of the card.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long shot picks for the WGC Dell Match Play and Corales Puntacana 2021
Bome! Another winner! We're now up to 7 outright winners for the 2021 season as Matt Jones ran away with the Honda Classic at 70/1 and found himself not only on my betting card, but also on Pat's Not That Anyone Really Cares betting card.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 7 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 32 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Not quite dedicating half my units for the week to the WGC, and I'll be adding the Corales picks on Wednesday afternoon, so check back.
Cam Smith is playing quietly well at the moment and recently on the Pete Dye design at Sawgrass. He's got President's Cup experience and he's got the total package. The way Rory's been playing, I'd consider Smith the favorite in his group with Lanto and Poulter rounding out group 11.
The 2x winner, Jason Day, is a tremendous value in my mind at 50/1 given his solid form coming in. The 2016 winner at Austin CC has been gaining plenty of strokes T2G over the last few weeks, and while I don't like that he could run up against Cam Smith in the round of 16, overall I think his their bracket is more vulnerable than some.
Max Homa finally got a week off last week after a MC at The Players (his 8th event in a row). He's in tremendous form and more confident than he's ever been. If he can handle Morikawa in the group stage, I think he's got a good path to the weekend.
Bubba and Lowry at 125/1 are just pure value plays as both are Major Champions and understand how to win if given the opportunity. Watson's 21-14-4 in H2H Match Play over his career with a win here in 2018 over Kisner. Lowry's form is much better than Bubba's coming into this week with an 8th at Sawgrass and a 36th at the Honda. I think Bubba's group will be more challenging to come out of, but again...this is purely value driven at 125/1 in highly variant Match Play.
I'm going pretty hot and heavy with the hit it long and make a ton of birdies angle this week at Corales. Everyone on the card with maybe the exception of Villegas hits it a ton. Rodgers has some history here and some of these others have decent track records at places like Puerto Rico. Seiffert and Holmes are coming in with solid form (with the exception of Holmes Sunday round).
C. Smith 35/1 DraftKings $6.5
Day 50/1 DraftKings $6
Homa 90/1 DraftKings $3.5
Watson 125/1 PointsBet $2.5
Lowry 125/1 DraftKings $2.5
Rodgers 45/1 DraftKings $10
Seiffert 50/1 DraftKings $6
Holmes 80/1 DraftKings $4
Whaley 80/1 PointsBet $3
Villegas 90/1 DraftKings $3
S. Harrington 90/1 DraftKings $3