Let’s Set the Table
We should start by acknowledging that weather advantages and tee time wave advantages appear to be completely irrelevant as of Wednesday afternoon unless you’re betting first round leaders. Pebble Beach will see not a drop of rain during the tournament and the current wind predictions look to be equitable and mild across all four days. However, we know wind can change quickly on the coast, but we can’t predict that now as we consider our pre tournament punts.
If you listened to our podcast this week, or follow any betting or DFS talking heads on Twitter, then you know what to expect with Pebble this week. It’s a shorter track. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour. You’ve got to be in the right positions off the tee, in the fairway, and you’ve got to hit the ball on the titties with your irons into these greens. When you miss the greens, you better be able to scramble your dick off to stay in the hunt. We think the winning score will be around 3 to 5 under par. That means bogey avoidance will be another stat we evaluate when looking at top plays. Pebble ain’t no joke, so we’re thinking throwing units at long shots may not be as prudent as other tournaments. You guys know we love betting some long shots in golf, but this week we’re hanging out in the middle range in terms of odds. The Tour Junkies is NOT the place you need to come to get short odds selections. We don’t like betting them in the highly variable game of golf, and we’ve been successful all year hitting big numbers. Go somewhere else to have a guy tell you DJ’s a good bet at 9/1. No shit Sherlock!
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First Round Leader Bets
The only real edge to be gained this week at Pebble in terms of first round leader bets is playing the morning guys. The early risers will face slightly softer, more receptive greens with POA surfaces as smooth as they’ll be all day. For that reason, all of our plays will be early wave boys. Remember, anyone can go low 1 day on the course. Anyone! Therefore, we will always go more mid to long odds guys for first round leader bets.
Tommy Fleetwood (40/1)
- 35th in SG: Total during Round 1 over the last 100 rounds
- Recent form not amazing, but Tommy’s a well known titty striker with the irons
- Tommy’s an elite scrambler. He’s done it over both the long term and short term.
- He’s 13th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama (45/1)
- 24th in SG: Total during Round 1 over the last 100 rounds
- Form is primed to win this week. He’s gained 29 strokes total in his last 4 PGA Tour events
- 1st in Opportunities Gained & 8th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds #ELITE
- 18th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds
- Deki-bot is another elite scrambler both in the short term and long term
Emiliano Grillo & Tyrrell Hatton (90/1)
- Grillo a lot better during first rounds over the last 100 than Hatton, but Hatton doesn’t suck
- Grillo’s form a little better too, but both have been playing pretty solid lately and arrive looking good.
- Grillo is a tremendous ball striker. He finds fairways and hits his irons extremely well. His chipping is not great.
- Hatton checks the box when it comes to finding fairways, and everything else is slightly better than average. Despite his hot temper, he’s top 25 in this field in bogey avoidance.
Erik Van Rooyan & Jason Dufner (100/1)
- EVR is hot right now. Finished 8th at the PGA Champ. 17th at last year’s Open Championship. Dude’s #HotAndConfident right now.
- Duff Daddy ain’t feeling too bad either with 2 T10s in his last 4 starts.
- In terms of stats, both are almost identical. They’ve been accurate off the tee, money with the irons, and pretty much suck in the short game area.
CT Pan (125/1)
- CT has a win & a T3 in his last 4 starts on tracks that demand accuracy and ball striking.
- He putts better on POA than any other green surface.
- Statistically, he’s just about top 50 in every relevant category. That’s not too bad for a guy in form at 125/1.
Again…screw your 20/1 Brooks punts. We’re here for the big tickets. The ones you put on your resume. We went pretty in depth with all these guys on the podcast, but we’ve added some context for those of you that may be deaf and can’t listen to our show.
Webb Simpson (45/1)
- 44 Strokes Gained Total over the last 5 tournaments including The PGA and The Masters. DAYUM!
- This is a better track for his game than either the PGA or Augusta. He checks every box. 45/1 is criminal.
Matt Kuchar (50/1)
- 38 Strokes Gained Total over the last 5 tournaments including The PGA and The Masters. Also…DAYUM!
- 5th in bogey avoidance, 12th in fairways gained, 12th in SG: Approach & 25th in Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds
Henrik Stenson (60/1)
- Henrik’s gained 27 strokes with his irons over his last 5 events. Folks…that’s hitting it on said titties.
- He can rely on the ol trusty 3 wood here. Let’s just pray he makes a few putts.
Ian Poulter (125/1)
- Poulter has been one of the best scramblers on the PGA Tour for the last 10 years, and he continues to scramble well and avoid big numbers.
- He’s accurate off the tee and shows up well at Majors.
- Prior to Colonial and the PGA Champ…Poults has been lights out.
Chezticle Reavie (250/1)
- Chez loves the West Coast. Putts better on POA than any other surface. He’s a winner on the PGA Tour.
- He’s played in 12 events in 2019 with four T20 finishes.
- He’s 1st in this field in Fairways Gained over the last 24 rounds and he’s 20th in Opportunities Gained.