Monkey Knife Fight Prop of the Week | Sony Open 2021
How Does Monkey Knife Fight Work?
If you’re wondering what the hell is a Monkey Knife Fight, you’re not alone! However, we find Monkey Knife Fight to be one of the more unique daily fantasy golf or golf gambling offerings available. Plus, it’s legal in every state where fantasy sports operators are permitted so you don’t have to wait on your state to legalize more traditional sports betting.
Monkey Knife Fight offers a player the chance to win real money by choosing from a number of prop type offerings in a given tournament or contest. Unlike DraftKings, you’re not competing against other players or sharps. You’re just picking and choosing your favorite props MKF throws out there with either you winning or MKF winning. I started playing late in 2020 and won my golf props around 80% of the time. I don’t anticipate that heater to continue with this writeup in 2021, but I do think MKF offers a market for the educated golf handicapper to take advantage of on a weekly basis.
Every week there’s a PGA TOUR event or worldwide golf tournament offered on Monkey Knife Fight, I’m going to give you my absolute favorite prop of the week. I’d welcome our readers to tail the play and I’ll keep track of our win rate. I’ll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday each week to publish the play so we can determine if there’s a weather advantage for one wave or another, and gather all of our Caddie intel before locking in our play.
There are weeks when my confidence level in the prop will be higher or lower based on the Monkey Knife Fight lines and/or my intel on the tournament. For that reason, I thought I’d provide a rating scale to indicate how confident I’m feeling in the play. Regardless of the rating, the prop I post will by favorite prop offered for the entire event that week.
$ - Feels like a gamble, but I still like our chances
$$ - Gamblin by definition, but starting to feel like we stealin this one
$$$ - Entering lock territory
$$$$ - An edge has been found. How should we spend our winnings?
The Can't Miss (could maybe miss) MKF Prop of the week
We're off to a roaring start as last week's writeup crushed it to win 4x our money. DJ only needed 62 holes and Rahm and JT only needed 59 to hit the over on birdies or better. I'm rolling with another More or Less bet on Monkey Knife Fight this week and giving it another $$$$ rating. However, I'm only including the 2 player combo of Morikawa and Berger both over 19.5 birdies or better. I really debated on the 3 player prop involving Hideki, but didn't want to get cocky after last week. Let's keep the winning train rolling to win 2.5x our money for the Sony Open.
I considered the weather, winning score props, and playing conditions versus previous years. We know this year is looking to play easier than 2020. Cam Smith won last year with the highest winning score since 2010, so I'm throwing out 2020's data since this week looks to play like the years prior. The chance of rain is minimal until maybe late on Sunday afternoon and the only real threat of wind above 13mph is the early wave Thursday. Berger and Morikawa are both in the late wave on Thursday. Throwing out 2020, the winning scores here since 2015 have been -23, -20, -27, -17 & -22. I'm betting the winning score easily cracks -20 this year. According to DataGolf, these 2 are the fourth and fifth most likely to win with an 8.6% probability of one of them winning.
From 2017-2019, there were 19 players that had 20 or more birdies and eagles in those 3 years at the Sony Open. Berger and Morikawa each have an 80% chance of making the cut according to DataGolf, and it's fairly safe to assume they'd find themselves as the top scorers if they get all 4 days. You want to hear something really crazy...? Do you know who led the PGA TOUR in eagles in 2020? It wasn't DJ, or JT, or Bryson...it was Collin Morikawa! Despite Waialae only having 2 par 5's, the eagle rate is pretty high. I'd be shocked if Collin doesn't add an eagle or two to his birdie total this week. Both fit the "played Kapalua last week with a decent record at Waialae" narrative as well.
I'm choosing to max out the bet here at $50 to win $125, but MKF offers lower amounts depending on your risk tolerance. I'm not tracking dollars won or lost with this article, rather just tracking how many of these props I get right and how many I get wrong. So far for 2021, I'm 1-0. I'm fully confident this week and want to max it out. Let's go!