AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2021
We're going to look at 2 extremely popular names across DFS contests and why you could justify staying away. More importantly, I'm going to tell you about 2 other players with as much upside at significantly less projected ownership. Ownership leverage and equal or greater upside from the players we're pivoting away from is the name of the game every week for the Pivot Point article.
Willy Z (20%) / Jordan Spieth (14%)
William Zalatoris $9900 20% - The young stud continues his streak of great finishes while still only holding temporary membership on tour. He travels back to his home state this week to take on Pebble Beach and is considered one of the top favorites to win by most sportsbooks. He trails only Patrick Cantlay in current odds sitting at 16/1. He’s an elite ball striker that’s currently in great form. He has actually played in this event back in 2018 but failed to make the cut.
Jordan Spieth $9700 14% - $9700 Jordan Spieth???? GTFO of here…..If you are paying $9700 for Spieth and not worried, you are a Psychopath. Jordan fell back into the hearts of golf fans last week as he put on a show in Phoenix on Saturday. Jordan shot a 61 to put himself into the final group on Sunday, and had a lot of fun doing it. He got hot with his irons and used his elite short game to jump up the leaderboard despite not finding much grass off the tee. Despite being in poor form all of last year, Jordan still found a top 10 here in 2020.
Why Pivot?: Something was different about Jordan Spieth last week. You could easily look at him and see the confidence and see the fun he was having. He even pointed out and cheered on the drunk guy getting arrested near the 17th green. Golf is a game of confidence and I think last week was huge for Spieth. He has another opportunity to continue building that confidence this week at an event where he has had great success already. Yes, his OTT game is incredibly poor but I think OTT is less relative this week than most. He’s a great iron player with an elite short game that will set him up for success this week. In 16 rounds at Pebble Beach he’s 4th in this field in total strokes gained. Zalatoris has been in great recent form but this isn’t the same bomb and gouge track that he has seen the past two weeks. The greens are small and if you are not hitting them, you will need to rely heavily on your short game to keep you in it. Can Zalatoris handle the pressure of being a top favorite this week? Yes, he’s a young talented 24 year old, but at 24 years old…..Jordan Spieth had already won 3 major championships.
Francesco Molinari (18%) / Max Homa (13%)
Francesco Molinari $9300 18% - Back 2 back top 10s to start the year has left us with a very chalky Molinari. Franny has looked really sharp coming back from a lengthy hiatus in 2020. He’s ranked 10th in the field in ball striking since the first of the year. He also managed a 16th place finish at the US open here back in 2019.
Max Homa $8800 13% - Max is rounding into form and comes to the AT&T with a 14th and 10th place finish in his last two trips. Max is currently sitting in a value range on DK with tons of good options around him. He’s currently priced at his all time high and has not even cracked a top 10 in the past 6 months. He has been more entertaining on twitter with his public swing critiquing than he has been in DFS lately. That all comes to an end this week.
Why Pivot? Yes, Molinari is flashing good form, but I’m not comfortable with him being the staple in my lineups at such high ownership. He’s terrible at putting in general and even worse on POA. Something tells me he isn’t a big fan of pebble beach as he has very little history at this place outside of the US open in 2019. Meanwhile, Homa has finally taken his swing advice and applied it to his own game. He’s currently striping it with his irons and is 2nd in the field the past two weeks in opportunities gained. Homa will convert more of those opportunities this week as he comes to his best putting surface and looks to continue his good run at the AT&T.
Written by: Tim Gaymon (TH803)