Betting Long Shots for the Arnold Palmer Inv 2021
Betting the Arnold Palmer Invitational
We're all set to honor the King this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Bay Hill in Orlando, Fl for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fun fact, I named my new French Bulldog "Arnie" after Mr. Palmer. A little over 120 players will get the task of conquering this traditional Florida track and join quite the list of recent winners at Bay Hill
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Bay Hill will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
As of Wednesday around noon, the weather in Orlando looks a little interesting. The temperatures all week look a little on the cool side as the morning temps are in the 50s and the high all week is 75. Thursday and Friday look pretty mild with winds peaking at around 10mph, but the weekend looks questionable. Saturday looks wet and windy most of the day with the rain gone by Sunday, but the wind whipping over 20mph. The course hasn't seen much rain over the last couple weeks and should play firm until whatever rain hits on Saturday. But for those making the weekend, wind will certainly play a factor and ball striking will be tested.
The winning score across the sportsbooks is around -12.5. Obviously, that's considerably better scoring than last year when the wind was whipping all four days and -4 won. All in all, I think this week plays tough (by PGA TOUR standards), but not as difficult as last year. I could easily see the 36 hole leader getting to -9 or -10.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long shot picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021
Well, we had Brooks Koepka on the card last week finishing T2, but it felt like he was miles behind Morikawa. That puts the Big Balls Betting Card up 12 units since the new season started in September!
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 6 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
I'm on the lookout for the grinders again this week. Bay Hill can be a frustrating course without the elements playing a factor. The bunkering, water, super thick rough, and grainy bermuda greens can give players fits. But when you factor in the wind and rain over the weekend, Bay Hill will require patience and precision. I want guys that can keep their ball under control, hit a bunch of greens, putt well on bermuda and have a decent record at Bay Hill.
Did you know that every winner since 2010 at Bay Hill has played the year before and made the cut? Yea...no cap (as the kids say). Ok, let's get to the picks!
PointsBet odds are WAYYYY longer once you get past the 60/1 range this week over DK Sportsbook. Let this be a reminder that it's good to have a few options when it comes to betting. You obviously want the longest odds on your selections and it's crazy how the books can vary week to week on value.
I'm going with a "Studs & Duds" approach on the card this week as much as I can given I'm not allowing myself to bet on anyone under 25/1. It's killing me not to have Fitzpatrick on the card, but he's 22/1 on both sites. Everyone on my card has won a PGA TOUR event before with the exception of Norlander and An.
The ball striking trio of non Americans (including 2 Bay HIll winners) start the card as Casey, Molinari and Leishman have the chops to grind it out this week and all arrive with solid form.
Kisner surprised me with his play last week at Concession. He gains a ton of fairways and he's one of the best bermuda scramblers and putters on the PGA TOUR. Kiz also loves courses where -20 doesn't win. He's got a mixed bag at API with a runner up and a few MC's, but he's always gained strokes OTT.
The rest of the bunch consists of tremendous iron players and ball strikers like Griffin, Norlander and Ben An. Kirk and Kizzire are both playing very well, thrive on bermuda and find plenty of fairways. Matt Jones is putting together a string of solid golf and the Aussie can gain strokes in the wind. His best putting surface is bermuda by miles. This is his 8th start at Bay Hill with his best finish being T3 in 2015.
Casey 28/1 PointsBet $10
Molinari 30/1 DK Sportsbook $10
Leishman 50/1 PointsBet $7
Kisner 80/1 PointsBet $5
Griffin 125/1 PointsBet $4
Norlander 125/1 PointsBet $3
Jones 150/1 PointsBet $2
Ben An 150/1 PointsBet $2
Kirk 150/1 PointsBet $3
Steele 200/1 PointsBet $2
Kizzire 300/1 PointsBet $2