Outright Bets for The Honda Classic 2023
The Betting Approach for The Honda Classic 2023
F Jon Rahm! Gah this sucks! I bet Homa last week during Monday's 1st look Nut Hut exclusive video at 22/1 and Rahm just steals another winner from TJ enterprises. The guy is unbelievable right now.
The PGA TOUR kicks off the Florida swing this week heading to PGA National for the HONDA Classic! Sandwiched in between 4 elevated events means the field is worse than it's ever been, but ya smell that...? Smells like #LongShotSZN opportunity!
There's always wind at PGA National, and at times, it's tough to tell which direction it's coming from. The weather doesn't look too bad this year, but if the forecast holds, the PM/AM wave could see a slight wind advantage for both days to start. There's no rain in the forecast so we should get typical firm and fast PGA National.
PGA National is a pube hair away from being a major championship venue in terms of difficulty with winning scores being low teens at best and the cut line being E or in the plus range. The wind, the firm conditions, and the 15+ holes where water comes into play all can make a shot produce a birdie putt...or it could be 1 yard the wrong way and you're rolling into the water and taking penalty shots. Strap up fam...the Honda is full of surprises and volatility!
Good news though...we've had a triple digit winner 3 of the last 4 years here (and that's with much stronger fields), and TJ enterprises has nailed all 3!
More Intel on PGA National
We're all quite familiar with PGA National, but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Honda Classic 2023
I'm up 27 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
I actually surprised myself a little with this card. I thought I'd have 10 or 11 names and way more bombs! But...I love Vegas and I love the middle of the range too much to make it happen. Min Woo, Will Gordon and Chris Kirk were the last 3 names I had to scratch off the list by the way.
I will say that as I dove into the triple digit range, I didn't feel quite as comfy with the number of guys I suspected. I'm guessing that's because even in that range, you start to see the difference in field strength between this year's dog and the years previous.
I realized after I built the card that only 1 guy on the list comes from the PM/AM wave. However, I don't think it's a huge deal and it's more than likely a good tie breaker for your bets and DFS.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!