Safeway Open 2020 Betting Card
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
Through 0 Weeks: Spent $0 / Won $0 / Up 0 units
I am PUMPED for a full field event with no clear upper tier eating up implied odds to win. This is a great week for us big balled gentlemen to really make a splash. Cam Champ won this event last year at 150/1. Since it's been played at Silverado's North Course, we've had two 150/1 winners, the shortest number was Steele's 2nd win at 33/1 and the average has been 83/1. SIGN. ME. UP!
As noted on the podcast, I expect the course to play very similar to last year. It's been drier than Pat's Dry Spell of 2016 in Napa, and there's not a drop of rain in the forecast. The course will see run out in the fairways, but the rough hasn't historically been very bad. I think bombers and more average hitters can compete here with the firm conditions, but the par 5's are something I'm keying in on. With winning scores likely between -16 and -20, I want guys that can feast on the par 5s. Now that we're in Cali, it will also behoove us to take note of those players that putt well on Poa green surfaces. But more importantly, just give me the long numbers and guys with legit win equity in such a shit PGA Tour field.
Davis (45/1)_DK_$10, List (60/1)_PointsBet_$7, Tringale (60/1)_DK_$8, Gordon (70/1)_DK_$5, Holmes (90/1)_PointsBet_$5, Baker (150/1)_PointsBet_$3, Power (125/1)_PointsBet_$3, Bryan (100/1), Hubbard (50/1), Rodgers (90/1)
First Round Leader
Power (90/1)_$3, Straka (90/1)_$3, Murray (125/1)_$3
I'm obsessed with Aussie Cam Davis this week. I've already bet him on DK and he's dropped to 30/1 on PointsBet. List on the other hand is 15 points longer on PointsBet versus DK, and I love the win equity from both of these long hitters. Luke has found himself right in the thick of it a number of times late on Sunday in his PGA Tour career. He'll win eventually. Mark Hubbard has really had an impressive season and seems to have found a bucket of confidence. As one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, he's got win equity in this weak field if the putter gets blazing hot. Tringale has all the ball striking prowess and recent form. Gordon is American Cam Davis. He's top 5 in distance on the PGA Tour and has already proven he can top 10 in a couple of much stronger PGA Tour events. He's a big time player with big time abilities. Merritt is popping for me, but frankly, I'm never a huge fan of the guy. We'll see how that shakes out tomorrow.
Getting into the longer numbers, JB Holmes is already locked in for me as well. I'm trusting that he's healthy, and there's arguably not another player at 90/1 or longer with his level of win equity. Rodgers feels similar to Merritt for me...I rarely get him right, but this feels like an event he would show up and show out. Wesley Bryan has made the most of his limited starts on the PGA Tour and the former winner has the all around game to win at Silverado. Word on the street is he's added some distance too. Chris Baker is Euro Wes Bryan. He's quite the accurate, ball striker with some solid performances in his rookie season on the PGA Tour. Finally, I'm always a sucker for Seamus Power. The big hitting ladies man (so we hear) can take advantage of par 5s and historically plays well in trash fields.
*ADDED Wednesday - I hope you jumped on the JB Holmes numbers early like I did. They've dropped significantly. I got him late Tuesday night at 100/1 for FRL, but on Wednesday he's down to 66/1. I'm not going to recommend the FRL bet at that number, but you can see I did add Power, Straka and Murray at long numbers. All 3 players go off in the AM wave on Thursday. With basically the exact same weather in 2019 as we're shaping up to get this year, the AM wave had a .5 shot advantage due to the greens being more receptive. All 3 of these players hit it a mile and can take advantage of these par 5s to get out to a great start in round 1. Murray is obviously a head case and WD risk, but his raw ability is good enough to go low here for one round. This is the only spot I'll have Straka exposure this week and primarily due to his distance and par 5 scoring. Straka has had a number of low rounds this year on the PGA Tour, but he struggles to put 4 together.
In terms of the outrights, I dropped Hubbard, Rodgers and Bryan from my card, but I want exposure to more players this week given the volatility of this field. This card has more names on it than usual with only a $50 budget, but I love it! Good luck everyone! Let me know on social if any of these hit for ya!
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