Shriners Hospitals Open 2020
The trophy for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin should be a giant stripper ass in a thong with a twenty hanging out of it...However, I guess that's not exactly child friendly for the men in the funny hats. Anyway, let's get into this for this week's PGA Tour stop. We're going to look at 2 extremely popular names across DFS contests and why you could justify staying away. More importantly, I'm going to tell you about 2 other players with as much upside at significantly less projected ownership. Ownership leverage and equal or greater upside from the players we're pivoting away from is the name of the game every week for the Pivot Point article.
As I suspected on the podcast, all of the ownership projections are proving that studs & duds lineup construction is the most popular play in DraftKings this week. Honestly, it's really hard for me to find a reason to fade a lot of the names up top...so I get it. If you're playing in MME tournaments, I would lean to 20 or 30% of my lineups starting from maybe Sungjae down to have a balanced build.
Bryson Dechambeau (26%) / Webb Simpson (20%)
Bryson is the probably the easiest fade for me given he's projected to be the highest owned player in the field and he's the most expensive. That's a recipe for a GPP fade. Does he have the highest win equity of anyone in the field? Yes. Since the restart, he's had 6 Top 10s and 5 finishes outside the top 20. The percentage play 100 times out of 100 is to fade the most expensive, most popular, public favorite in large DFS tournaments.
I'd much prefer Webb Simpson, who still isn't going under the radar by any means, but nobody above Sungjae Im is going under the radar according to ownership projections. Over his last 5 attempts at TPC Summerlin, Webb is trending the right direction going from T56 to T7 last year and finishing better than the year before with each start. He's finished in the Top 12 in 7 out of 10 events since the restart, and he comes with an $800 savings over Bryson. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks higher than Bryson in SG:APP, GIR Gained, and Fairways gained according to Fantasy National.
Patrick Cantlay (16%) / Louie Oosthuizen (10%)
Given Cantlay's tremendous success and noted love for TPC Summerlin, the only reason one can find to avoid Cantlay this week is the inconsistency in recent form. He hasn't been the consistent ball striker and finisher after COVID that he was prior. He's had ONE top 10 and 3 top 15s in eight starts since June. The issue has been less consistent iron play and putting for Cantlay. However, over the last 24 rounds, he also ranks 90th in this field in Fairways Gained.
Aside from the $1600 savings and 6% projected ownership savings, Louie has also been playing exceptional since the restart having gained 31 Strokes Total in his last five starts! That's YUGE! There's not a ball striking category he doesn't check. The biggest question mark for Louie will be putting on bentgrass as he historically doesn't pop as much on that surface. It's not terrible by any means, and it hasn't seemed to bother him at Augusta National in years past. With the balanced build being the contrarian DFS strategy of the week, I would consider making sweet Louie your anchor.