Bermuda Championship 2020 Betting Card
Betting the Bermuda Championship
Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama...lame...I know. The PGA TOUR heads to Port Royal Golf Club this week for the 2nd edition of the Bermuda Championship where Brendan Todd cucked a 100/1 Harry Higgs ticket for me last year when he fired a course record tying 62 on Sunday. Port Royal is easily the shortest track on the tour and it's only real defense against even this weak ass field is the wind. The par 71 plays just over 6800 yards and features...duh...Bermuda grass all the way.
Any type of player can win here given distance is really neutralized. Wedge play, approach play and putting on Bermuda will be the key stats for me this week along with form. Vegas has the winning score over/under at 17.5 for now, so you better come in ready to go low and make some birdies.
I believe Long Shot SZN™ gets back on the tracks this week after Cantlay won last week. Look, there are a few players in this field that are clearly better than the rest, but the margin is rather small. Be sure and check back on Wednesday as there may be a weather/tee time advantage due to wind conditions. That may lead to some first round leader plays and could influence even outright selections if the advantage looks clearly in favor of a certain wave.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Bermuda 2020 Picks
Lanto, Munoz and Henley were all live for us going into Sunday at the Zozo, but couldn't keep up with the big names and Cantlay. This betting card is now up 10 units on the season strictly betting long outrights, and Pat's Not That Anybody Really Cares Betting Card (live on Twitter each week) is up like 50 units. #Bome
***ADDED WEDNESDAY*** - Scratched Dufner, Swafford, Baker and Reeves off the card. I added Norlander after seeing how windy Friday and Saturday are looking. Norlander plays out of my home club in Augusta and the dude is a premier ball striker on the PGA TOUR even among the best. That will pay off nicely in windy conditions. He just needs the putter to get going on these slow, manageable greens. I also added Rob Oppenheim as a FRL bet. I like a slight advantage to the morning wave on Thursday as the steady wind throughout the day will dry things out in the afternoon. Rob and Hank tee off around 9am and both played nicely here last year. Rob arrives in rather solid form having four top 40s in his last 5 events with a T15 at Wyndham. Lebioda shot a 63 here last year on his way to a 3rd place finish. It's a subtle advantage Thursday morning, so if you want to fade a first round leader bet altogether, I wouldn't be mad at you.
Euro sensation Rasmus Hojgaaaaaaard is barely old enough to pop a chub, but he can golf his ball. He's an unknown commodity to the PGA TOUR, but he checks the boxes on the European Tour as he stands 12th in SG:APP, 4th in SG:OTT, 20th in Birdie Avg and 25th in Eagle Avg this season.
Wesley Bryan is a past PGA TOUR winner with exceptional wedge and putting prowess. Combine that with his accuracy off the tee and his limited starts coming off a medical, and you've got a good recipe here at Port Royal.
Sepp Straka has a ton of firepower, and while his length will be negated some at Port Royal, I still like the win equity you get with a guy like Sepp. He's a good wedge player arriving in good form and likely to feast on these gettable par 5s and short par 4s. Remember, Scottie Scheffler also holds the course record here with B. Todd. Sepp's game shows plenty of likeness to that of Mr. Scheffler.
Duff Daddy just strikes his ball, and I like that in potentially windy conditions. He's a tee to green stud that could pull out his first victory in quite some time if he can just have one week where the putter is better than average.
Max Homa allegedly just set the course record over the weekend at a course in Ponte Vedra, Florida. While that may or may not be true, this is still a big number for a guy like Max that has some strong showings in much harder events despite some more recent struggles.
Lebioda finished 3rd here in 2019 and he arrives in trending form having made four of his last five cuts. He checks the box in SG:APP and GIR over the last 24 rounds and he's been working very hard on his putting we hear.
Swafford is just a good value for a guy that won on a very similar coastal track just a few weeks ago. I'm not sure he'll make the final card if I end up going with some first round leaders, but he catches my eye at 125/1.
Teater is a guy I'm NEVER on, but I like his T11 finish here in 2019. He's an exceptional wedge player that can't putt. It's a big number for a guy that had some magic here a year ago and only needs a few more putts to drop to go low.
Chris Baker (of Indiana) is an accurate, ball striking, fairway findin son of a gun that also can't putt. I love the super long numbers on guys that are consistent ball strikers just looking for some flatstick magic. These aren't difficult greens and the slow speeds should help the garbage putters like Chris.
Seth Reeves is my Korn Ferry long shot that has a win and a T3 in the month of August. The guy has some game. He's got a decent wedge game and he's one of the longest players on my betting card. He's gone from 400/1 to 250/1 in a matter of hours. I'm not sure why...but I may still bite.
Norlander at 40/1 on PointsBet $10
Hojgaard at 45/1 on DK Sportsbook $8
Bryan at 50/1 on PointsBet $6
Straka at 50/1 on PointsBet $6
Dufner at 80/1 on PointsBet
Homa at 90/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Lebioda at 100/1 on DK Sportsbook $4
Swafford at 125/1 on DK Sportsbook
Teater at 150/1 on PointsBet $3
Baker at 200/1 on PointsBet
Reeves at 250/1 on PointsBet
First Round Leader
Lebioda at 80/1 on PointsBet $4
Oppenheim at 80/1 on DK Sportsbook $4