The Power Fade: 2024 Mexico Open
The Approach to fading big names for the 2024 Mexico Open
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
The PGA TOUR leaves the bright lights of Hollywood for Mexico this week with a field that is classed by our defending champion Tony Finau. With the high level championship golf we have seen on the west coast, many this week are taking a break as we head to the Florida swing next week.
Vidanta Vallarta plays as a Par 71 tipping out at roughly 7450 yards. We return to 4 Par 5's this week but we also get the rare 5 Par 3's. The weather and wind are this course's only defense. We are playing resort course golf this week with slow Paspalum greens and target golf should the weather cooperate. We should see a winning score hanging around -22 to -25 this week.
As we head South of the Border, let's see who is no bueno this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Eric Van Rooyen ($9,500)
Our first Power Fade of the week is a man who actually won the Mexico event in the fall. Eric Van Rooyen, ol EVR, a player who drives us insane each week is our first Power Fade at $9,500 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
EVR will certainly be popping in the models this week. When it comes to a birdie fest like we will see this week, EVR can be a birdie machine but he also has the ability to put up some big numbers.
When we narrow down the statistics on EVR (Last 8 Rounds) we start to see some concerns that merit a fade.
Van Rooyen's Off the Tee Game can be quite troublesome as he ranks 59th in Good Drives. Additionally, these struggles lend itself to EVR's issues with Bogey Avoidance. With a rank of 51st in Bogey Avoidance in this field, we have a great opportunity to pivot away from someone who has been know to make big numbers in a hurry. 11 holes feature water this week and EVR has been known to be quite comfortable getting wet.
With 5 Par 3's this week, scoring on the short holes will be crucial. EVR struggles on the Par 3's with a ranking of 67th. Furthermore, we will see Par 4's in the 450-500 yard range and EVR isn't much better in this stat category. Coming in ranked 52nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards leaves quite a bit to be desired for a player at $9,500 on DraftKings.
I just see EVR as way too volatile at this price, and we can pivot both up and down the board to safer options such as Taylor Pendrith.
Jake Knapp ($8,700)
Our second Power Fade of the week is the new darling of the PGA Tour, especially our very own Pat Perry (Sorry Pat lol...) Jake Knapp comes in as our second Power Fade of the week at $8,500 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Jake Knapp has certainly caught the eye of many with his great ball speed and nice finishes in some big boy events. Knapp was a star on the Korn Ferry Tour undoubtably, however there are still some holes in his statistical profile that lend a fade on someone potentially being a chalk play.
When it comes to Strokes Gained Total in this field, Knapp comes in showing some issues ranking 73rd. Surprisingly, Knapp also comes in sporting a 59th rankning in proximity from 175-200 yards. Good mid to long iron play will be crucial this week, and while Knapp can certainly crush the ball, we still need to get it in the hole.
These stats lend itself to support the notion that if Knapp is off his game this week, he may struggle to make birdies, which will leave Knapp with some time to take a nap over the weekend.
Once again, much like EVR, Knapp struggles with Par 3 scoring. Ranking 83rd for Par 3 scoring this week is concerning. Add in a high variance situation with a birdie fest and I think we can pivot away from the shiny new toy toward some better options such as Mark Hubbard.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! We will be returning to you next week as we head to Florida for a familiar course with a new name! We head to PGA National and the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches (FKA The Honda Classic).
Follow me on X @AllenKlutts and on Instagram @Allen_Klutts906
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"With a rank of 51st in Bogey Avoidance in this field, we have a great opportunity to pivot away from someone who has been know to make big numbers in a hurry. 11 holes feature water this week, EVR has been known to be quite comfortable getting wet."
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.