Northern Trust 2020
In this week's Pivot Point for the Northern Trust 2020 from TPC Boston, we're taking a look at 3 players projected to be high owned across DraftKings GPPs and tournament that I think we can make a solid case for fading. The Pivot Point will vary week to week based on the "chalky" players, the field, and other factors.
Given the incredible strength of this 124 man field for the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, ownership is rather spread out and not super concentrated. It's hard to find guys, especially in the top tier, that I hate. That just goes back to the strength of field, right. However, there are a few I find more reasons to fade. More importantly, there are some names surrounding those players that I really like the ownership leverage we can gain by rostering them. Ownership leverage is instrumental in finishing high in GPPs and large DFS tournaments. You've got to gain ground on the field with lower owned players that pop off.
Jon Rahm (20%) / Dustin Johnson (8%)
Dustin Johnson is the pivot play for me at only $400 more on DraftKings, but a projected ownership of 8%. I like experience more than usual here at TPC Boston. DJ has logged 36 rounds here over his career versus only 8 for Rahm. DJ's adjusted strokes gained total in that time span is 10th in the field among players with at least 8 rounds under their belt. Plus, DJ is in better form than Rahm. He won the Travelers a few weeks ago. He could've won the PGA Championship. Aside from his 3 consecutive rounds in the 80s in Ohio, he's been lights out. Rahm won the Memorial, but his overall performance since the restart just doesn't justify near 3x the ownership.
Patrick Reed (20%) / Hideki Matsuyama (14%)
Hideki Matsuyama provides $400 in salary relief on DraftKings, and in a range where just about everyone is over 10% due to balanced lineup construction efforts, I like his upside as much as anyone at TPC Boston. Hideki & Patrick have both logged over 20 rounds at TPC Boston, but Hideki has actually gained more adjusted strokes total. I guess Reed's getting a bump due to his win at the Northern Trust in 2019 (not at TPC Boston) and his recent high finishes. However, Deki's form has been extremely solid since the restart four T25's in his last 5 starts. The ball striking is there. As always, we're just waiting on the putter to get hot (but Bent grass is his best surface). Reed isn't a long hitter, and this course will require his long irons to be sharp. Over his career, Reed has broken dead even on approach shots from 200+ yards out. Deki bot on the other hand, has gained 3.3 from the same distance. I just feel like Hideki's floor is higher and he's less volatile overall at TPC Boston.
Gary Woodland (13%) / Si Woo Kim (8%)
Si Woo Kim is an easy decision to make when pivoting from the likes of Gary Woodland. Si Woo should've won the Wyndham last week, he hits it a mile, he scores in bunches when he's hot, and he's projected at nearly half the ownership for some dumb reason. Both players have a solid record here at TPC Boston, and although Si Woo has less rounds, he's still got 12 under his belt. Unlike Si Woo's extremely steady form the last 6 weeks, Gary has been rather inconsistent. Woodland can't hit a fairway to save his life, and he's only gained strokes on approach in 4 of 7 events since the restart and 1 of 7 off the tee. The ball striking just hasn't been there for the US Open champ. Rule #whatever is play Si Woo when Si Woo playing hot!