Let’s Set the Table
DB here…we should start by acknowledging that weather advantages and tee time wave advantages appear to be completely irrelevant as of Wednesday afternoon unless you’re betting first round leaders. TPC Twin Cities has been cited as “soft” by just about every PGA Tour player interviewed this week, thus giving a slight edge to the longer hitting, early morning guys on Thursday. The fairways will see less runout, if any, and the greens will be their most receptive early in the day.
It’s another week on the PGA Tour with a brand new host site, and everyone is busy pontificating whether it will play Rocket Mortgage easy or will the winner be around -16 for the week. Either way, that means birdies (and maybe an eagle or 2 for the week) will be critical given we’re looking at betting guys who can either go Hot Pocket out the microwave hot in round 1 or win the whole damn tournament for an outright bet. Since we don’t have course history to look at, and everyone will be seeing this place for the first time, that means we’re going to lean heavier on form and course fit. In terms of gambling in the more traditional sense (as opposed to DFS), I’ll be focused on longer hitting guys in decent form that use their tee to green strengths in order to go L-O-W.
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First Round Leader Bets
The only real edge to be gained this week at TPC Twin Cities in terms of first round leader bets is playing the morning guys. For that reason, all of our plays will be early wave boys. Remember, anyone can go low 1 day on the course. Anyone! Therefore, we will always go more mid to long odds guys for first round leader bets. Plus, there’s always a good chance you end up having more than 1 guy tied atop the leaderboard after round 1, meaning you’ve got to split your winnings. I’m not going to get excited about splitting Tony Finau 3 ways at 28/1 for first round leader.
Sam Burns (90/1)
The LSU stud is having no problems making cuts on the PGA Tour. He’s having a hard time putting 4 good rounds together on a week to week basis, but he can certainly go low for any round on any day. He’s made his last 11 cuts, and he feels like a young guy that could put 4 together at any point and win a weak field event like this. Burns is a tee to green specialist. He’s top 20 in this field in SG: OTT over the last 12 rounds. He’s also a scorer! Like fo real scorer! He’s top 5 in both BoB% and Par 5 scoring over the last 36 rounds.
Doc Redman & Max Homa (100/1)
The Doc is coming off one helluva week in Detroit. He got hot and won the Monday Q to get in, then stayed hot to finish solo 2nd on his way to securing his temporary status on the PGA Tour. He gained nearly 7 strokes tee to green last week. This is just a scenario where you ride the really hot hand that can play a little more free after securing a job (kinda) after a nice pay day.
Homa (great podcast interview by the way found here) won on Quail Hollow only a few weeks ago. That’s a tough field and golf course to pull off your first PGA Tour victory. His best finish since is only a T27, but he’s been consistently gaining strokes off the tee and with his irons. His chipping and putting is the big question mark, but if he steps that up to slightly above average…he’s got the stones to win.
Matt Jones, Hank Lebioda & Trey Mullinax (125/1)
The only exposure we’ll have to Matt Jones and Trey Mullinax will be here in the first round leader category. Both can bomb it, take advantage of par 5’s, and get hot for a round. So…add that to an early tee time and long odds, and we’ll bite for a half unit.
Hank Lebioda (another tremendous podcast interview found here) on the other hand, we’ve got exposure to in DFS as well given how consistent he’s been lately. He’s only missed 4 cuts since January, and like Burns, just can’t put 4 together. However, when he’s on for a round, he can get stupid low. He’s T25 in BoB%, Par 5 scoring, and GIR over the last 36 rounds.
Again…screw your 10/1 Brooks punts. We’re here for the big tickets. The ones you put on your resume.
Charles Howell III (55/1)
Charles isn’t known for winning, but he got it done this past November since gas was less than a dollar per gallon. He gained strokes everywhere but on the putting greens last week in Detroit, and we think he’ll be attacking this course with veteran-like vigor!
Sam Burns (110/1)
Maybe this is the week he plays well more than 3 out of the 4 rounds. Can someone tell Sam that a golf tournament is 4 rounds?!
Sepp Straka (125/1)
Goooooooooooooo Dawgs! Sic em! The UGA product is starting to his stride on the ol PGA Tour, and we’re here for yet another incredible talent out of THE University of Georgia. Sepp finished 11th last week while gaining strokes everywhere! In his brief PGA Tour career, his best putting performances have come on bentgrass greens like the ones he’ll see this week. Oh and you want to hear some stats…? He’s 8th in SG: OTT and 21st in GIR over the last 12 rounds.
Max Homa (140/1)
Won Quail Freakin Hollow like 2 moon cycles ago.