The Masters 2020
A patronless Masters in November is something I never dreamed of seeing in my lifetime. But damnit 2020 if you don't keep delivering the goods. The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club is a place I know well having grown up here, attended countless rounds growing up, and caddying for 2 years whilst in college. This shit sucks. But anyway...
We're going to look at 2 extremely popular names across DFS contests and why you could justify staying away. More importantly, I'm going to tell you about 2 other players with as much upside at significantly less projected ownership. Ownership leverage and equal or greater upside from the players we're pivoting away from is the name of the game every week for the Pivot Point article.
As I suspected on the podcast, ownership is somewhat spread out with such a strong field but there are a few names considerably more popular than most. DJ, Rahm, Xander and Finau are on track to be the highest owned of the names up top according to multiple trusted ownership sources. By the way, if you're not already subscribed to the Chalk Bomb email, go to the bottom right of this page and put in your email. Ben has some tremendous ownership DFS game theory content coming out today in the Chalk Bomb.
Patrick Reed (18%) / Brooks Koepka (12%)
Fatrick is a killer for sure, and his knowledge of Augusta (especially around the greens) will be extremely beneficial this week. However, to gain a few points in ownership leverage without losing any winning upside is the reason to pivot to Brooks. Aside from the victory, Patrick hasn't necessarily lit Augusta National on fire year in and year out. In the last five years, he has a T36, T49 and MC in The Masters. Plus, he's not one of the longest hitters out there and I believe length matters more this year than ever at Augusta in my opinion.
I love that Brooks fired 2 low rounds this past weekend in Houston after returning to his old driver. He said in his press conference yesterday that his knee feels as good as it's felt since early 2019. Brooks has improved at every start in The Masters with a T33 his first time out and a runner up last year. The win equity in a healthy Brooks Koepka in THE major he'd love to lock up is too attractive at roughly 12% ownership in large GPPs.
Jason Kokrak (20%) / Corey Conners (10%)
I loved Jason Kokrak on Saturday when we recorded the podcast, but apparently so did everyone else. The Masters 1st timer projected at 20% is the most textbook fade ever. Chalky $7K plays typically call for a fade in golf. Kokrak checks a ton of boxes for sure, except for the knowledge and experience at Augusta National box. If there's a stat he typically doesn't do well in, it's SG: ATG. I don't love that for him as Augusta National will require precise touch around the greens. This is purely a game theory fade given his skyrocketed ownership and bust potential.
My man Corey Conners offers a $400 DraftKings savings and equal if not better ball striking to Jason Kokrak. Plus, he's projected at half of Kokrak's ownership numbers. Now, Conners is historically a terrible putter for sure, but I believe the pure bent grass greens at Augusta may neutralize that some. Plus, Conners makes his 3rd start at the Masters after improving on his MC in year one with his T46 last year. Conners is long enough off the tee and one of the best pure iron players in the game of golf right now. I'd take my chances with the cheap, low owned ball striker making his 3rd appearance and just hope the putter doesn't lose strokes to the field.