BMW Championship 2020
In this week's Pivot Point for the BMW Championship from Olympia Fields, we're taking a look at 3 players projected to be high owned across DraftKings GPPs and tournament that I think we can make a solid case for fading. The Pivot Point will vary week to week based on the "chalky" players, the field, and other factors.
We were a perfect 3/3 last week with all 3 pivots being lower owned and outperforming the chalkier players around them. As with last week, we have a very strong field with the best players in the world up top. That makes just about any name above $9K on DraftKings tough to fade, but there are some names that could warrant a pivot given equal upside with slightly less ownership. Ownership in general on DraftKings for the BMW Championship is spread out with so many big names, but we also only have 70 players in the field. So, I don't think we'll see anyone 30% owned, but I do think we'll see a high volume of players around that 15-20% number.
Remember, as the case with any limited field event and no cut, having ownership leverage in DFS is priority number one. It's going to be more difficult to create unique lineups in larger GPPs and you lose the edge of getting all six golfers through the cut since there isn't one. Ownership leverage while constructing your lineups is greater than your model, stats, and even form if you're trying to take down a big GPP. Those other metrics matter, but ownership leverage comes first. With that out of the way, let's try and win a GPP with a few high upside pivot plays!
Tyrrell Hatton (16%) / Jason Day (11%)
The margins are pretty slim this week, and I'm only giving 2 players since ownership is rather spread out. The top 4 highest projected players, I can't find much reason to fade (outside of ownership of course), and I'm only giving Pivot Point players if I feel very confident. Tyrrell Hatton certainly came out hot with the restart, but has certainly faded in his last 3 events, largely due to his putter not being as sizzling. He's a very flat stick dependent player. As for Jason Day, I mentioned on the podcast that I love staying on the horse after he burned 20% of lineups last week. But, so did a lot of higher owned studs. He just had 2 flat out ugly days with his irons at the Northern Trust on his way to a MC. Prior to that, his irons, driver, wedges and putter were smoking hot (for those keeping score...that's all the clubs). How quickly people are forgetting that prior to last week he had four top 7 finishes in a row! I believe the upside is well worth the reinvestment in this no cut event. I'm not worried about 2 bad days with irons for a proven veteran of his caliber. Spend the extra money (I know it's more than a few hundred from Hatton), and make up for it somewhere else.
Patrick Reed (14%) / Hideki Matsuyama (10%)
Rinse and repeat from this same write up last week with these two players. Hideki continues to give you the highest floor option with winning upside. Despite not having won in 3 years, I still believe he has the game and experience to win among the best in the world. Since the restart, Hideki has four top 25s, a T29 and 2 MCs. Oh and guess what...his best putting surface is bent grass where he happened to gain 2.7 strokes last week. The last time he's gained 2.7 strokes putting or more was the BMW Championship last year! If he can find a few more fairways this week, and keep the hot putter on bent grass, I don't see why he can't return a top 10. Reed on the other hand, has sucked finding fairways both in the short term and the long term. Here's an interesting comparison to Hideki and Reed: the last time Reed was positive in Fairways gained for 3 straight events was...never (going all the way back to 2012)! The last time Hideki did it was earlier in 2020 for the Waste Management, Genesis and WGC Mexico. You've got to find fairways this week to attack these pins. Fat Pat ain't cuttin it! Plus, he's been inconsistent with his approach play since the restart. He's only gained strokes on approach 5 times out of 10 events played since the restart.