charles schwab challenge 2022 DraftKings Preview
the pga tour heads back to texas as colonial cc preps for 77th tour stop
Quite the finish to the PGA Championship netted us another win as Justin Thomas prevailed. Poor Mito Pereira... He was my favorite $6k and would have been an incredible story. I don't think we are going to see him crumble the next time. Which might even be this week! Mito is in Fort Worth, TX for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club along with JT, Scottie Scheffler, and everyone's favorite Texas golf prodigy, Jordan Spieth. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.Â
All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!
The Field and Tournament Details for the Charles Schwab Challenge
There does not appear to be much of a "Major Hangover" for a lot of studs as the field for the Charles Schwab Challenge is stacked. Even Justin Thomas, the winner of last week's PGA Championship is in the field. You could expect JT to WD any minute but according to the man himself, this is a very important stretch for him and he wants to play some golf!
Texas native and current world #1, Scottie Scheffler tops the field at $11,200 with JT at $11,000. Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth (2016 CSC champ), Will Zalatoris, and Viktor Hovland round out the $10ks. Sam Burns, Max Homa, Abraham Ancer, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, and the 2020 CSC champion, Daniel Berger, complete the $9k range. Other notables in the field include Talor Gooch, Tommy Fleetwood, Webb Simpson, Mito Pereira, Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, and the defending CSC champ, Jason Kokrak. It is still quite likely we get a couple of WDs from this group. Bryson is coming off of hand surgery and withdrew last week at Southern Hills.
Other past CSC champs in the field include Kevin Na (2019), Justin Rose (2018), Kevin Kisner (2017), Chris Kirk (2015), Zach Johnson (2010), and Rory Sabbatini (980 BC). The average winning score over the last 12 years is -14. -20 or better has only been done twice (Rose -20 & ZJ -21). The lowest was -9 when Adam Scott won in 2014.
Expect higher than average 6/6 %s across all contests this week as the field consists of only 120 players. The cutline will remove anyone outside of the top 65 with the rest battling for an $8.4 million purse. The winner will receive $1.512 million.
Charles Schwab Challenge Course Breakdown
- Course: Colonial Country Club
- Location: Fort Worth, TX USA
- Yardage: 7,209
- Par: 70
- Architect: John Bredemus/Perry Maxwell (1936)
- Grass: Bentgrass greens
- Comp Courses: Seaside Course (Sea Island), TPC Southwind, Harbour Town, Southern Hills, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac
The Charles Schwab Challenge has changed names many times over the years but its home has remained the same. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX is the longest-running host course on the PGA Tour. Dating back 76 years. There's no shortage of course history. In fact, CCC ranks 10th on DataGolf's course history relevance list.
If you were paying attention last week, you will notice that this is another Perry Maxwell design. The PGA Championship held at Southern Hills was also a Maxwell design and was mentioned as a comparable course to Colonial CC by last year's runner-up, Jordan Spieth. Colonial CC is a 7,200-yard Par 70 that features Bentgrass greens and Bermudagrass fairways/rough.
Don't expect a birdie-fest this week. Colonial CC plays as the 11th toughest course on the PGA Tour with a scoring average of +.32 over par. The fairways are the 4th most narrow and the greens are the 7th smallest. As you can expect, driving accuracy and greens in regulation are well below average. Driver isn't really a weapon here. A lot of guys will club down off the tee and sacrifice distance for precision. A second-shot golf course for sure.
Colonial CC is a tree-lined parkland-style course with an abundance of doglegs, lots of bunkers (over 80), and water in play on six holes. Like most stops in Texas, the wind is going to be a factor, and looks like Rounds 1, 3, and 4 are going to feel the brunt of it. Catch us in the Nut Hut for updates on the entire event leading up to the first tee.
Key Stats for the Charles Schwab Challenge
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Opps Gained
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Bentgrass Putting
The first task for the boys this week will be to find a favorable position on the fairway. The next and most important step will be to hit the tiny greens. Approach is key. Use FNGC's Opps Gained to get a closer look. Because the greens are so small, how guys do around them will influence scoring as well. Guys will be scrambling their asses off. I like looking at long-term putting on Bentgrass and fortunately, the last month has been full of Bentgrass greens which will be good to look at too.
There will still be lots of birdies made this week and you'll want to stack some guys that do it the best. Throw some BoB% and DK scoring into the model. Since there are only two Par 5s and one won't be reachable by most, a lot of scoring will be done on the Par 4s. Specifically, more than half of the holes on the course are between 350 and 450 yards.
Here's a tidbit from our Nut Hut in-house caddie: "Updated on Tuesday."
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Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Fades
Each week we will give you some plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks make sure to check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast.
To Play or Not to Play Brooks Koepka
Brooks is not in the field.
$9K & AboveÂ
- Play - Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau | Fade - Sungjae Im
Not much has to be said for JT. Worth paying up for. The same goes for Spieth, really. The two best buds are tearing things up. Spieth is the course horse for Colonial. Finau is not someone I thought I'd be on this week but here we are. The form is starting to come together and I think returning to a spot where he has found success might ignite the spark. Nothing worse than T29 here in his last four go's highlighted by a runner-up finish in 2019.
Sungjae had to WD from the PGA Championship due to Covid which will put this as his first PGA Tour action since the RBC Heritage. He rates out the worst for me over the last six months. He's 55th in approach and 112th in opps gained. He also has two missed cuts in his last three attempts at the CSC but does have a T10 in the middle.
$8K Range
- Play - Talor Gooch, Mito Pereira | Fade - Bryson DeChambeau (WD)
Gooch has a permanent seat on my roster. He should do well here this week. Coming off of a T20 at the PGA Championship and found the top 20 here last year as well. Everything is clicking nicely and if he has a good putting week, he can win this. Mito, Mito, Mito... I feel for ya dude. One more roll on 17. One less club on 18. That's golf though and I think Mito's going to get right back at it this week. it was still a huge paycheck for him and some awesome experience to draw from down the road. The game is sharp and although he hasn't played this event, the fit works.
We haven't seen Bryson pretty much all year. We won't see him again this week either!
$7K Range
- AC: Play - Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, Justin Rose | Fade - Patrick Reed
My model has been pretty bang-on at the top recently and this week it spit out Chris Kirk and Brian Harman. Both players have been dialed so far in 2022 and have great history at Colonial. Kirk won this event several years back and Harman has a couple of top 10s in the last five years. Including a T8 in 2021. They know how to hit fairways and play the shorter Par 4s fantastically. Coincidently, my third pick, Justin Rose, also plays those short Par 4s great. Rose is also a champion of this event and is 3rd overall in strokes gained total at Colonial.
Reed has some decent history but the form is whack. The approach game, Par 4 scoring, DK scoring, and hitting the fairway all need some work.
$6K Range
- Play - Kevin Streelman, JT Poston, Austin Smotherman
Streelman has only missed the cut here once in the last five years and has two T20s in the span. He's coming off of a T41 at the PGA Championship and ranks 27th in my model for the week. Nothing really jumps off the page stats-wise for Poston other than 7th in 400-450 Par 4 scoring. That will come in handy this week along with his T10 and T20 here over the last four years. The form is solid as well with top 10s at Wells Fargo and RBC heritage. Lastly, my guy SmoSho. Four straight made cuts with back-to-back top 25s in his last two events. His approach, opps gained, and fairways gained are all top 20.
There ya go. Nothing too crazy ownership-wise this week. Spieth will be chalky but warranted. How will Scheffler bounce back? Is JT coming for that #1 spot? We'll have lots of info in the Nut Hut and of course our live before bedtime on Wednesday night. Good luck!
THE INS & OUTS
*The field is 120