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CJ Cup 2020 Betting Card

Betting the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

Shadow Creek takes center stage this week in Las Vegas as the PGA Tour moves the CJ Cup from South Korea due to COVID. Remember, it's a 78 man field with a copious amount of sponsors exemptions getting a chance at this no cut money grab in Sin City.

I believe Shadow Creek will play rather easy with four par 5's, receptive bent grass greens, mild weather conditions and benign bermuda rough. Plus, being played at some elevation will allow plenty of the shorter hitters to contend if they can keep it coming out of the middle of the clubface for 4 days. I think the winning score will be somewhere around -18 to -20.

The most important stats for me will be SG:Approach, putting on bent grass, GIRs gained, Par 5 scoring, and SG: OTT (all coming from Fantasy National of course). With no real course history to go on, I'm weighting recent form higher than even normal since players will need to arrive in the birdie making gear. It's rather tough to contend in a birdie fest when you arrive searching for something (cough cough Brooks Koepka).

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My Betting Approach

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).

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Pay Attention!

Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.

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My CJ Cup 2020 Picks

Yet again, we had live long shots within 2 or 3 shots of the lead going into Sunday, but none could quite catch Martin Laird as Long Shot SZN™ continues with Laird sealing the deal at a whopping 250/1. The betting card is now up 20 units since the start of the new PGA Tour season in early September.

Given this limited 78 man field and a number of the top players showing up, it's not likely we see that long of a number winning this, but I do like a few at triple digits. I do see this as a birdie fest which could bring a lot of players into this tournament if they get hot. We're likely to learn a lot more about this golf course and it's set up by Wednesday night from our caddie friends, so be sure and hit us up in the Nut Hut.

Originally, I wasn't wild about Hovland having a legitimate chance of closing the door on a win at Shadow Creek. But, I'm starting to think this could be the perfect event for him to slam the door...as long as stays sober and STD free. My dawg, Harris English, has not lost form simply because he missed the cut last week. He's been as solid as anyone since the restart and now we can bet him at a longer number coming off the MC. I love the form Louie Oosthuizen is riding, and he's always a box checking fool in terms of ball striking.

I think Niemann's game has turned a corner since the restart. I believe he's ready to win more golf tournaments, and his ball striking ability gives him the tools to do so. Noren is typically Pat's guy, but he tends to show up in big events. He's a fantastic putter and I see this event meaning more to him than some of the shorter studs at the top of the betting board. Big bombing bent grass Bubba at 70/1 is just too juicy to pass up given his win equity. I see Shadow Creek as a course that he may really enjoy given it's subtle nods to Augusta. I bet his number gets shorter by tomorrow.

As long as Si Woo Kim is in good form and longer than 60 or 70/1, I'll bet him. He's got too much fire power and win equity. His aggressive nature will always translate in a birdie fest like I anticipate this will be. Hughes and Conners are my ball striking, long hitting Canadian friends that have won on the PGA Tour and have flashed some form of late. Hughes is a stud on par 5s and the rare unicorn combination of long off the tee and deadly with the flatstick. Finally, Keegan is my "let me burn $4 this week" punt because 150/1 is too long for a major winner that nearly won a couple of weeks ago in a field where only about 65 names have a legitimate shot at winning. It's too much value. Be warned though...he'll break your heart.

***ADDED WEDNESDAY - Given the fact there's not really a tee time wave advantage this week with the limited field, I'm putting all of my units towards the outright market for this week's betting card. No additional names were added today to the card, but I did reluctantly take Conners and Bradley off the card. If you have a little more to spend, I still like a quarter unit or so on those guys given the win equity and value in a short field.

Outright Winner

Hovland 40/1 on DK Sportsbook $10

English 45/1 on DK Sportsbook $7

Oosthuizen 45/1 on DK Sportsbook $8

Niemann 55/1 on DK Sportsbook $5

Noren 70/1 on PointsBet $5

Watson 70/1 on PointsBet $5

Si Woo Kim 90/1 on PointsBet $5

Hughes 125/1 on DK Sportsbook $5

Conners 125/1 on DK Sportsbook

Bradley 150/1 on PointsBet

First Round Leader