The American Express 2021 Betting Card

I'm currently down 20 units strictly betting long shot outrights and first round leaders. Be sure and check back Wednesday afternoon for the final card. I usually eliminate some plays, add some others and sometimes sprinkle in some first round leader bets if I see an edge. Ok...let's let em hang!

***ADDED WEDNESDAY - Due to the higher number of tickets I want in my hand this week, I had to scratch out 4 names and add none. This tournament is just so unpredictable...so I want more outrights than usual and I want the long shots. My allocations are a little weird based on the odds, but I just like some guys better than others regardless of their odds. Also, the weather has eased up a bit. Today isn't getting the rain that was projected yesterday and there doesn't look to be any advantage to either wave on Thursday or Friday. For that reason, I'm out on first round leader bets this week. No edge. More outrights.

This is going to be an odd week as I'm really not touching the shorter and even mid range of the odds given the volatility of this event. I'm going to have a ton of names on the card with my units spread pretty thin across the board. I'm also not interested in making this a 4,000 word article, so forgive the brevity with each name. Also, some of the names we mentioned on the podcast last night have already seen their odds shortened drastically in the last 12 hours (ie Burns and Redman). I believe a lot of these guys in the triple digits will be shortened by the time they tee off, so act fast.

Listen to the podcast to hear me in depth on names like Harman, Long, Davis, Straka, Redman, Streelman, Laird, Piercy and Stallings. I believe all are good values still at their number. Straka, Redman, Streelman, and Piercy are my favorite values and those I see getting shorter numbers at other books.

I didn't say much about Si Woo, CH3, ZJ, Hahn, List, & Hubbard on the podcast. Si Woo is just so damn hard for me to avoid when he's above 50/1, especially on a Pete Dye track that should be a birdie fest. He checks the box in SG: Ball Striking (OTT + APP) over 4 rounds at the Stadium Course and he's coming off a T25 at The Sony.

CH3 missed his first cut in over a decade here last year, but he arrives this week in very solid form thanks to fantastic ball striking. He loves this place and his form is trending. I know he hasn't won very much over his lengthy career, but if Landry and Long can win here...CH3 can surprise us.

I like ZJ given this course doesn't have to be overpowered and the potential of lift, clean and place with wet conditions. ZJ's got some solid stats at the Stadium Course and he just finished 6th at the RSM back in the fall. He's got win equity if he finds himself in contention.

Hahn & List are 2 guys that tend to play well on the West Coast and both have played the Stadium Course very well in the last few years. List is 8th in SG: Ball Striking and Hahn 27th at the Stadium Course alone in recent years. I like Hahn more given his form, but both have value with those large numbers.

Hubbard is my final long shot look. He's got 5 rounds at the Stadium Course in the last few years and he's been pretty solid, ranking in the top 40% of this field in SG: Ball Striking. This is his 5th appearance here and he's only missed 1 cut, including a T28 and T20. After finishing T32 last week, Hubbard could hoist the trophy as another unlikely winner at 150/1.