I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don’t get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I’ve felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit…and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I’m going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I’m risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I’m actually betting these guys. I’m taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However…I will say…I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.
Every week, I’ll publish this with Outright bets that I’m watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I’m eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn’t quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
Through 27 Weeks: Spent $1350 / Won $1600 / Up 25 units
Well our FRL bets last week sucked pure, unadulterated ass. I truly thought Finau was finally going to win one when he was on the front 9 Sunday at the PGA Championship, but nope. I didn’t write up Morikawa, but I did throw 4 units on him a few weeks ago at 30/1. But, that doesn’t count for this article! Ok…moving on to the Wyndham Championship from Sedgefield CC in lovely Greensboro, NC.
This week is going to be wetter than Cardi B’s p—– nevermind. It’s just going to be rather rainy and soft. That will lead to more fairways hit, more greens hit and more birdies. I always say this, but tournament where the winning scores get up in the 20’s opens this up for literally anyone in the field to win. As I mentioned on the podcast, 3 of the last 5 winners here were all triple digit long shots in the outright market. I’m targeting in form players that have had some low rounds and strong showings in recent events. I like aggressive types. Don’t Bill Haas (or Gary Woodland last week) your way around this track looking for par. Par is for bitches at Sedgefield! Iron play and in form birdie makers lead the way in my selections. And, any bermuda loving, southern boy that fancies himself golf in the Southeast will be top of mind. Let’s put a little south in your mouth folks!
First Round Leader
*Check back on Wednesday afternoon / evening
Conners (55/1), Henley (55/1), Redman (70/1), Varner (70/1), List (90/1), Straka (100/1), Burns (125/1), Gordon (135/1), Mitchell (135/1), Armour (175/1), Baker (250/1), Seiffert (250/1)
Conners and Henley have hit the ball better from tee to green than arguably anyone on the PGA Tour since the restart. Both can run away with the win at Sedgefield CC if they can drop a few extra putts this week. I’ll have virtually zero Henley in DFS since he’s looking to be super chalk, so I’ll hedge with an outright. Redman checks the box in being young, aggressive, and having a solid mustache. The Clemson standout has proven he’s got the chops to go low at any given PGA Tour event. List is playing extremely well right now, and he’s making very few mistakes. His length off the tee will come in handy given how soft the course should be, and he’s only a few weeks removed from winning on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Ol’ Sepp Straka (see drunk Sepp & drunk TJ’s above) is basically a young, Austrian Luke List, butcept his ass can putt a little. Burns, Gordon and Keith Mitchell all hit it plenty long, hit tons of greens in regulation, and can go unconsciously low at any given moment. The win equity in this threesome is as strong as plenty of guys shorter than them in the odds market. Armour is so short off the tee, he can hear his ball land. However, it almost always lands in the fairway. He stays out of trouble and he’s flashed some form since the restart. Chris Baker is a European Tour Ryan Moore. He’s extremely accurate tee to green, doesn’t hit it very far, but he’s a hot putter week away from being in contention at 250/1! Finally, Chase Seiffert at 250/1 is a really stupid number for an event that produces a ton of first time winners (see Reed, Webb, Poston, Si Woo, etc). Chase has been ball striking quite well since the restart and fits the aggressive, young flag firer profile.