RSM Classic 2020 Betting Card
Betting The RSM Classic
Ahhh...the Masters hangover brought to you by the RSM Classic from lovely Sea Island resort and rich people haven. As the PGA TOUR (and it's shitty app) take center stage this week off the gold coast of Georgia, we see a fresh batch of first timers arrive to the RSM given the short drive from Augusta. The stronger field may in fact suppress Long Shot SZN™ yet again this week, but we've seen plenty of bombs win here in past years.
Tyler Duncan...yes...Tyler Duncan won this event last year at 200/1, Austin Cook broke through with his first PGA TOUR win a couple years ago, and the average winner over the last 10 years has been at 100/1.
The Seaside and Plantation courses both require precision iron play and excellent understanding and execution playing on grainy bermuda surfaces. Pat and I were credentialed media at this event in 2019, and saw first hand how this bermuda looked on and around the greens. I prefer players this week that would seem comfortable and familiar with southern AF bermuda. Also, given the forecast as of Tuesday morning shaping up to be rather windy, I'm leaning ball strikers hitting it solid recently with their irons and wedges.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My RSM Classic 2020 Picks
Welp, when the betting favorite wins, I will lose money 100% of the time. Life's too short to bet favorites people! I am happy to see DJ get the green jacket though for real. I believe DJ is probably one of the more liked and respected guys among his peers out on the PGA TOUR. So, despite my cracking on him through the years for being barely smart enough to not shit his pants...I'm happy to see him win.
Moving on to the RSM Classic...I'm awaiting tee times and weather confirmation on Wednesday before locking in too many bets. I do think the wind will play a legitimate factor as of now, and I want to take advantage with outrights and likely first round leader bets. I'm now 5 units down since the season restarted back in early September. I'm strictly putting long outrights and first round leaders on this card, and Pat's Not That Anybody Really Cares Betting Card (live on Twitter each week) is up like 40 units. #Bome
***ADDED WEDNESDAY - Removed Norlander as he's WD due to COVID. Removed Tringale. Removed Henley to allow room for Lowry and Harman additions. Lowry has grown on me over the last 48 hours despite having never played here. I love where his iron play has been lately, his form has been very solid, and he's proven to be a great wind player. 35/1 is too long for a guy like that with multiple victories worldwide. I added Brian Harman (aka Cockbite) because I love the value at 45/1 for a guy with a great record here, great current form, and plenty of Georgia boy love at Sea Island.
A trio of Georgia Bulldogs on the card being Henley, Kisner and Thompson sends me from 6 to midnight in my middle faster than you can say "Gator Hater." Henley has three top 10s in the last five years here and his form coming in is better than it's ever been. He's arguably the best iron player in the field since the restart. As a former winner here with a ton of experience at Sea Island, Kisner is a no brainer at a decent number. And Davis Thompson makes these courses his bitch on a regular basis whether in the Jones Cup amateur event, the SEC Championship, or just the weekends whilst taking money of Sea Island Mafia members. He's half the number on a lot of other books. Get the 400/1 while you still can.
The Postman's MC at The Masters isn't something that should throw you off. He's been striking it solid and he's one of the best chippers and putters in the field. This is a total home game for him as he lives on Sea Island. McCarthy has two top 6 finishes in his last four events along with a T8 here last year. He's accurate AF and the second best putter on bermuda over the last 50 rounds in this field. 85/1 is way to large for Denny.
My long hitting Aussie man crush, Cam Davis, checks in at 125/1 despite gaining around 23 strokes total in his last 7 events. He sucked in Houston, but his ceiling is too high to pass up. Tringale is the forgotten tall, dark, handsome and hairy ball striker so far this week. He's played well here over his career and his iron play has been very solid the last 24 rounds. Hahn's three top 10s in four starts and win equity stand out to me at 150/1. He's 15th in GIR gained, 14th in SG: Par 4 scoring and 9th in Driving Accuracy over the last 24 rounds. Finally, Hank Lebioda is just too long at 300/1 given his record here at the Jones Cup and 2 strong showings at the RSM over the last 2 years. He's coming off a T16 at Bermuda where his iron play has been very solid. Hank is very familiar with Sea Island and worth a stab at such a big number.
Lowry at 35/1 on DK Sportsbook $10
Harman at 45/1 on DK Sportsbook $9
Kisner at 45/1 on DK Sportsbook $10
Poston at 80/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
McCarthy at 85/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Davis at 125/1 on DK Sportsbook $3
Hahn at 150/1 on DK Sportsbook $4
Lebioda at 300/1 on DK Sportsbook $2
D. Thompson at 400/1 on DK Sportsbook $2
Henley at 28/1 on DK Sportsbook
Tringale at 125/1 on PointsBet
Norlander at 100/1 on DK Sportsbook