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farmers

farmers insurance open 2022 DraftKings Preview

Stacked field ready to tee off at torrey pines

The American Express was the perfect event to kick off LongShot SZN and Hudson Swafford didn't disappoint us. The Swafficer won for the second time at PGA West claiming his third PGA Tour title. It's not looking good for LongShots this week though. A star-studded field has been assembled for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego, CA. Additionally, this years' Farmers Insurance Open will start on Wednesday. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend. 

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week. 

Wow! What a weekend for sports fans. We get Hudson Swafford taking down The American Express to restore Longshot SZN at over 250/1 and two incredible football games. BUF/KC goes down in history and the Swafficer grabs his third PGA Tour title. We loved Swafford last week. DB had Swaff on the Big Balls Betting Card and I posted this about him in the preview; "Swafford was my last sub in the 6ks last week and he made me eat it. Now we head to a place where he's won, comfortable, and coming in hot!? Ya, lock and load, Swafficer."

As mentioned, the PGA Tour has decided to schedule the Farmers Insurance Open around the NFL Conference Championships and will play Wednesday to Saturday. We have another multi-course rotation as well this week with rounds being played on the North Course and South Course at Torrey Pines.

All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!

The Field and Tournament Details for the Farmers Insurance Open

Well, well, well... Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines. This was always the REAL start of the PGA Tour season because it was always Tiger Woods' first event. Sadly, Tiger will not be in the field, but the rest of the best are. World #1 Jon Rahm tops the DraftKings pricing, having won his first PGA Tour event here in 2017, and of course, winning the US Open in 2021 on Torrey Pines South Course.

The likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and recent Sony Open champ, Hideki Matsuyama, round out the top 10 players in attendance, according to the Official World Golf Rankings. Those aren't the only studs as Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Daniel Berger, Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners, and Talor Gooch have committed as well.

Other than a few randoms, the list of past champs is pretty elite. Most notably, Tiger has seven Famers Insurance Open titles and another US Open win on Torrey Pines. Patrick Reed is the defending champion and in the field looking to go back to back. Some of the latest winners also include Marc Leishman (2020), Justin Rose (2019), Jason Day (2018,2015), Brandt Snedeker (2016,2012), Scott Stallings (2014), and Bubba Watson (2011).

Scoring has generally been all over the place here and is heavily dependent on the weather. Reed won at -14 in 2021 which was affected by some wet conditions. Rose shot the lowest score (-21) in 2019 which had held for 20 years when Tiger posted a 266 (-21) in 1999. The South Course was made a bit tougher in 2021 in preparation for the US Open. Some of the changes will be incorporated this year.

The players will have one less day of prep this week as well with Round 1 kicking off on Wednesday morning in San Diego. Fantasy players on the east coast will have a bit of tinker time in the morning. The field is set at 156 with the top 65 and ties making the cut

Torrey Pines Course Breakdown

  • Course: Torrey Pines (North & South Courses)
  • Location: San Diego, CA
  • Yardage: 7,258 (North); 7,765 (South)
  • Par: 72 (Both)
  • Grass: North - Bentgrass greens, Kikuyu overseeded with rye fairways/rough; South - Poa annua greens, Kikuyu overseeded with rye fairways/rough
  • Architect: William P. Bell and William F. Bell (1957)
  • Comp Courses: Augusta National, Whistling Straits, Quail Hollow, Riviera, Muirfield Village, Bethpage Black

It will be a tale of two sides this week as players try to scorch the North Course and survive the South Course at Torrey Pines. The field will play a round at each for the first two days before returning to the South for the final two rounds. Last year the North Course played almost four strokes easier than the South. Neither course is easy though as the North plays around a stroke and half below par while the South plays almost two strokes over par.

I won't get into the North Course as it doesn't make up much of the event. The South is the demon. The legend. It's the longest course on Tour rotation and the seventh toughest. Looking at FNGC's Historic Conditions we can see that scoring and hitting the fairway are both, difficult. The rough is long. The greens are Poa and fast as lightning.

Like any coastal course, the winds will roll off the water and the greens will break towards it. The weather doesn't look bad right now. No rain in the forecast and pretty tame winds. it won't be super warm but mid-60s for the PM waves. Other than the wind, the South Course is also protected by 82 bunkers and just one water hazard, waiting on the 18th hole.

Key Stats for the farmers insurance open at torrey pines

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Driving Distance
  • Fairways Gained
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
  • Scrambling
  • Bogey Avoidance

We have lots of data to process for the Farmers Insurance Open with so many years playing as a stop on the PGA. Unfortunately, only strokes gained data is available for the South Course but three of the four rounds are played there anyway. We know approach is huge every week. Irons are king on Tour. Greens in regulation are below average at Torrey making approach key. Putting has also been a key factor at Torrey Pines. The greens are tricky which is made worse by the tendencies of Poa. Scrambling has been difficult here and in consequence, makes three-putting an issue.

