You guys and gals probably know by now that I love some long shots for FRL bets on the PGA Tour. Anyone can have a hot day on the golf course and go low. We see it all the time. Plus, the books don’t price in advantages like tee time draw, weather, course conditions in the morning versus the afternoon, or temperature and how it affects the ball as much they probably should. I’m not saying that bookmakers don’t consider those factors at all, but I believe they don’t put as much into making the lines as they do outright options or bets over the course of 4 rounds of competition.
Therefore, I like chasing the long shot guys on Thursdays. It’s a great opening day PGA Tour sweat. Plus, if you hit, you’ve got house money to play with for the rest of the tournament.
Let’s cut to the chase and I’ll tell you what I like about today’s opening round in Honolulu for the Sony Open. There is 0% chance of rain. Wind will be steady all day from about 6-9mph with no big gusts. That’s a pretty mild day, and won’t really impact the golfers at all from a betting perspective. Typically, we see a lot of FRL’s come from the morning wave on the PGA Tour because wind usually picks up as the day progresses, and the guys out early get the purest putting surfaces of the day when they haven’t been pelted with incoming piss missiles or walked all over.
But, I like a slightly different approach this morning for the Sony Open because of 1 factor (since wind and rain won’t play a role at all today)…Temperature! The golf ball flies further in warmer air than colder air. That’s a fact. Look it up or ask Bryson. Not that Waialae really requires a ton of distance, but every little bit helps in this game where 1 break or 1 disaster can affect your round immensely. The guys going off from 7am – 9am will get started in temps around 70º – 75º. The temp will be climbing all morning up until noon when the high reaches around 84º. The 10º difference could add another few yards of carry to every shot throughout a round and that’s enough to provide an edge.
I’ve got 4 FRL plays for today as a result. I want long shots, so remember…I’m more likely to only hit a handful of these throughout the year. But, when you do…you hit big. It’s like a poor man’s parlay bet. I’m picking these guys based on the tee time and weather factor I just cited above. I’m picking them obviously due to their odds on MyBookie. And, I’m picking them because they’ve proven they can go low at Waialae, or they’ve just proven they can go low absolutely anywhere. I love aggressive players for FRL bets, and I’ve found a couple here at the Sony Open.
Chez Reavie (66/1) – The Chezticle has a tremendous record here. He’s chosen to start his season at Waialae the last 4 years, and he’s gained 23 strokes on the field in that span. He tees off at noon. Chez likey the track!
James Hahn (80/1) – James found himself in the playoff here last year that lasted 6 holes when he lost to Kizzire. He likes the track. He loves the West Coast swing! He’s gained 26 strokes here in the last 5 years. Now, he tees off at 7am. That goes against what I said earlier, but I liked the 80/1 number and his performance last season. He’s the first group off, so while he won’t have the higher temp to his advantage, he will have a fresh set of 18 greens awaiting his arrival.
Keith Mitchell (100/1) – Keith tees off at 11:50am. Keith played here last year for the first time and finished T25, which is pretty rare for a first timer. Keith just runs hot. He makes a ton of birdies and eagles, and he plays aggressively. As long as he’s 80/1 or longer for FRL’s this season, he’s in play.
Cam Davis (110/1) – Cam is a big hitting Web.com graduate that tees off at 8:40am today. He was 2nd on the Web.com Tour last season in Birdie Average and 7th in Greens in Regulation. He’s a lot like Keith Mitchell. Runs hot. Stays aggressive. Let’s Go!
– DB (SEE YA!)