Driving distance and accuracy don't usually go hand in hand but in terms of top 20 %, the longer drivers outscore the shorter, more accurate ones. With that said, a guy who can do both can be deadly here. These fairways are the third narrowest on Tour. Par 5 Scoring is always going to be in an important stat, especially with a par 72. There are some looonnnggg par 5s here. Some long par 4s as well. A total of 11 of the par 4s play 450-500 yards with potential for more.

With all the trouble around, Bogey Avoidance is much more important than birdies this week. I always like to put them side by side in my model. Your picks have to score to earn points but too many bogeys on a week like this and they won't be playing all of it.

Here's a tidbit from our Nut Hut in-house caddie: "It’s a good total driving course but you don’t have to be super long. Peppering GIR and feeling comfy putting on poa are paramount."

If you are not yet a member, join the Tour Junkies crew and some brilliant minds in Goalby’s Nut Hut. The Nut Hut is a discord chat with tons of insight, caddie news, banter, trash talk, and most of all a collection of golf addicts that have won more than $4 million since the restart. Click the banner below to sign up!

The Picks & Fades

Each week we will give you some plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks make sure to check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast. 

To Play or Not to Play Brooks Koepka

BK is in! Brooksy played well here during the US Open but doesn't have a great history at the Farmers. He's still elite off the tee and a premium ball striker. The putter isn't where we want it to be but if Deki shows us anything, it can always get hot for one event.

**The picks will be updated Tuesday morning**

$9K & Above 

  • DB: Play - Jon Rahm | Fade - Dustin Johnson
  • Pat: Play - Will Zalatoris | Fade - Jordan Spieth
  • AC: Play - Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau | Fade - Daniel Berger

It's really hard not to like almost everyone up here. The winner is almost certainly going to come from this range and most of the top 10 will be littered with them. I won't dive in much but Burns played well here in 2021 and set the Tour ablaze after that. Ownership isn't available yet but I don't see how either Willy Z or Finau aren't super chalk. I still may play both of them. Finau is a course horse and Willy Z was a stud here last year. Willy Z kicked off his 2022 campaign pretty well last week.

Berger has only played once since the Tour Championship and that was in Hawaii. His history at Farmers isn't great and the putter has been bleeding strokes.

$8K Range

  • DB: Play - Mav McNealy | Fade - Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Pat: Play - Matthew Wolff | Fade - Corey Conners
  • AC: Play - Talor Gooch, Ryan Palmer | Fade - Patrick Reed

Gooch did underwhelm last week but he was one double away from playing Sunday and can't expect him to blaze the course every week. He still rates out super well and had a T3 here in 2019. Palmer is a course history play. A couple of T2s and a T13 in his last four tries. He's also a par 5 scoring machine and doesn't lack anything off the tee.

Reed has been shit and sketchy drop and all is not likely going to gain over eight strokes on and around the greens.

$7K Ranges

  • DB: Play - Luke List | Fade - Aaron Wise
  • Pat: Play - Justin Rose | Fade -
  • AC: Play - Adam Hadwin, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Rodgers | Fade - Joaquin Niemann

Like many events that feature stacked fields, the $7k is where it's at! Love this range. I'm not sure if I would love Hadwin as much if he wasn't Canadian but damn he's given me a good ride the last six months. He played well again last week and has fantastic form at Torrey including the US Open. Clark has been on a solid run as well. Showed some form last week to kick off 2022 and has a couple of T35s at Torrey he can improve on. I had scoped out Rodgers for here last week and wasn't disappointed with the T40. Rodgers has two top 10s at Torrey Pines and could get a sneaky one again this week.

Niemann hasn't found much luck at the Farmers and even at the US Open setup. It's also his first event since the RSM Classic so worth being late to the party.

$6K Range

  • DB: Play - JJ Spaun, Scott Stallings, Joseph Bramlett
  • Pat: Play - Greyson Sigg, JT Poston, Cameron Young
  • AC: Play - Adam Svensson, Taylor Pendrith, Henrik Norlander

Svensson has a hot hand and if not for a shitty final round at The AmEx could have had two solid events in a row. The Canadian has played the Farmers once, finishing T35 in 2019. Pendrith has not played the Farmers but has the game that should set up quite nicely here. Norlander got us a runner-up finish here last year. If he can tighten up off the tee and on approach, the putter is actually gaining nicely.

There ya go. Big boy week. Don't get too cute. This is a title these guys want. The weather looks great. Good luck!

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: KH Lee
IN: Austin Eckroat (sponsor); Jared Wolfe (in on the number)
Open qualifiers: 65 (-7) Jonathan Byrd (1 eagle, 5 birdies); 68 (-4) Jared du Toit (5 birdies, 1 bogey); Brent Grant (7 birdies, 3 bogeys); Max Sear (6 birdies, 1 double bogey)

*Field is set at 156